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NOAA PM2.5 Model Evaluation for March 10-12, 2008

NOAA PM2.5 Model Evaluation for March 10-12, 2008. Model Over-Prediction on Good to Moderate PM2.5 Days in Connecticut. Surface Analysis for March 10, 2008. Same day prediction for March 10, 2008. 2 Areas of high PM are modeled. CT prediction is correct. Actual AQI levels for March 10, 2008.

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NOAA PM2.5 Model Evaluation for March 10-12, 2008

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  1. NOAA PM2.5 Model Evaluation for March 10-12, 2008 Model Over-Prediction on Good to Moderate PM2.5 Days in Connecticut

  2. Surface Analysis for March 10, 2008

  3. Same day prediction for March 10, 2008 2 Areas of high PM are modeled. CT prediction is correct.

  4. Actual AQI levels for March 10, 2008 Areas are approximately correct, but only one site is USG (52 ug/m*3) and the rest were below 30 ug/m*3 in Ohio.

  5. Surface Analysis for March 11, 2008

  6. Second day prediction for March 11, 2008 Predicted high PM area increases and moves into CT. CT prediction is generally 10 ug/m*3 too high

  7. Same day prediction for March 11, 2008 Same day prediction is similar, and concentrations are slightly less for CT

  8. Actual AQI levels for March 11, 2008 Areas are approximately correct, but only 2 sites in Ohio had a concentration of 35 ug/m*3. The rest ranged from 13-32 ug/m*3.

  9. Surface Analysis for March 12, 2008

  10. Second day prediction for March 12, 2008 Areas were far too extensive and sites in Ohio only ranged from 9-33 ug/m*3. CT predictions were for 25-35 ug/m*3.

  11. Same day prediction for March 12, 2008 High PM areas were less extensive in mid-Atlantic same day prediction, and CT prediction is slightly less, but still too high. Maine and New Hampshire predictions were also too high.

  12. Actual AQI levels for March 12, 2008 Maine and New Hampshire Monitors ranged from 9-21 ug/m*3, whereas the same day prediction was for 40+ ug/m*3!

  13. Conclusions • Model overpredicted PM2.5 levels in CT by 10-20 ug/m*3 on low moderate AQI days. • 40+ ug/m*3 predicted concentrations in Ohio and New England did not occur. • Areal coverage of 40+ ug/m*3 is grossly over-predicted. • Model still predicts good days in CT well, but low moderate days are over-predicted. • On March 12th, northwest flow was predicted after 12z in CT, so predictions of 25-35 ug/m*3 were discounted. • Is the model having problems with the ventilation?

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