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Connecting More Dots: Green Infrastructure, Watersheds and Finance

Connecting More Dots: Green Infrastructure, Watersheds and Finance. John D. Wiener, J.D., Ph.D. Research Associate, Institute of Behavioral Science University of Colorado john.wiener@colorado.edu ibs.colorado.edu/wiener For Universities Council on Water Resources

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Connecting More Dots: Green Infrastructure, Watersheds and Finance

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  1. Connecting More Dots: Green Infrastructure, Watersheds and Finance John D. Wiener, J.D., Ph.D. Research Associate, Institute of Behavioral Science University of Colorado john.wiener@colorado.edu ibs.colorado.edu/wiener For Universities Council on Water Resources Pittsburgh, PA, 25 June 2018 Note: This presentation updates several large heavily-referenced sets of slides posted previously, with very little duplication. The posted slides are intended to provide quick references and wide coverage. This presentation as posted is an update and advancement.

  2. The dots are tips of icebergs of literature… • Presentation really about why cities, water providers, and regional coalitions should form partnerships for • Improvement of watersheds, • Conservation of MONEY by cost-effective green infrastructure • Conservation of agricultural productivity, and restoration of soils in the best interests of all • And investment of different kinds of resources for these purposes – not just cash or financial debt. • Starting off with some of what is at stake with business-as-usual…

  3. Cover: Farms Under Threat: The State of America’s Farmland. American Farmland Trust, May 9, 2018 Headlines: The rate of loss of high-quality farmland is about DOUBLE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES – high-quality lands only 17% of continental US agricultural land… The loss of periurban farmland is especially troubling because of its high-value farming and high quality. New report done with Conservation Science Partners applies new modeling and data in GIS to assess land for Productivity, Versatility, and Resiliency. Next report: state-level data. Measures land lost to low-density rural residential use. https://www.farmlandinfo.org/sites/default/files/AFT_Farms_Under_Threat_May2018%20maps%20B_0.pdf -- Sorensen, A. A., J. Freedgood, J. Dempsey and D. M. Theobald. 2018. Farms Under Threat: The State of America’s Farmland. Washington, DC: American Farmland Trust.

  4. More headlines from Farms Under Threat • Between 1992 and 2012, almost 31 Million Acres of agricultural land were lost – equals entire state of New York, or most of Iowa. • That includes 11 Million acres of the best farmland, in one generation. • Of all “Development”, 62% on agricultural land – including 70% of urban expansion. • Of all “development”, 59% of the conversions (loss to ag) were for urban spread, and 41% was low-density residential development. • The Productivity, Versatility, and Resiliency median value of lost land was 130% of the median value of land that stayed in production. • These losses are cumulative and irreversible, with adverse effects on future productivity and US food security. https://www.farmlandinfo.org/sites/default/files/AFT_Farms _Under_Threat_May2018%20maps%20B_0.pdf -- Sorensen, A. A., J. Freedgood, J. Dempsey and D. M. Theobald. 2018. Farms Under Threat: The State of America’s Farmland. Washington, DC: American Farmland Trust.

  5. Fig 3: Combined Productivity, Versatility, and Resiliency Values for Agricultural Land – American Farmland Trust, 2018, Farmland Under Threat report.

  6. Fig 4: Conversion Of agricultural Land to urban and low- density residential development between 1992 and 2012. American Farmland Trust, 2018, Farmland Under Threat report. High is >25% within 6.2 mi radius Moderate: 10 – 25% Low 5-10% conversion

  7. Fig 6: Best agricultural land for intensive food and crop production in 2012. American Farmland Trust, 2018, Farmland Under Threat report.

  8. From March 2018 issue of Amber Waves, USDA. We are losing the small and medium commercial farms… The ones most likely to diversify and to participate in conservation programs. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2018/march/examining-consolidation-in-us-agriculture/

  9. Poultry and eggs are rapidly becoming “contract farming” in which the farmer has very little discretion. Hogs and Fed Cattle are becoming more and more “CAFO” (Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations.) My own speculation: Beef cows are not being consolidated because the feeding stage and meat packing are very highly concentrated. The meat business probably sees no reason to take over the most risky element of the business when it already owns the profitable parts of the supply chain. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2018/march/examining-consolidation-in-us-agriculture/ Examining Consolidation in U.S. Agriculture. MacDonald, James M. and Robert A Hoppe. Amber Waves, March 2018; links to ERS report: MacDonald, J.M., R.A. Hoppe, and D. Newton, 2018, Three Decades of Consolidation in U.S. Agriculture. USDA ERS EIB-189. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=88056

  10. Agroecology/Agroforestry – huge increase in research and publication…. • Not just the long-important Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems (Cambridge) and Sustainable Agriculture, and Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems, Conservation Biology, Journal of Environmental Quality; Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, and all the other agriculture and environment science… • Relatively less known, perhaps (a sampling…): Agriculture and Human Values; Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment; Agronomy for Sustainable Development; Biotechnology, Agronomy and Society and Environment; Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability; Environmental Innovation and Social Transition; Frontiers in Environmental Science; Global Environmental Change; International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology; Regional Environmental Change; Science of the Total Environment; Sustainability… • All of these from references for one article! • Vaarst, Mette, Arthur Getz Escudero, M. Jahi Chappell, Catherine Brinkley, Ravic Nijbroek, Nilson A.M. Arraes, Lise Andreasen, Andreas Gattinger, Gustavo Fonseca De Almeida, Deborah Bossio & Niels Halberg (2018) Exploring the Concept of Agroecological Food Systems in a City-region Context, Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems, 42:6, 686-711, DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1365321

  11. Price instability and input costs grind down small and medium commercial farming… as in, right now! Soybean prices with Administration’s Trade policies and very large plantings… Sunday 24 Jun 18 This is short-term change on top of several years of low or no profits… This it is very worrying for farmers… and should be for consumers, cities, and those hoping we can maintain or increase productive capacity. This situation could easily push 2018 into the red… Eller, Donnelle, Des Moines Register, 04 June 18 Low Prices, Trade Disputes Sow Fears of ‘80s-style Farm Crisis: https://www.desmoinesregister. com/story/money/agriculture/2018/06/04/ trade-war-tariffs-farm-iowa-economy-low-prices -dispute-interest-rates-debt-worries-crisis -1980-s/661905002/ www.macrotrends.new/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data

  12. http://www.macrotrends.net/2532/corn-prices-historical-chart-datahttp://www.macrotrends.net/2532/corn-prices-historical-chart-data 45 year Corn Prices – the last few years have been pretty rough for the small and medium growers!

  13. Corn Prices - 45 Year Historical Chart Interactive chart of historical daily corn prices back to 1971. The price shown is in U.S. Dollars per bushel. The current price of corn as of June 22, 2018 is $3.5725 per bushel. The last 6 months corn Prices on a rough ride… http://www.macrotrends.net/2532/corn-prices-historical-chart-data

  14. Illinois Corn Farmer Return: net negative on high- productivity farmland – losing money 2014 through 2018 projection. THIS MATTERS FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM FARMS AND IT MATTERS FOR SUCCESSION OF FARMS – It matters for credit… it matters for local economies… The decreasing input costs from 2014 to 2017 from decreasing energy costs were not enough to keep farmer returns in the black. Bottom line here: losses in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and projected for 2018… Now, energy costs are rising so, fertilizer, crop drying, and fuel and oil prices may soon rise as well… WHAT WOULD WORK BETTER? Schnitkey, G. “Has the Era of Decreasing Per Acre Corn Costs Come to an End?” farmdoc daily (8):114, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, June 21, 2018. Permalink: http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/06/era-of-decreasing-per-acre-corn-costs.html

  15. Agroecology/Agroforestry… We know what works for soil and productivity restoration… • A great introduction to the science: DeLonge, Marcia, 2017, Agroecology to the Rescue: 7 Ways Ecologists are Working Toward Healthier Food Systems. 02 Aug 17. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://blog.ucsusa.org/marcia-delonge/agroecology-to-the-rescue-7-ways-ecologists-are-working-toward-healthier-food-systems • Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems Special Issue: “Agroecology: Building an Ecological Knowledge-base for Food System Sustainability” Volume 41 No. 7. • Editorial: Agroecology: Building an ecological knowledge-base for food system sustainability Steve Gliessman Pages: 695-696 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1335152 • Ecological complexity and agroecosystems: seven themes from theory John Vandermeer & Ivette Perfecto Pages: 697-722 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1322166 • Intersection between biodiversity conservation, agroecology, and ecosystem services Heidi Liere, ShaleneJha & Stacy M. Philpott Pages: 723-760 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1330796 • Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems: Balancing food and environmental objectives Kate Tully & Rebecca Ryals Pages: 761-798 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1336149 • Improving water resilience with more perennially based agriculture |Andrea D. Basche & Oliver F. Edelson Pages: 799-824 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1330795 • SRI: An agroecological strategy to meet multiple objectives with reduced reliance on inputs Norman Uphoff Pages: 825-854 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1334738 • Triggering a positive research and policy feedback cycle to support a transition to agroecology and sustainable food systems Albie Miles, Marcia S. DeLonge & Liz Carlisle Pages: 855-879 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1331179 • Insights from agroecology and a critical next step: Integrating human health Megan E. O’Rourke, Marcia S. DeLonge & Ricardo Salvador Pages: 880-884 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1326073 A great application: De Pinto, Alessandro; Robertson, Richard D.; Begeladze, Salome; Kumar, Chetan; Kwon, Ho Young; Thomas, Timothy S.; Cenacchi, Nicola; and Koo, Jawoo. 2017. Cropland restoration as an essential component to the forest landscape restoration approach - Global effects of widescale adoption. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1682. Washington, D.C. http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/singleitem/collection/p15738coll2/id/131463   Also:  https://www.ifpri.org/publication/cropland-restoration-essential-component-forest-landscape-restoration-approach-global; De Pinto, A., K.D. Wieber, and M.W. Rosegrant, 2016, Climate Change and Agricultural Policy Options: A Global-to-local Approach. IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute. Washington, D.C.. http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-and-agricultural-policy-options-global-local-approach

  16. MEANWHILE, BACK IN THE LIBRARY…. AGROECOLOGY EXPLODES!!!! Mette Vaarst, Arthur Getz Escudero, M. Jahi Chappell, Catherine Brinkley, Ravic Nijbroek, Nilson A.M. Arraes, Lise Andreasen, Andreas Gattinger, Gustavo Fonseca De Almeida, Deborah Bossio and Niels Halberg (2018) Exploring the concept of agroecological food systems in a city-region context, Agroecology and Sus- tainable Food Systems: 42 (6): 686-711. DOI: 10.1080/ 21683565.2017.1365321 Fig. 1, P 698 – Characteristic of agro-ecological systems… Spelled out and made visible…

  17. Organics, “sorta…”price premia, local economies and local preference • Adams, D.C. and M.J. Salois, 2010, Local Versus Organic: A Turn in Consumer Preferences and Willingness-To-Pay. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 25(4): 331-341. • McBride, W.D. and C. Taylor, 2015, Price Premiums Behind Organic Field Crop Profitability. Amber Waves, September 25, 2015. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture. • McBride, W.D., C. Greene, L. Foreman and M. Ali, 2015, The Profit Potential of Certified Organic Field Crop Production. ERS Economic Research Report No. 188. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture. www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err-188 • Hardesty, S., 2016, Direct-marketing Farms have Double the Regional Economic Impact. National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition’s Blog, 03 August 16. • TEEB (2015) The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: TEEB for Agriculture & Food: an interim report, United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva, Switzerland. http://www.teebweb.org/publication/teebagfood-interim-report/ (accessed 12 Jun 16) • Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016, Growing Economies: Connecting Local Farmers and Large-Scale Buyers to Create Jobs and Revitalize America’s Heartland; Policy Brief. Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists. www.ucusa.org/GrowingEconomies. • Lin, B-H., T.A. Smith and C.L. Huang, 2008, Organic Premiums of US Fresh Produce. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 23(3): 208-216. • Mero, T., 2011, Organic Education: the Growth of Sustainable Agriculture Programs. Sustainability: The Journal of Record 4(5): 232-235. • Oberholtzer, L., C. Dimitri and E.C. Jaenicke, 2013, International Trade of Organic Food: Evidence of US Imports. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 28(3): 255-262. • Pimentel, D., P. Hepperly, J. Hanson, D. Douds and R. Seidel, 2005, Environmental, Energetic, and Economic Comparisons and Organic and Conventional Farming Systems. BioScience 55(7): 573-582. • Ponisio, L.C., L.K. McGonigle, K.C. Mace. J. Palomino, P. de Valpine, and C. Kremen, 2015, Diversification Practices Reduce Organic to Conventional Yeild Gap. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: 282: 20141396 • Reganold, J.P., 2013, Comparing Organic and Conventional Farming Systems: Metrics and Research Approaches. Online. Crop Management doi: 10.1094/CM-2013-0429-01-RS. • Seufert, V., N. Ramankutty, and J.A. Foley, 2012, Comparing the Yields of Organic and Conventional Agriculture. Nature 485 (7397): 229-232 [plus methods page]. • Crowder, D.W. and J.P. Reganold, 2015, Financial Competitiveness of Organic Agriculture on a Global Scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1423674112. • Delate, K., C. Cambardella, C. Chase, A. Johanns, and R. Turnbull, 2013, The Long-Term Agroecological Research Experiment Supports Organic Yields, Soil Quality, and Economic Performance in Iowa. Plant Management Network, USDA Organic Farming Systems Research Conferences Proceedings. Published in journal Crop Management doi:10.1094/CM-2013-0429-02-RS. • THE POINT: better outcomes from low-input, BUT it takes transition with costs to get restoration of fertility and yield.

  18. Green Infrastructure/Nature-Based Solutions… • Earth Economics, 2016, Updated: Communicating and Investing in Natural Capital Using Water Rates factsheet. 16 large providers use water rates for watershed improvement… • Riverine flood hazard mitigation pays off average of 7:1 B to C, not counting all the ecosystem and natural capital benefits, and not counting the avoided costs of long-term disaster economic set-backs. • Green Infrastructure/nature-based solutions are often far more cost-effective than “grey” infrastructure (concrete, levees, channelizing…) because of lower capital and O&M costs, and often huge co-benefits. • http://www.eartheconomics.org/all-publications/2016/5/20/updated-factsheet-communicating-and-investing-in-natural-capital-using-water-rates (accessed 12 Jun 16) • Multihazard Mitigation Council (2017) Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves 2017 Interim Report: An Independent Study. Principal Investigator Porter, K.; co-Principal Investigators Scawthorn, C.; Dash, N.; Santos, J.; Investigators: Eguchi, M., Ghosh., S., Huyck, C., Isteita, M., Mickey, K., Rashed, T.;P. Schneider, Director, MMC. National Institute of Building Sciences, Washington. https://www.fema.gov/natural-hazard-mitigation-saves-2017-interim-report • Deryugina, Tatyana, 2016, The Fiscal Cost of Hurricanes: Disaster Aid Versus Social Insurance. Working Paper 22272. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research: http://www.nber/org/papers/w22272. Kousky, C., and Walls, M. (2014). Floodplain conservation as a flood mitigation strategy: Examining costs and benefits. Ecological Economics. 104: 119-128 • Regional Green Infrastructure Planning at the Landscape Scale: APA Green Paper (9 pp); 2016. https://www.planning.org/nationalcenters/green/regionalgreen/ • Harnik, Peter, and Abby Martin. 2016. “City Parks, Clean Water: Making Great Places Using Green Infrastructure.” The Trust for Public Land. March. Available at: http://tinyurl.com/hb8mfdy. • American Planning Association, 2015, AICP Symposium: Green Stormwater Infrastructure. By Rouse, David, Paula Conolly, Bethany Bezak, and Mathy Stanislaus. Podcast and 2 pdf files of presentations by Conolly and Bezak. https://www.planning.org/aicp/symposium/2015/

  19. Multihazard Mitigation Council (2017) Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves 2017 Interim Report: An Independent Study. Principal Investigator Porter, K.; co-Principal Investigators Scawthorn, C.; Dash, N.; Santos, J.; Investigators: Eguchi, M., Ghosh., S., Huyck, C., Isteita, M., Mickey, K., Rashed, T.;P. Schneider, Director, MMC. National Institute of Building Sciences, Washington. Table from P. 1. https://www.fema.gov/natural-hazard-mitigation-saves-2017-interim-report

  20. The measured benefits from federal mitigation grants. Note: the benefits are greater than the costs for: Developers, Title holders [Buyers], Lenders, Tenants, And Community [all involved with or affected by the building. (P 10) What would be saved from new building that exceeds the international building codes. Note that many US Jurisdictions are not “up” to I-Codes. (P 20) Multihazard Mitigation Council (2017) Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves 2017 Interim Report: An Independent Study. Principal Investigator Porter, K.; co-Principal Investigators Scawthorn, C.; Dash, N.; Santos, J.; Investigators: Eguchi, M., Ghosh., S., Huyck, C., Isteita, M., Mickey, K., Rashed, T.;P. Schneider, Director, MMC. National Institute of Building Sciences, Washington. Figure from P. 4. https://www.fema.gov/natural-hazard-mitigation-saves-2017-interim-report

  21. THE CITY – WHAT’S IN YOUR FLOODPLAIN? WATERSHED PROTECTION A PLEA TO PLANNERS: Whole Flow Planning! AG LANDS FOR STORM WATER BOTTLENECK AND DAMAGE OR GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGH RECREATIONAL AND AMENITY VALUE WITH FLOOD MANAGEMENT? Greenway photos from Mecklenburg Cn., NC https://www.mecknc.gov/ParkandRec/Greenways/Pages/default.aspx For Colorado, The Urban Drainage and Flood Control District has Become a national model. https://udfcd.org/ -- Great website! RATIONALE – see postings at www.Colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener for reviews of what Colorado farmers face, and recommendations for moving forward. Watershed photo by Danil Silantev, Unsplash Farm photo by Xavi Moll, Unsplash Photos.

  22. Sampling of cities using Green Infrastructure for stormwater capture – 2014. Trust for Public Land, 2016, City Parks, Clean Water: Making Great Places Using Green Infrastructure. https://www.tpl.org/sites/default/files/City%20Parks%20Clean%20Water%20report_0.pdf Very good report to introduce topic of urban stormwater management, with good case studies. For larger scale, see: American Planning Association: Regional Green Infrastructure Planning at the Landscape Scale: APA Green Paper (9 pp); 2016. https://www.planning.org/nationalcenters/green/regionalgreen/

  23. For stormwater management, Green Infrastructure capital and O&M costs may be very economical Even without counting co-benefits, which can be quite significant and serve many social purposes. NOTE: because of different functions and case specifics, it appears very difficult to generalize about costs per volume of water/held/detained-for-how-long. But clearly, the green alternative is increasingly chosen during fiscally hard times. (Presenter’s comment.) Trust for Public Land, 2016, City Parks, Clean Water: Making Great Places Using Green Infrastructure. Box 6: p 20; Box 10: p 41. https://www.tpl.org/sites/default/files/City%20Parks%20Clean%20Water%20report_0.pdf

  24. A Digression: Land Use Reflecting costs of transport and weight of goods… might get back to this! River – because of water transport costs, the zones are elongated The Von Thunen model of land uses around an isolated city – the frequency of transport and the weight of goods Affect the location of land uses. This may become more relevant again with increasing transport costs. Image from Dr. G. van Otten and Dr D. Bellafiore, in Penn. State U. on-line course materials. https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog597i_02/node/744(Comments from presenter.) Note (1) that this would have provided substantial floodwater storage space, and (2) would also have provided least expensive transport costs. Medieval smart growth with green infrastructure?

  25. The view of city finances from Truth in Accounting (2018, Financial State of the Cities, 2016). This group is part of the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), which is part of the far-”conservative” network according to Sourcewatch. https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/financial-state-of-the-cities-2016 https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Truth_in_Accounting FEAR And LOATHING of… taxes and government! Cities can’t afford to do anything! But, No New Taxes! A grade: Taxpayer Surplus greater than $10,000 (0 cities). B grade: Taxpayer Surplus between $100 and $10,000 (11 cities). C grade: Taxpayer Burden between $0 and $4,900 (23 cities). D grade: Taxpayer Burden between $5,000 and $20,000 (34 cities). F grade: Taxpayer Burden greater than $20,000 (7 cities) SO? HOW CAN CITIES FAIL TO USE VERY COST-EFFECTIVE HAZARD MITIGATION AND GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE? BUT HOW CAN THEY PAY FOR WATERSHED IMPROVEMENT AND AGRICULTURAL CAPACITY CONSERVATION? A BIG QUESTION: HOW WELL-OFF ARE WATER PROVIDERS?

  26. The view of state finances from Truth in Accounting (2017, Financial State of the States, 2016). This group is part of the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), which is part of the far-”conservative” network according to Sourcewatch. https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/financial-state-of-the-states-2-2 https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Truth_in_Accounting And the States are no good, either! Can’t afford to do anything!

  27. Why would a city want to invest in food security? • To stabilize institutional food costs – school districts, correctional facilities, assisted living/nursing homes, food assistance… • To acquire biofuels at stabilized prices/costs and with supply flow management • To invest in productivity for future benefits in meeting the preference for local and high-quality foods • To invest in high-value land and water that provides ecosystem services (e.g. water quality benefits), amenity values for locals, recreational benefits for visitors and locals, tax benefits (far lower costs than residential with much higher revenues/cost • And because food security IS NOT A GIVEN EVEN IN THE US… • Now, a nasty little tour of global food insecurity…

  28. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2017. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017. Building resilience for peace and food security. Rome, FAO. P. 5 http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition

  29. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2017. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017. Building resilience for peace and food security. Rome, FAO. P. 8 http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition P 7: “…recent reductions in food availability and increases in food prices in regions affected by El Nino/La Nina-related phenomena… *** …in addition.. .conflicts increased… in particular in… high food insecurity….”

  30. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2017. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017. Building resilience for peace and food security. Rome, FAO. P. 40 http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition

  31. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2017. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017. Building resilience for peace and food security. Rome, FAO. P. 55 http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition

  32. 2016 Pub. Used by International Food Policy Research Institute, 2017 Note how very wide- spread the degradation is – though this is said to be an underestimate Link to FAO et al. 2017 on world hunger starting to rise again… Bao, Q. L., E. Nkonya, and A. Mirzabaev. 2016. “Biomass Productivity-Based Mapping of Global Land Degradation Hotspots” (55–84). In Economics of Land Degradation and Improvement: A Global Assessment for Sustainable Development, edited by E. Nkonya, A. Mirzabaev, and J. von Braun. Cham, Switzerland: Springer – used in IFPRI Project Note and Discussion Paper, P 11: De Pinto, Alessandro; Robertson, Richard D.; Begeladze, Salome; Kumar, Chetan; Kwon, Ho Young; Thomas, Timothy S.; Cenacchi, Nicola; and Koo, Jawoo. 2017. Cropland restoration as an essential component to the forest landscape restoration approach – Global effects of widescale adoption. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1682. Washington, D.C. http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/singleitem/collection/p15738coll2/id/131463 Also: https://www.ifpri.org/publication/cropland-restoration-essential-component-forest-landscape-restoration-approach-global FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2017. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017. Building resilience for peace and food security. Rome, FAO. http://www.fao.org/state-of-food- security-nutrition

  33. The Climate Change, Global Food Security, and U.S. Food System assessment [2015] represents a consensus of authors and includes contributors from 19 Federal, academic, nongovernmental, and intergovernmental organizations in four countries, identifying climate-change effects on global food security through 2100, and analyzing the United States’ likely connections with that world. The assessment finds that climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. The risks are greatest for the global poor and in tropical regions. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. As part of a highly integrated global food system, consumers and producers in the United States are likely to be affected by these changes. Brown, M.E., J.M. Antle, P. Backlund, E.R. Carr, W.E. Easterling, M.K. Walsh, C. Ammann, W. Attavanich, C.B. Barrett, M.F. Bellemare, V. Dancheck, C. Funk, K. Grace, J.S.I. Ingram, H. Jiang, H. Maletta, T. Mata, A. Murray, M. Ngugi, D. Ojima, B. O’Neill, and C. Tebaldi. 2015. Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System. 146 pages. Available online at http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate _change/FoodSecurity2015Assessment/ FullAssessment.pdf. DOI: 10.7930/J0862DC7

  34. US Food Security assessment (2015): (Pp viii- ) • Adaptations have great potential, but… • But, lack of food security cuts global economics by 2-3%, and up to 10% of GDP for some countries. • Outdated on world hunger, now… • “Climate change is very likely to affect global, regional, and local food security by disrupting food availability, decreasing access to food, and making utilization more difficult.” And, affects all parts of the food systems. • Global real food prices decreased 1950-2000 but increased after that (p 8). Price volatility increased, in part due to extreme climate events. • Elevated CO2 decreases protein in food staples. • But, adaptations are subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors… • Technical feasibility insufficient if it is unaffordable or fails to provide short-term benefits, for those without long-term investment capacity… • Increased water stress may affect commodities and all elements of the food system, including livestock which is livelihood for > a billion people. • Crop yields were up 1.8%/yr since 2000, but is being diminished about 2.5%/decade, globally. • Crop limits already approached in tropics. • No part of food systems is unaffected by climate. • U.S. is third-largest importer of many foods, and largest global exporter of corn, among top in wheat and rice, and ¼ of meat. Late world hunger information: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2017. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017. Building resilience for peace and food security. Rome, FAO. http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition

  35. AgMIP – risks particularly difficult to model: • Flood damage and water-logging • CO2 fertilization and interactions with drought; • sea level rise and shifting hurricane intensities; • acute damage from short-duration heat waves at critical stages; • changes in sowing and harvest dates; • shifts in major modes of climate variability (ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation); • competition over water resources; • shifts in cropping area from climate and socioeconomic development; • losses from damaging pests, diseases and weeds. Ruane, A.C., M.M. Phillips, and C. Rosenzweig, 2018, Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 259 (2018): 329-344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agformet.2018.05.13 .

  36. Agricultural Modelling moves to Food Systems • The Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project reported in 2014 is partially updated by 2016 International Crop Modelling Symposium (reported in a special issue of Agricultural Systems (2018; vol 159), and AgMIP work continues. • Fundamental improvements including use of ensembles • Improved handling of heat stress, microclimates (Nendle et al. 2018) • Another advance: food systems modelling into which crop etc. ag. models are nested or interactive. (Stephens et al. 2018) • Net? Improvements in capacity to consider adaptations… (and Ruane et al. 2018 for recent AgMIP work comparing present to +1.5 and +2.0 C including extremes). • But, given the explosion in knowledge of agroecology and the basic needs for improved soils, key question remains how to support transition. toward sustainability. The deck chair problem? • Field scale: “precision agriculture” but increasing efforts by agribiz to control data… Nendle, C., R.P. Rotter, P. J. Thorburn, K.J. Boote, and F. Ewert, 2018, Editorial Introduction to the Special Issue “Modelling Cropping Systems Under Climate Variability and Change: Impacts, Risk, and Adaptation”. Agricultural Systems 159 (2018): 139-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.11.005 . Stephens, E.C., A.D. Jones, and D. Parsons, 2018, Agricultural Systems Research and Global Food Security in the 21st Century: An Overview and Roadmap for Future Opportunities. Agricultural Systems 163 (2018): 1-6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsys.2017.01.011 . Ruane, A.C., M.M. Phillips, and C. Rosenzweig, 2018, Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 259 (2018): 329-344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agformet.2018.05.13 .

  37. WILL INCREASING DEMAND FOR US FOOD EXPORTS MASK DECREASING PRODUCTIVITY AND WILL WATER QUALITY WORSEN? • The net productivity from conventional agriculture may remain high if there is continued high use of energy-dependent fertilizers, fuel use, and pesticide/herbicide use… Sales price can hide supply shortage… • And if there is continued acceptance of high and actually increasing levels of water pollution, nutrient pollution, and hypoxia… • (Iowa is a major source of NO3 in the Miss. And Mo. River Basins, and thus to Gulf. • How long will this go on? Eller, D., 2018, Des Moines Register, Iowa Nitrogen Pollution in the Water is Getting Worse, Despite Hundreds of Millions Of Dollars in Spending, Study Shows. 22 Jun 2018. https://dmreg.co/2MN3yDn Glauber, J.,2013, The Growth of the Federal Crop Insurance Program, 1990-2011.Am. J. Agric.Econ.95(2),482–488. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aas091. Jones, C.S.; Nielsen, J.K.; Schilling, K.E.; and Weber, L.J. 2018. “Iowa Stream Nitrate and the Gulf of Mexico,”  PLoS ONE, 13, 4, e0195930, 2018. Riebsame, W.E., Changon, S.A., Karl, T.R., 1991. Drought and Natural Resources Management in the United States. Westview Press, Boulder. Wiener, J.D., R.S. Pulwarty and D. Ware, 2016, Bite Without Bark: How the Socioeconomic Context of the 1950s U.S. Drought Minimized Responses to a Multiyear Extreme Climate Event. Weather and Climate Extremes 11 (2016): 80-94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.11.007

  38. From The Des Moines Register, 22 Jun 2018: https://www.desmoinesregister. com/story/money/agriculture /2018/06/22/iowa-water- pollution-gulf-mexico-dead- zone-nitrogren-missouri- mississippi-river-quality- nirtate/697370002/ -- Note: use this URL to access, Despite misspelling of nitrate. WHY MENTION THIS? Because, as Iowa Environmental Council said, the voluntary approach is not reducing the nitrate losses into water and Ultimately the Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone. University of Iowa: Iowa sends 55% of Missouri River N loads… from 3.3% of the total area. Seven times more nitrates than the rest of the Missouri R. Basin… CAFOs and tile drains… DEGRADATION OF LAND AND WATER QUALITY IS VERY REAL IN THE U.S., TOO…

  39. Tipping Points and Dominoes… Just One More Horrible Threat… the Worst? • Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, B. DeAngelo, S. Doherty, K. Hayhoe, R. Horton, J.P. Kossin, P.C. Taylor, A.M. Waple, and C.P. Weaver, 2017: Executive summary. In: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 12-34, doi: 10.7930/J0DJ5CTG. • [Denial and doubt are now inexcusable.] Holding change to +2 C will be very hard. • Includes a chapter (15) on unanticipated changes, tipping points, and dominoes… • “There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are potentially large and irreversible.” Compound or cascading effects from positive feedbacks may catapult change to fast global catastrophe.

  40. Innovative Finance or Other Funding • Revaluation of water portfolios: acquisitions are often valued at historic costs, NOT replacement costs/values in current conditions; see Howe, Charles W., 2017, Getting Western Municipal Water Prices Right: Reflecting the Scarcity Value of Water. Journal of the American Water Works Association 109(8). This may sharply increase binding capacity in some states. • Water Rates to finance watershed improvement and floodwater management by agricultural conservation. Earth Economics 2016: major cities are doing this. • Tax increment financing? Where there is added value (e.g. stabilized water supply?) this might be useful… • Cost-benefit as basis for necessary and ordinary utility functioning (as in for least-cost capital facility needs) • ICMA International City/county Management Association and GFOA Government Finance Officers Association, 2017, Chen, C. and J. R.Bartle, Infrastructure Financing: A Guide for Local Government Managers. https://icma.org/documents/infrastructure-financing-guide-local-government-managers . In 2012, infrastructure spending by local government (LG) was the lowest % of expenditures in more than 50 years. Only 13% of survey respondents thought that needs were met and funding was adequate. ¾ of public infrastructure is built by LG. Municipal bonding is and should be the primary financing method [matching costs over time to benefits; basic fairness – presenter’s opinion.] P 5: graphic of federal vs LG shares, kinds of infrastructure. LG infrastructure spending “FELL DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN 1992 AND 2002.” (P 6). Special districts share has grown sharply since 2002 (P 7). Reviews traditional financing (taxation, user charges, bond financing, etc., such as water rates to support revenue bonds. About 90% of LG capital spending is debt financed. New funding sources: new taxes; impact fees, development exactions. New financing: includes revolving funds for credit assistance. Public-private Partnerships are in new financial arrangements [see Lincoln Institute of Land Policy: https://www.lincolninst.edu/courses-events/courses/webinar-planning-financing-successful-public-private-partnerships-national on when to use them. ICMA report discusses pro and con for each “new funding source” such as local option taxes (29 States allow), impact fees (27 states as of 2012); Special Assessment Districts; tax increment financing – capture some of value created, as a self-financing district; can be overused and limit property tax growth; risky if gain in property tax is below forecast. Revolving funds are discussed, and state infrastructure banks. State Bond Banks are used in 10 states to pool small bonding at lower rates and costs. “Green Bonds” are expanding rapidly, but GFOA has worries. PPPs are discussed. Privatization problems noted. Case studies provided.

  41. COMMUNITY SUPPORT CAN WORK IN MANY WAYS -- CONTRACTS ABOUT PRIVATE PROPERTY ARE VERY WIDE OPEN! BENEFIT CORPORATIONS AND CO-OPS AND MANY WAYS OF COMMUNITY SUPPORTTHINK ABOUT EXCHANGES OF SERVICES AND STABILITY, NOT JUST MONEY

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