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The climate challenge

The climate challenge. Climate mecanisms. The greenhouse effect. Rayonnement solaire. Infrarouge. 100%. 26%. Piégeage 153 Wm -2. 4%. H 2 O. 20%. CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 0. 50%. Conduction, Evaporation. +15°C. 390 Wm -2. The greenhouse effect. A natural phenomenon

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The climate challenge

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  1. The climate challenge

  2. Climate mecanisms

  3. The greenhouse effect Rayonnement solaire Infrarouge 100% 26% Piégeage 153 Wm-2 4% H2O 20% CO2, CH4, N20 50% Conduction, Evaporation +15°C 390 Wm-2

  4. The greenhouse effect • A natural phenomenon • Makes life on Earth possible • Higher temperature: liquid water is available • Brings inertia to the system • Main gases responsible: • Carbon dioxide (CO2) • Methane (CH4) • Nitrous oxide (N2O) • Water vapour (H2O) • … • Direct link to the carbon cycle

  5. The carbon cycle

  6. The imbalance of the carbon cycle • Vegetation / Atmosphere • Respiration : 60 Gt / year • Photosynthesis : 62 Gt / year • Net result = - 2 Gt / year • Oceans / Atmosphere • In solution : 92 Gt / year • Release : 90 Gt / year • Net result = - 2 Gt / year • Deforestation : +2 Gt / year • Burning of oil, coal, gas = +6 Gt / year • In total : • +8 Gt / year released by human activities • THIS IS TWO TIMES TOO MUCH!!

  7. The phenomenon of warming, causes and consequences

  8. Causes of global warming • Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution: • CO2 : + 31 % • CH4 : + 150 % • N2O : + 15 % • 3 crucial « events » • Industrial Revolution • Post war boom • Globalisation of exchanges

  9. Causes of global warming • Emitting sectors in France: • And globally :

  10. The prospects for climate change • The IPCC: • Notes the state of affairs in research and technologies • Publishes a report every 4 years • Works with scientific consensus • Prudent in its positions by nature • Yet they are not reassuring us…

  11. The future evolution of the climate • Today: the highest concentration of CO2 and CH4 since 400,000 years • This is only the beginning … if do don’t do anything

  12. The prospects for climate change • No more doubts on the existence of future climate disorders • Sudden and irreversible changes • The facts confirm the most pessimistic forecasts • Yet retroactive changes are not even taken into account: melting of the permafrost, destruction of the ice shelfs at the poles …

  13. What concrete consequences? • Central scenarios: • Between + 2°C et + 4°C • Highly probable scenarios: • Between + 1,1°C et + 6,4°C • The facts confront us with the most pessimistic scnearios

  14. Concrete consequences • With + 2°C : • Decrease of agricultural yields • Risk of famine : + 200 million people • Lack of water : 1,8 billion people • Rising water levels: : 10 million people • Expansion of zones with malaria : + 50 million people • Extinction of 25 to 40% of all species • With + 3°C : • - 30% of the yield of wheat in India • Risk of famine : + 600 million people • Lack of water: 4 billion people • Rising water levels: 170 million people • Numerous islands erased from the globe • With + 4°C : • Collapse of agricultural yields • Expansion of the zones with malaria: + 400 million of people • Rising water levels:330 million people

  15. Stop temperature rise at+ 2 °C • + 2 °C : danger limit • How do we do it? • Stabilise the temperature • Stabilise the concentrations of GHG’s (450ppm) • Bring emissions back to natural « recycling » capacity • Divide worldwide emissions by half • The factor 4 to garanty equal rights for all

  16. …or to divide by 3 with 9 billion people Maximum emission rights (TC/inhabitant) to divide world emissions by 2, with 6 billion people… Berger 2005

  17. To stop at + 2 °C • Emissions must decline before 2015 • Developed countries (compared to 1990) • -25 à -40% in 2020 • -80 à -95% in 2050 • From 2020 on, developed countries must deviate substantially from the trajectory (except Africa) • World emissions : -50 à -85% en 2050

  18. Climate policies of the dominant Powers

  19. The general trend • Subordinate adaptation to the rhythm and needs of capital • Cost-risk analysis (example = Stern report) • Priority of technological solutions • Creation of new markets • New developement cycle of capital : « green capitalism  » • Point to the responsability of emerging countries • Use climate menace to impose their neoliberal policies

  20. The Kyoto protocol • Some positive aspects : • « common but differentiated responsabilities » • Concrete targets and sanctions • BUT noumerous problems • Insufficient targets: -5,2 % (reduced to -1,7%) • Emissions of maritime and air transport not taken into account • Carbone sinks =Emission reductions • Possible delocalisation of the efforts (CDM,MOC…) • Emission rights and carbon market: a form of privatisation of parts of the atmosphere

  21. Recent evolution of policies by the great powers • Insufficient commitments: • -20% in 2020 for the EU • Obama wants less than Kyoto • Ever more flexible mecanisms • Their role was limited with Kyoto • New technologies integrated as clean technologies: carbon sequestration, nuclear, biofuels… • A specific market for the forests:REDD • Make the lower classes take the brunt of the effort (ex : Carbon Tax ) • The answers to the climate and the economic crisis are contradictory, inconsistent public policies: cars, public transport…

  22. In the face of a predicted failure, the menace of barbaric management • New Orleans • Tuvalu, Vanuatu • The « Climate » report of the Pentagon: « the numbers of deaths caused by wars, by famine and by disease will decrease the size of the population which will readapt to the carrying capacity ».  Source: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for the US National Security, SCWARTZ & RANDALL, 2003

  23. A catastrophy can perhaps be avoided (in part…)

  24. Energy savings • A policy of« small gestures » is not sufficient • Fight against attempts to make you feel guilty • An important part of what you buy, of transportation … is unavoidable • Necessity of collective action to make possible a lifestyle that saves energy and is low in carbon use

  25. Saving energy • What possibilities? • Suppress useless productions • Armement, the army… • Numerous manufacturing of chemicals, of fertilisers… • Advertisements • Energy efficiency • Rehabilitation of housing • Norms for electrical devices • Norms of car engines… • Reorganisation of society (the most important source) • Ex. of transportation : • Urbanisation : working class expulsed far from the city centre • Problemes of freight : production « just in time », international division of labour according to the cost of labour

  26. Renewable energies • Solar : an IMMENSE potential • Its caracter limits its valorisation in a capitalist system: • Low density in energy • Difficult to appropriate • Necessity of a new orientation of research • Necessity of making available and of large distribution of technologies: not only for those who can pay …

  27. Budgets R&D Energie (AIE) Researhc to be urgently redirected! EnR 8,1%

  28. Our anticapitalist project

  29. Necessity of an anticapitalist strategy • The market is powerless: • A change which is too radical • Time is too short • Any change needs the « agreement of the citizens » • Capitalism confronts social forces with a dilemma • « To save nature or to increase the conditions of exploitation of the workers » • Increase the costs of the exploitation of nature versus a lowering of the cost of the work force • Our ecosocialist project : • Planning based at the same time on the democratically determined needs and taking into account the ecological problems

  30. Transitional method linked to an emergency program • A pedagocial role: • Demonstrate that it is possible • Confront capitalism with its contradictions • Link the social and the ecological dimension • The crises are fed by the same mecanisms: competition, search for profits, dictatorship of the markets … • Put the fulfillment of social needs and the respect of ecological equilibria at the centre of our program and our struggles

  31. An emergency planExamples of sectorial demands • Suppression of unnecessary and harmful industries • The building sector : • Public service of housing and renovation • Transportation of commodities: • Ban on long distance transport by road • Public policy for the development of infrastructure for rail transport • Transportation of people: • Free public transport • Development of the possibilities for public transport infrastructure • Stop the development of suburbia • « reintroduction » of the working classes in the city centres • The energy sector: • For a public service of the whole of the energy sector • Nationalisation of the big companies in the sector • Decentralisation of the means of production of energy • … in order to allow control by users and by employees • Agriculture : food souvereignty and organic/ecological farming • Drastic reduction of nitrogen containing fertilizers • A break with the productivist logic in the farming world

  32. An emergency planProfound transformations • Reorganisation and transformation of labour • People’s control on production • Get out of the contradiction consumer/worker: • Reduction of working hours must be a central axis of our program • Indispensible industrial reconversions : • Garanty employment, contracts, wages and work collectives • This must be realised by the workers themselves

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