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Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington

Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington . Part 1 Sea Level Rise by Robert S. Cole The Evergreen State College. Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington (Part 1) Abstract.

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Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington

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  1. Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington Part 1 Sea Level Rise by Robert S. Cole The Evergreen State College

  2. Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington (Part 1)Abstract This case study is an introduction to the potential impacts of global climate change on some of the Tribal lands in Washington State. It explores specifically the impacts of sea level rise on Tribal lands in coastal regions, or in the Puget sound region. The case is based upon the scientific evidence for global climate change, and the measured sea level rise in Seattle over the past century. The case examines the effects of winter storm surges coupled with high tides, as well as the increased rate of sever winter storms and associated flooding in river and estuary regions. This case is designed as a ‘clicker case’ to be used in conjunction with interrupted lecture or interrupted workshop formats of presentation.

  3. At a meeting of Tribal, federal, state, and academic people interested the impacts of global climate change on sea level rise in Washington state, several presenters showed some slides of likely scenarios. This case examines some of the issues that are of direct interest to anyone living along coastal regions, or along the shoreline of Puget Sound: Impact of sea level rise; Impact of winter storms on tidal levels;

  4. CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the scientific evidence for global climate change? • There is clear scientific evidence that humans are significantly affecting the Earth’s climate. • There is no scientific evidence that the climate of the earth is changing. • There is some evidence for climate change, but absolutely no evidence that human activities are affecting the change. • There is some evidence that humans are having an effect on climate. 4

  5. CQ #2: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the consequences for humans of global climate change? • The effects of climate change, if any, will be small compared to natural changes that have occurred before. • The effects of climate change will be minor except in poor, less developed countries, or in remote regions. • Climate change will significantly affect many countries. • The effects of climate change will be catastrophic around the world. 5

  6. “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. … Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

  7. 2500+ expert scientific reviewers 800+ contributing authors 400+ lead authors from 130+ countries 6 years work 1 report

  8. +35% +142% +18% Changes in atmospheric composition • Human activities have increased the concentration of the major greenhouse gases • Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide now far exceed pre-industrial (~1750) values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years • From a longer-term perspective, these changes are enormous: • CO2: higher than any time in past ~20 million years • CH4: higher than any time in past 420,000+ years IPCC 2007

  9. Long timescale changes Source: Climate Impacts Group – University of Washington

  10. Measured Sea Level Rise at Seattle Hugh Shipman, Department of Ecology http://depts.washington.edu/uwconf/psgb/proceedings/papers/6a_shipm.pdf

  11. CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the above slide, which statement do you think best characterizes the local consequences of climate change on sea level? • The trend in global temperature increase will have only a minimal increase in sea level, because the sea level rise in the last 100 years was only about six inches. • The trend in global temperature increase will have no effect locally. • The trend in global temperature increase may have noticeable consequences in the next 100 years for human settlements near sea level. • The trend in global temperature increase will lead to a sea level rise of 50 feet in the next 100 years.

  12. The Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington predicts that: • There will be a rise in average temperature throughout the 21st century; • There will be sea level rise in the Puget Sound region throughout the 21st century; • There will be a significant alteration of the hydrological cycle in the Pacific Northwest throughout the 21st century; • All of this will have substantial impact on the salmon runs, timber production, hydroelectric energy production, agriculture, and land areas close to sea level.

  13. Sea Level Sea level rise (SLR) will increase the risk of flooding, erosion, and habitat loss along most of Washington’s 2,500 miles of coastline. Global SLR: 7” – 23” by 2100 Medium estimates of 13” for Puget Sound by 2100 Higher estimates up to 4 feet in Puget sound cannot be ruled out at this time. http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetalslr579.pdf

  14. A sea level rise of one foot will have its greatest impact on the shore at high tide. Olympia, Washington with blue color showing areas that would be flooded at high tide with a one foot rise in sea level.

  15. Olympia: Sea Level Rise -- Time to sink or swim

  16. Tides are the highest in the winter season in the northern hemisphere. This is because the Earth is closer to the sun in the northern hemisphere winter than it is in the northern hemisphere summer. The strength of the sun’s gravitational pull and the moon’s gravitational pull both affect the heights of the tides. Each month of the year, the tidal range is greatest when the sun and moon align.

  17. Each month of the year, the tidal range is greatest when the sun and moon align. Those times are called “spring tides,” although they have nothing to do with the season spring. http://www.onr.navy.mil/focus/ocean/motion/tides2.htm

  18. The tides in Puget Sound can be raised even further by strong river water runoff from rain associated with winter storms. Photo by Rob Cole Photo by Rob Cole High tide plus major river runoff from winter storm Highest tide of the year

  19. The tides in Puget Sound can be raised even further by strong river water runoff from rain associated with winter storms. Photo by Rob Cole Photo by Rob Cole High tide plus major river runoff from winter storm Highest tide of the year

  20. The effects of sea level rise will also be compounded by the effects of high waves associated with winter storms. Image courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology

  21. Winter storm surges of high waves Whidbey Island February 4, 2006 Anacortes 4 February, 2006 Source: Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy http://climatechange.transportation.org/pdf/starkwsdot.pdf

  22. CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the above slides, which statement do you think best characterizes the local consequences of climate change on sea level? • Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6 feet in Puget Sound . • Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6 inches in Puget Sound. • The difference between high and low tide levels is greatest in the season we call spring. • Sea level rise is compounded by the effects of river water runoff and by high waves in storm surges.

  23. Coastal Flooding Extreme high water levels will increase over time Flood events of any given magnitude will become more frequent Longer flood durations Drainage of low-lying areas more difficult

  24. Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology, and Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy(WADOT)http://climatechange.transportation.org/pdf/starkwsdot.pdf

  25. Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology

  26. Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology

  27. Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology

  28. Tribal Lands with Inundation Threats Hoh Reservation Quileute Reservation http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/GeologyPublicationsLibrary/Pages/tsuevac.aspx

  29. Makah Reservation Lummi Reservation http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/GeologyPublicationsLibrary/Pages/tsuevac.aspx

  30. CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the above slides, which statement do you think best characterizes the potential consequences of sea level rise for some Tribal Reservations? • Sea level rise presents no threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline, but tsunamis do present a threat. • Sea level rise presents only a minor threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline. • Sea level rise presents a significant threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline. • Sea level rise is not occurring quickly enough to pose a threat to Tribal lands for at least another 50 years.

  31. Discussion Given the slides that you’ve seen, spend a few minutes discussing the possible responses that federal, state, and local governments might take to work with Tribes to minimize the danger to them of sea level rise. What might Tribes do to educate the rest of society about the threats of sea level rise to Tribal peoples and to others living in coastal regions?

  32. Now Let’s See What Some Tribes are Doing In Response 2003: “The American Indian and Alaska Native Leadership Statement On Global Warming” 2006: Indigenous Peoples around the Pacific Rim produced the report: “ Climate Change and Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations.” 2008: “Native Peoples: The ‘Miners Canary’ of Climate Change”

  33. 2009: “A Tribal White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation From the Intertribal Climate Change Working Group” 2010: “Northwest Tribes: Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change” 2010: “Swinomish Climate Change Initiative: Climate Adaptation Action Plan” 2010: “Tribal Recommendations for the Fiscal Year 2012 Department of Interior Climate Change Adaptation Initiative”

  34. The Hoh Tribe has moved their sea level village to higher ground. • The Quileute Tribe has moved some buildings to higher ground, and is in the process of negotiating for land adjacent to its Reservation to move more of the Tribal buildings to higher ground. • The Swinomish Tribe has identified portions of its Reservation that are at high risk of inundation, and has produced a series of adaptation strategies.

  35. The Skokomish Tribe is acquiring land adjacent to its Reservation, and moving some of their buildings to higher land. • The Tulalip Tribe is doing land use studies with an eye to mitigating the effects of climate change. • All of the other Tribes along the Pacific coast and in the Puget Sound region have formed climate change planning, adaptation and mitigation groups.

  36. The following groups are just a few of the groups that have taken an active role in climate change action planning, and continue to be excellent resources regarding climate change adaptation: The National Congress of American Indians http://www.ncai.org/ The Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission http://nwifc.org/ The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians http://www.atnitribes.org/ Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission http://www.critfc.org/ The National Tribal Environmental Council http://www.ntec.org/ Natural resources Law Center, University of Colorado Law School http://www.colorado.edu/law/centers/nrlc/

  37. Questions to Consolidate Your Learning

  38. CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the scientific evidence for global climate change? • There is clear scientific evidence that humans are significantly affecting the Earth’s climate. • There is no scientific evidence that the climate of the earth is changing. • There is some evidence for climate change, but absolutely no evidence that human activities are affecting the change. • There is some evidence that humans are having an effect on climate. 38

  39. CQ #2: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the consequences for humans of global climate change? • The effects of climate change, if any, will be small compared to natural changes that have occurred before. • The effects of climate change will be minor except in poor, less developed countries, or in remote regions. • Climate change will significantly affect many countries. • The effects of climate change will be catastrophic around the world. 39

  40. CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the slides in this case, which statement do you think best characterizes the local consequences of climate change on sea level? • The trend in global temperature increase will have only a minimal increase in sea level, because the sea level rise in the last 100 years was only about six inches. • The trend in global temperature increase will have no effect locally. • The trend in global temperature increase may have noticeable consequences in the next 100 years for human settlements near sea level. • The trend in global temperature increase will lead to a sea level rise of 50 feet in the next 100 years.

  41. CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the slides in this case, which statement do you think best characterizes the local consequences of climate change on sea level? • Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6 feet in Puget Sound . • Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6 inches in Puget Sound. • The difference between high and low tide levels is greatest in the season we call spring. • Sea level rise is compounded by the effects of river water runoff and by high waves in storm surges.

  42. CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the slides in this case, which statement do you think best characterizes the potential consequences of sea level rise for some Tribal Reservations? • Sea level rise presents no threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline, but tsunamis do present a threat. • Sea level rise presents only a minor threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline. • Sea level rise presents a significant threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline. • Sea level rise is not occurring quickly enough to pose a threat to Tribal lands for at least another 50 years.

  43. References Boyd 2010, Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy, Nancy Boyd, Washington State Department of Transportation, December 2010, http://climatechange.transportation.org/pdf/starkwsdot.pdf (accessed May 28, 2011) DNR 2007, Tsunami Evacuation Brochures, Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR), 2007, http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/GeologyPublicationsLibrary/Pages/tsuevac.aspx (accessed May 22, 2011) Hannah 2007, Native Communities and Climate Change: Protecting Tribal Resources as Part of National Climate Policy, Jonathan M. Hannah, Natural Resources Law Center University of Colorado Law School, 2007, http://www.colorado.edu/law/centers/nrlc/publications/Climate_Report_Exec_Summary.pdf (Accessed Aug 20, 2011) International Indian Treaty Council 2003, The American Indian and Alaska Native Leadership Statement on Global Warming, International Indian Treaty Council, 2003, http://www.treatycouncil.org/new_page_52441111211111.htm (accessed July 28, 2011) IPCC 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 – Synthesis Report, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), http://www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed May 22, 2011)

  44. References (continued) McNutt 2008, Native Peoples: The “Miners Canary” of Climate Change, Northwest Indian Applied Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2008, http://nwindian.evergreen.edu/pdf/climatechangereport.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011) McNutt 2010, Northwest Tribes: Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change, Northwest Indian Applied Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2010, http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/climatechangebooklet.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011) McNutt 2010, Northwest Tribes: Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change, Northwest Indian Applied Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2010, http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/climatechangebooklet.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011) Mote 2008, Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of Washington State, Philip Mote, Alexander Petersen, Spencer Reeder, Hugh Shipman, and Lara Whitely Binder, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group and the Washington Department of Ecology, January 2008, http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetalslr579.pdf (accessed May 28, 2011) National Congress of American Indians 2010, Tribal Recommendations for the Fiscal Year 2010 Department of Interior Climate Change Adaptation Initiative, Nov. 2010, http://www4.nau.edu/tribalclimatechange/resources/docs/res_TribalRec2012DOICCAdaptInit_52011.pdf

  45. References (continued) ONR 2005, Office of Naval Research, Science & Technology Focus, website: http://www.onr.navy.mil/focus/ocean/motion/tides2.htm (accessed May 28, 2011) Parker et. al. 2006, Climate Change and Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations, Alan Parker et. al., Northwest Indian Applied Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2006, http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/climatechangebooklet.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011) Sharp et. al. 2009, A Tribal White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation From the Intertribal Climate Change Working Group, Fawn Sharp et. al., Intertribal Climate Change Working Group, August, 2009, http://209.206.175.157/documents/climatechange.pdf (accessed July 28, 2011) Shipman 2009, The Response of the Salish Sea to Rising Sea Level: A Geomorphic Perspective, Hugh Shipman, Washington State Department of Ecology, 2009 http://depts.washington.edu/uwconf/psgb/proceedings/papers/6a_shipm.pdf (accessed May 28, 2011) Swinomish Indian Tribal Community 2010, Swinomish Climate Change Initiative website: http://www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change/climate_main.html Note in particular: Swinomish Climate Change Initiative Climate adaption Action Plan, October 2010 http://www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change/Docs/SITC_CC_AdaptationActionPlan_complete.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011)

  46. References (continued) Wildcat 2009, Red Alert: Save the Planet with Indigenous Knowledge, Daniel R. Wildcat, Fulcrum Publishing, 2009. ISBN: 978-1555916374 Unger 2011, Sea Level Rise and Ocean Acidification, Kurt Unger, Washington State Department of Ecology, 2011, (personal communication) United Nations 2008, United Nations Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, March 2008, http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf (Accessed Aug 20, 2011)

  47. For Further Study An excellent series of case studies that explores different aspects of global climate change and Tribal peoples can be found at the website of the Enduring Legacies Native Case Studies Project: http://nativecases.evergreen.edu/collection/themes/climate-change.html

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