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Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model

Aalborg University, September October 2005 PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:. Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model. Henrik Lund Aalborg University Denmark. Content: Workshop aproach…!! Development aproach..!!.

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Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model

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  1. Aalborg University, September October 2005PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I: Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model Henrik Lund Aalborg University Denmark

  2. Content: Workshop aproach…!!Development aproach..!! • 1. (23 August): Introduction to studies made by the use of EnergyPLAN. Discussion of participants ideas of PhD projects and potential use of the model. • 2. (30 August): Details inside the model. How does it work? How are the modelling of specific components, units etc? Discussion of PhD-projects: Strengths and weakness of the model? • The period between 23 August and 5 September: Participants install the model and make familiar with the model and make som preliminary analyses. • 3. (6 September): Discussion of participants analyses. Results, problems, room for improvements of the model…!!! Etc..

  3. www.plan.aau.dk/~lund • Download EnergyPLAN • Download documentation • Links to journal articles (results) • Links to research reports (Danish)

  4. Content 1. The EnergyPLAN model 2. Data and Methodologies 3. Example: Technical Analysis 4. Example: Market Economical Analysis

  5. Electricity Excess Production Demand Excess

  6. Reference excess production

  7. The EnergyPLAN Model Energy System Analysis Model - Excel~Visual Basic~Delphi Pascal - Main focus: Compare different regulation systems ability to integrate and trade RES (Wind) - Simplified modelling of energy system.

  8. Windows program:

  9. EnergyPLAN Model 6.0 Input Output Distribution Data: Demands Fixed electricity Flexible electricity District Heating Electricity District H. Wind MarketPrices • Results: • (Annual, monthly and hour by hour values) • Heat productions • Electricity production • Electricity import export • Forced electricity surplus production • Fuel consumption • Payments from import/export • CO2 emissions • Share of RES Solar IndustrialCHP PhotoVoltaic RES Wind and PV Capacities (MW) Distribution Factor Solar Thermal and CSHP (TWh/year) • Regulation strategy: • 1. Meeting heat demand • 2. Meeting both heat and electricity demand • Electricity Market Strategy: • Import/export optimisation • Critical surplus production: • reducing wind, • replacing CHP with boiler or heat pump • Electric heating and/or Bypass Capacities & Efficiencies CHP, Power plant, Heat Pump, Boiler Heat Storage Regulation Market prises Multiplication factor Addition factor Depend factor Marginal production Cost (Import, export) Stabilisation demands Fuel Types of fuel CO2 emission factors Fuel prices

  10. Results:

  11. EnergyPLAN model

  12. Energy System Import Export Wind Power Photo Voltaic Electricity Demand Power Plant Transport Flexible CHPunit CSHPunit Heat Pump Fuel Heat Demand Boiler DH-boiler Heat Storage Solar Thermal

  13. Energy System 6.2 Water Storage Wind Power Import Export Photo Voltaic Wave Energy Pump Turbine Electricity Demand Power Plant Transport Flexible Electro- lyser Heat Pump CHPunit CSHPunit Fuel Heat Demand Heat Storage Boiler DH-boiler Solar Thermal

  14. DESIRE project Will include: • Nuclear power.. • Hydro Power…

  15. Content 1. The EnergyPLAN model 2. Data and Methodologies 3. Example: Technical Analysis 4. Example: Market Economical Analysis

  16. Methodology Inputs: • Reference energy system (Danish CHP) • Different share of different RES Results: • Rate of excess electricity production • Ability to decrease CO2 emission • Ability to exploit exchange on external electricity markets

  17. Example of Results:

  18. Wind energy Input: • Data from total productions of wind turbines in the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark).

  19. Wind power

  20. Photo voltaic • Data from the Danish Sol300 project (Total 267 installations, app. 100 included in the data base • Additional “synthetic data” from Test Reference Year

  21. Photo Voltaic

  22. Wave Power • Calculated from measurements of Wave height and periods in the North Sea • 5 percent efficiency • Max installed capacity

  23. Photo Voltaic

  24. Comparison of results

  25. Content 1. The EnergyPLAN model 2. Data and Methodologies 3. Example: Technical Analysis 4. Example: Market Economical Analysis

  26. Electricity Excess Production Demand Excess

  27. Reference excess production

  28. ReferenceÅr 2030

  29. Different Energy Systems

  30. Electricity Balance and Grid Stability Non Active Components Active Components Demand Centralised CHP and Power Plants RES (Renewable Energy Sources) DG (Distributed Generation)

  31. System 1:Activating DG CHP-units Non Active Components Active Components Centralised CHP and Power Plants Demand DG (Distributed Generation) RES (Renewable Energy Sources)

  32. System 2: CHP-units and Heat Pumps Non Active Components Active Components Centralised CHP and Power Plants Demand DG (Distributed Generation) Heat Pumps RES (Renewable Energy Sources)

  33. System 3: Activating RES via additional demand Non Active Components Active Components Centralised CHP and Power Plants Demand DG (Distributed Generation) Heat Pumps RES (Renewable Energy Sources) Wind Power Electricity for Transport

  34. Principle results of technical analyses

  35. Danish Reference 2020 Excess Electricity 8,4 TWh Wind Power 17,7 TWh 41,1 TWh Electricity Demand 41,1 TWh 31,8 TWh CHP and Power plants Coal 26.5 TWh Fuel Total 200,3 TWh 92,3 TWh Oil 70,9 TWh 39,2 TWh District Heating Grid loss 25 % 31,9 TWh Heat Demand 62,9 TWh 31,0 TWh Household & Industry 39,9 TWh Natural Gas 68,4 TWh 50,7 TWh Transport 50,7 TWh Biomass 34,5 TWh 17,4 TWh Refinery Etc. 17,4 TWh

  36. Danish Alternative 20?0 Transport (50,7 TWh) equvalent 62,3 TWh 17,8 TWh Wind Power 37,0 TWh Electricity Demand 37,0 TWh Photo Voltaic H2 Electrolyser H2 14,7 TWh CHP, HP and Power plants Solar thermal 2,1 TWh District Heating Grid loss 25 % 53,5 TWh 42,8 TWh Heat Demand 56,8 TWh Biomass 49,4 TWh Fuel Total 49,4 TWh 31,4 TWh 18,0 TWh 14,0 TWh Household & Industry

  37. Content 1. The EnergyPLAN model 2. Data and Methodologies 3. Example: Technical Analysis 4. Example: Market Economical Analysis

  38. Modelling of NordPool - Standard system price hour by hour distribution (based on recent years) - Construction of “Wet” “Dry” and “Normal” years (Hydro in Norway) - Modelling of influence for DK trade and splitting in price areas due to bottle-neck in transmission - Modelling of influence from Trade on the German Boarder.

  39. Reference regulation system(CO2 Price = 100 DKK/t)

  40. Wind Power Production Costs220 DKK/MWh

  41. Different Production Costs and CO2 Prices

  42. Feasibility of Alternative Regulation Systems

  43. Feasibility of Alternative Regulation Systems

  44. Conclusions: • If wind production exceeds 5 TWh (equal to 20%) investments in CHP regulation and Heat Pumps are feasible. • Such investments at the same time makes wind power more feasible. For production costs of 220 DKK/MWh and CO2-prices of 100 DKK/t the feasibility of wind power raises from 6 TWh in the reference system to 11 TWh in the “Heat Pump” system.

  45. Sensitivity Analysis • Increase in Heat Pump Costs • Variations in CO2 payment • Change in Wind Power costs • Change in fuel costs • Change in CO2 influence on Nordpool • Change in Nordpool average price • Change in import/export to Germany • Change in Nordpool price variations

  46. Only small changes in the main results

  47. Aalborg University, September October 2005PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I: Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model Henrik Lund Aalborg University Denmark

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