The 21 st Century climate challenge

2. The 21st Century climate challenge “One generation plants a tree; the next generation gets the shade.” Chinese Proverb “You already know enough. So do I. It is not knowledge we lack. What is missing is the courage to understand what we know and to draw conclusions.” Sven Lindqvist

3. The21st Century climate challenge • Defining dangerous – keeping below a 2 degree increase in temperature • Three distinctive characteristics – it is cumulative, the effects are irreversible and it is global • Common but differentiated responsibility – The carbon footprint

4. Climate shocks: 5 human development tipping points: • Reduced agricultural productivity • Heightened water insecurity • Increased exposure to extreme weather events • Collapse of the ecosystems • Increased health risks ...Could result in a powerful systemic shock to human development accross a large group of countries

5. Climate change is an urgent matter. We need to act now. • Existing Carbon Stocks are already pushing up temperatures • In order to prevent catastrophic climate change, we need to limit warming to 2º Celsius

6. Greenhouse Gas Concentrations (especially CO2) are Directly Linked with Temperature Source: http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/greenhouse.htm

7. European heat wave, 2003 Distribution of summer (average) temperatures in Switzerland from 1864-2003 Heat wave was associated with widespread mortality, especially elderly Average temperature during the 2003 heat wave was 22°C, far outside the recorded range (mean value 17°C). Such an event is very unlikely in the context of historical climate variability. Estimated that probability of an extreme summer such as that of 2003 has more than doubled as a consequence of human-induced climate change.

8. What needs to be done?Post-2012 Kyoto negotiations can and must frame: A sustainable global emissions pathway translated into practical national strategies and national carbon budgets.

9. What needs to be done? Set a stabilisation target for CO2 at 450 ppm The costs are estimated at 1.6% of avarage global GDP to 2030.

10. The 21st Century carbonbudget is set at 1,456 Gt CO2 to avoid dangerous climate change and to stay within the 2 degrees C treshold

11. The 21st Century carbonbudget Current emissions run at twice this level and we could pass this level by 2032!

12. Rich countries must cut emissions by 30% by 2020 and 80% by 2050.

13. Mitigation • Setting a national carbon budget • Putting a price on carbon emissions: • Carbon taxing • Cap-and-trade system (reform the EU’s ETS)

14. Pricing Carbon: Taxation versus cap-and-trade • Administration differences • Price Predictability • Revenue Generation The bottom line is the programs need to produce sufficient emission cuts

15. Other instruments: • Feed-in tariffs for renewable energywith a 20% target by 2020 in renewable power generation • Increase energy efficiency for appliances and buildings • Transport – stronger fuel standards with a target of 120g/CO2/km by 2012; taxation for aviation • Breakthrough technologies, with a focus on Carbon Capture and Storage

16. Energy Efficiency: A “No Regrets” option • Energy Efficiency gains can save money and reduce emissions. • Appliances • Insulation • Lighting www.energetska-efikasnost.undp.hr

17. Some people walk more lightly than others • The distribution of current emissions points to an inverse relationship between climate change vulnerability and responsibility • If every person living in the developing world would have the same carbon footprint than an average person in the US or Canada, we would need the equivalent to nine planets to absorb the CO2 • Croatia had a carbon footprint of 5.3 tons of CO2 per person per year in 2004. This was up from 3.9 tons per person per year in 1990

18. Carbon Emissions from Croatia and World-wide

19. Internationalcooperation on finance and technology transfer is needed.

20. Bothmitigation and adaptation areneeded to truly fight climatechange and the threats it poses to humanity.

21. Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperation “If you are neutral in a situation of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.” Archbishop Desmond Tutu “An injustice committed against anyone is a threat to everyone.” Montesquieu

22. BothAdaptation and Mitigation are Needed

23. The state of human development shapes the process by which risk is converted into vulnerability

24. Towards adaptation apartheid Developed country investments dwarf adaptation funds

25. Extremeinequalities in adaptation capacity exist. International cooperation has been slow to materialize. Adaptation plans needs need to be part ofwider strategies of poverty alleviation. Additional financing needs for climate proofing infrastructure, adapting poverty reduction to climate change and strengthening disaster response are estimated to be at least 86 billion by 2015

26. The HDI for Croatia is 0.850, which gives the country a rank of 47th out of 177 countries with data

27. Croatia in comparison to other countries in the region

28. Croatia Human Development Index 2005

29. The Human Development Report 2007/2008 http://hdr.undp.org