Where to Tan and Buy Beach Property: An Overview on Global Warming

1. Where to Tan and Buy Beach Property: An Overview on Global Warming Dennis Baldocchi Professor of Biometeorology Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management & Berkeley Atmospheric Science Center Defend Science, April, 2006

2. Knowledge is Power • Background • ‘Greenhouse-Effect’ Principles • Historic and Current Observations • Methods • Trace Gases • Temperature • Sea Level and Sea Ice • Model Predictions • Scientists Defending Global Warming

3. Physics of the Atmosphere

4. Climate Concepts • Atmosphere is a Dynamic and Complex System • Multiple Positive and Negative Feedbacks that operate across a Spectrum of Time and Space Scales • Non-Linear Processes • Sensitivity to Initial Conditions • Thresholds and Tipping Points

5. Schellnhuber, Tipping Point

6. Radiative Balance of Earth without an Atmosphere Radiation intercepted by Earth equals that radiated back into space. Trad~251 K = -22 C s 4 (1-a)S*/4= T -2 Solar constant, S*=1366 W m albedo, a = 0.33

8. Many Atmospheric Trace Gases Absorb & Re-emit Infrared Radiation HI-Tran Database

9. Radiation Streams in a Greenhouse Atmosphere Temperature of Earth with Atmosphere: Tsfc~288 K

10. Trends in Trace Gases:Ancient and Recent

11. Paleo- CO2 and Temperature Record

13. Changing CO2 Re-enforces T anomalies

14. Bender, GBC, 2003

15. Contemporary CO2 Record

16. 13C Isotope record: Evidence of Fossil Fuel Combustion • Plant based Carbon has a 13C signature ~ -25 per mil • Combustion of Fossil Fuels Dilutes the Atmospheric Background

17. Atmospheric CO2 Burden

18. Evidence of Global Warming :Direct and Indirect Confirmation by Multiple Methods • Observations • Climate Networks (~1850 to present) • Air, Sea and Soil Temperature Networks • Phenology Networks • Date of flowering (lilac, cherries, fruit trees) • Timing of grape harvest • Sea Level • Tree Rings (~1000 to present) • Stable Isotopes • Ice Cores (600 kyr BCE to present) • Oxygen isotope ratio (18O/16O) in calcium carbonate of seashells (forams) • Satellite Observations • Length of Growing Season (1970s to present) • Extent of Sea Ice • Modeling • Global Circulation-Climate Models • Diagostic • Prognostic

19. Temperature Anomaly Trends:Instrument Record Waple et al 2002 BAMS

20. Proxy Temperature Record: Tree Rings, Coral, sediments, ice cores Courtesy of ME Mann, Penn State

21. Climate Statistics:Mean vs Probablity Distribution • Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes • El Nino/La Nina • Extra-Tropical, Severe Winter Storms • Precipitation, Drought • Temperature, Extreme Heat and Cold • Floods, Winter Storms, Thunderstorms • Thunderstorms: Hail, Lightening, Fire, Tornados

22. Hansen et al. 2005, JGR

23. Climate Proxy: Beginning of growing season and temperature in Germany Chmielewski, AgForMet

24. Change in Arctic Ice and Greenland NOAA/CIRES Arctic Ice Extent

25. What’s Happening Locally?:Sea Level at Ft Point http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/

26. Baldocchi and Wong, 2006, Cal EPA Report

27. Future Conditions

28. Climate Model Refinements • Sulfate aerosols • Transient Changes in Trace Gases • Suite of Radiative trace gases, CO2, H2O, CFC, N2O • Coupled ocean and atmosphere • Cloud/water vapor feedbacks • Finer Resolution, 19 layers, 250 km grid • Improved Land Surface schemes • BATS, SIB-I, SIB-II, LSX

29. GFDL/NOAA http://www.gfdl.gov/~rjs/stouffer_MBO.html

31. Sealevel Rise, GFDL,/NOAA http://www.gfdl.gov/~tk/climate_dynamics/fig4.gif

32. Further Refinements • Coupling Climate, Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Dynamic models • Climate Change is needed to predict Vegetation Changes • Changes in Vegetation affects land/surface interactions and Climate • Mass and energy fluxes are constrained by links to Biogeochemistry • Assess changes in landcover due to mankind

33. Defenders of Climate Science • Michael Mann, Penn State • James Hansen, NASA/GISS

34. Michael Mann, Penn State • Was subject to criticism of ‘Hockey stick’ Climate data, which was featured in IPCC report • McIntyre and McKitrick (2003, GRL), an Mining Executive and an Economistis falsely claim that the ‘hockey stick’ is an artifact of the use of series with infilled data and the convention by which certain networks of proxy data were represented • Other Critics (von Storch, Science; Burger and Cubasch, GRL) detrended proxy data before calibration • In 2005, Texas Representative Joe Barton, chair of the United States House of Representatives’ Energy and Commerce Committee and a global warming skeptic, demanded information on the location of data archives, computer codes, grant awards, and other research details from Mann and his hockey stick colleagues. • Details are available at http://branch.ltrr.arizona.edu • National Academy Science has been commission to report on paleoclimate reconstruction • Mann expects that this report will reaffirm ours and other studies leading to the same common conclusion, that late 20th century warmth is anomalous in this context www.realclimate.org

35. James Hansen, NASA/GISS • Subject of 60 Minutes Interview and New York Times article on Restrictions by NASA for Scientists to communicate with Journalists and on having had research results and reports edited by Bush Administration staff. • The new NASA guidelines prohibit the editing of reports to alter scientific data, as well as any public affairs management of NASA projects by non-agency institutions. • NASA scientists may draw conclusions from their research and communicate them to the media, but "must make clear that they are presenting their individual views — not the views of the agency — and ask that they be sourced as such.“ (April 2, 2006) • the new policy is a substantial improvement • "things have changed dramatically since this became a public issue ... hopefully similar things will happen at other agencies that have had problems." (James Hansen)

36. Conclusions • Climate system is inherently noisy, but Trends are Emerging • We view climate system with multiple tools at multiple time and space scales • Consistent and Repeatable Patterns are Arising • Climate Forecasts are based on fundamental principles of Physics, Biology and Chemistry • Climate Change is Associated with many complex feedbacks • Change can be slow at first, but accelerate later as ice-caps melt, albedo decreases and moisture in the atmosphere increases • Science is Not Democratic • Hypotheses are Rejected and Accepted based on observation and theoretical principles • Policy and Science • Society is holding Climate Change Scientists to a much Higher Burden of proof than for other economic and political decisions (eg Weapons of Mass Destruction, War in Iraq, Purchase of stocks and bonds). • It is prudent and pre-cautionary to rely on the ability of scientifically-based models to predict trends through and out of inherently noisy environmental signals in order to make effective policy • Penny wise versus Dollar Foolish • The Long-Term costs of responding to unmitigated climate change could far exceed the current savings associated with doing nothing now(health, governmental stability); • We need to Change How Business is Accounted by Internalizing Externalities. • The current cost of oil does not reflect the effects of climate change on societies and ecosystems

37. Climate Skeptics • Senator James Inhofe, OK • ‘Global Warming is a Hoax’ • Michael Crichton, Author • State of Fear • Patrick Michaels, State Climatologist, Virginia • "The American people have just been bludgeoned with climate disaster stories for God knows how long," …"and they're just, they've got disaster fatigue.“ (ABC News) • Robert Novak claims that Hansen in 1988 over-predicted global warming by 400% (a story originated by Pat Michaels and subsequently propagated by Michael Crichton) • Fred Singer

38. Radiative Forcing Hansen et al 2005 JGR

39. 2x CO2 and ground Temperature http://www.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/co2hansen.cgi