1 / 22

China’s Economy and the NPC

China’s Economy and the NPC. Albert Keidel Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council of the United States AKeidel@Keidel.us. March 17, 2010 International Economics Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington, DC. Annual GDP Growth and Inflation, 1980-2009.

kris
Download Presentation

China’s Economy and the NPC

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. China’s Economy and the NPC Albert Keidel Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council of the United States AKeidel@Keidel.us March 17, 2010 International Economics Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington, DC

  2. Annual GDP Growth and Inflation, 1980-2009

  3. Quarterly GDP Growth, Year-on-Year, 2008-09

  4. Quarter-on-Quarter, Seasonally Adjusted

  5. PBoC’s Seasonal Adjustments Differ Some

  6. Even if Quarter-on-Quarter settles at 8% …

  7. … headline Year-on-Year growth looks too high.

  8. … and PBoC estimates make it look even higher.

  9. Quarterly Trade, 2009-2010

  10. Monthly Trade and Balances, 2009-2010 Feb.

  11. Growth: Domestic & Foreign Demand, 2008-09

  12. Quarterly GDP component growth and growth contributions

  13. Month-on-month CPI inflation is up … To an annualized 12-percent rate. How bad could this be? Maybe not bad.

  14. Is the RMB too low? … or too high?! After the euro fell in July, 2008 China decided not to let the RMB depreciate against the US$

  15. In economics -- this identity is always true … … but, which causes which? Foreign Surplus = Foreign Savings It is fashionable to say that the savings causes the surplus … but in China’s case, this is doubtful.

  16. Let’s focus on exports and GDP growth … Foreign Surplus = Foreign Savings Exports – Imports = GDP – Domestic Demand Does GDP growth push up exports? … … or, does demand for exports pull up GDP?

  17. Current Account Imbalances for the U.S., China and Rest of the World

  18. U.S. Consumer Credit and Current Account Balance

  19. Was this caused by the exchange rate?

  20. Where were the Surpluses? China is there too, but came to the party late …

  21. The End Thank you AKeidel@keidel.us

More Related