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European Territorial Scenarios and Vision 2050. ESPON ET2050 JUNE 2013 Dublin. ET2050 Consortium. http://www.et2050.eu. ET2050 Goal. From Project Specifications : The ESPON Monitoring Committee,

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European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

European Territorial Scenarios

and Vision 2050

ESPON ET2050

JUNE 2013

Dublin


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

ET2050 Consortium


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

http://www.et2050.eu


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

ET2050 Goal

FromProject Specifications:

The ESPON Monitoring Committee,

DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit wish to start a territorial vision-building process that involves relevant stakeholdersat European, national and regional level,

having 2050 as time horizon


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

ET2050 Methodology

Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)

Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

  • Definition of criteria to evaluate policy-aims

  • Definition of relative weights (in the ESPON MC frame)

  • Identification of scientifically sound indicators to measure the criteria (to be calculated with outputs produced by forecast and foresight models)

  • Evaluation of the scenarios, and based on the evaluation adjustment of the scenarios

  • Evaluation of the VISION, and based on the evaluation refinement


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

European Territorial Vision 2050

A Vision is a dream of an ideal

future for European territory


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

Howtobuild a territorial Vision

Scientific input (scenariosand models towards 2050)

To be presented 13 June, andcfleafletbackground)

Existing territorial Visions

Cf SIR, chap 9 & annex + poster to commentduring ESPON seminar

Other material (ESPON projects, EU documents, OECD, World Bank strategies, ....)

Participatoryactivitieswithmainstakeholders


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

Howtobuild a territorial Vision


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

Main objective of the the Participatory Plan

Scientifically-driven

The building process of the scenarios and the Territorial VISION should be cyclical and dynamic allowing the ESPON Monitoring Committee and other main stakeholders to take active part in the of the VISION

VISION

Scenarios

Politically-driven


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

Participatoryplanandactivities

A database:

around 800 contacts , including different type of stakeholders (cf specifications); planning practitionner, European Commission,

  • (including Sec Gen, DG CLIM, DG ECFIN and DG EMPL, as requested by the ESPON CU),Council of the EU (DG G1 Regional Policy Team), European Parliament (REGI Commission), Committee of the Regions, ECOSOC, various other EU bodies/agencies (EEA, etc.), public interest groups (e.g. AEBR, AER, CPMR, Eurocities, Metrex), territorial groupings (Council of the Baltic Sea States, Danube Strategy, Grande Région, Plan Bleu, INTERREG programmes, etc.), non EU international organisations (Council of Europe, International Maritime Organisation, UNECE, UNEP, etc.) various national planning administrations (in particular past, current and coming presidencies of the NTCCP).

  • Group 4 includes a broad category of “scientific experts”, as well as two specific categories: ESPON project Lead Partners, and ESPON Contact Points.


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

Contactandconsultations: Parpfirstphase

  • Spring 2012 first round consultations,

    +/- 50 interviews (cf FIR synthesis)

  • Fall 2012: second round consultations:

    EuropeanCommission , EESC,(cf SIR synthesis)

  • 2 meetingswith D Huebnerfrom REGI committe of theEuropeanParliament, andcontactwithCoR

  • Workshopswith MC (cf FIR and SIR)


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

Territorial Visionroadmap /Parpphase 2

Summer 2013 elaboration of DRAFT 1 Territorial VisionDelivery: 23 September 2013

7 October 2013, Brussels:

ESPON dayworkshop/Conference on territorial Visionandscenarios

- a plenarysessionpresentinglastscenariosevolutionsandmodeling, AndDraft 1 TEVI

- Workshop on theDraft 1 TEVI

Participants: all participants to phase 1 Parp

Purpose:

Gather input for Draft 2 TEVI

Co ownershipbuilding


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

Territorial Visionroadmap

MidNovember 2013: Draft 2 TEVI

December 2013: EsponseminarLithuania

MC workshop on draft 2 TEVI

28 February 2014: Draft final report,

includingdraft 3 TEVI

Spring 2014: MC workshop on Draft 3 TEVi

June 2014: Final report, ESPON seminarGreece

Presentation of final TEVi to MC


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

workshop 12 June Dublin

A Vision is a dream of an ideal future for European territory

Which Europe should your children and grandchildren live in?


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

Twoactivities:

Purpose: to collect your views on

the desirability of key policy choices

NOT about the likeliness

Activity 1: rankingandselecting

Anonymous individual exercise 35 minutes

Activity 2:Mapping:

subgroup mixed geographically 70 minutes

WorkshopDublin, 12 June


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

Activity 1: individual, anonymous11 questions

2 groups of questions

1-6: ranking: relate to Europe as whole

7-11: selecting: betweenpolicychoices alternatives (potentiallyantagonistic),

A OR B , atdifferentgeographicallevel

no A and B for thesamequestionatthesamegeographicallevel

For thesamequestion, Possibility of A for onegeographicallevel, and B for another

WorkshopDublin, 12 June


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

  • Example: Ranking:

  • EU Enlargement

  • Is it desirable to enlarge the EU with new Member States (MS)? YES/Rather yes/rather not/No

  • Comment: feel free to comment:

  • questionnaire will be treated qualitatively, not quantitatively

WorkshopDublin, 12 June


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

WorkshopDublin, 12 June

  • Example: selecting:


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

WorkshopDublin, 12 June

  • Activity 2: mapping group per 8 countries


Maps 4 geographical levels

MAPS: 4 geographical levels

  • Europe in the world towards 2050

  • ESPON space and neighbouring countries towards 2050

  • Inside ESPON space

  • Regional Europe

  • Having in mind 2050 Vision (ideal future)


Maps towards vision 2050

MAPS towards Vision 2050


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

MAPS

  • )


Maps towards vision 20501

MAPS: Towards Vision 2050


Maps towards vision 20502

MAPS: towards Vision 2050

  • Which links Europe should favour with

  • The world

  • Neighbouring cpuntries

  • Inside ESPON space

  • Where to invest in priority in

  • The world

  • Neighbouring cuntries

  • Inside ESPON space


Maps towards vision et 2050

MAPS towards Vision Et 2050

  • Which areas shoud be protected (environnement or patrimonial)

  • At cross border areas with neighbouring countries

  • Inside ESPON space

  • Which cooperation to favour at regional and macroregionalevel

  • Core territory

  • Ad hoc, larger cooperation


Instructions

instructions

  • 3 posters

  • 4 geographical levels

  • 5 maps

  • 15 minutes per geographical level

  • 8 countries per group

  • No constraint

  • Be ‘European’ Vision 2050 oriented,

  • trying to reach a ‘group’ agreement,

  • Possibility for specific request, demand, suggestions: poster+questionnaire


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

OUTLINE FOR DISCUSSION

TOWARDS TERRITORIAL VISION EU 2050

Key Issues fromexistingmacroregional Visions

BALTIC SEA & NORTHERN PERIPHERIES

TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE FOR 2030 (VASAB)

NORTHWESTERN EUROPE

Feel free to add your comments!

In 2030 the Baltic Sea Region is a well-integrated and coherent macroregion

A model for successful implementation of the territorial cohesion policy

The Spatial Vision

New transnational cooperation zones

A well-balanced setup of metropolitan centres

Fast, reliable and environmentally efficient technologies of transport, information and communication

international gateways investment zones

transnational transport axes development corridors

Integrated energy production and supply system

A veritable European sea macroregion, which demonstrates an integrated land and sea-space planning and management

The NORVISION

well integrated into europe and the World Economy

Contact us:

balanced spatial structure

EASTERN EUROPE

Democratic and Co-operative Planning

GERMANY AND ALPINE COUNTRIES

igeat.ulb.ac.be

[email protected]

www.et2050.eu

Natural Resources, Ecological and Cultural Heritage Equilibrium

Shrinking populations et negative migration balances

Impact of neighbouring countries

Urban Regions Developing in an Environment Friendly Way

Greater inter- & intraregional disparities

Urban Regions as Motors of Economic Regional Development

Improvement of land use management

RaumkonzeptSchweiz

Urban Regions which Promote Social Integration

sustainable development at the core

Reinforcement of capital cities and major urban centres

difficulties in reducing GHg emissions And in increasing renewable energies

Urban Regions which are Attractive Places for their Populations and Visitors

Maintenance and enhancement of living spaces, economic areas and landscapes

Improvement of transport structure and accessibility

Improvement of governing structures & decentralisation

Human Activities which are in Harmony with Nature

Polycentric spatial development pattern enhancing competitiveness and territorial cooperation and partnerships

Rural Populations participate fully in Economic and Social Progress

Focused mainly on metropolitan regions and medium sized towns but includes some alpine regions.

DANUBIAN COUNTRIES

The ATLANTIC SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE

GREATER SOLIDARITY BETWEEN COASTAL AREA AND THE HINTERLAND

LeitbilderderRaumentwicklung (Germany)

Vision for the Danube region

Growth and innovation: organization of the territory around large metropolitan regions

TO RESPOND TO THE NEED TO STRUcTURE DEVELOPMENT AREAS WHICH ARE LESS DEPENDANT ON THE CAPITAL CITIES

An integration of all the countries of the zone to the European union

Maintaining essential services: safeguarding an urban system of central places, in particular in areas facing population decline

IDENTIFIES FIVE MAJOR PROJECT AND DEVELOPMENT AREAS INSIDE WHICH STRONGER – BUT NOT EXCLUSIVE – COOPERATION BETWEEN REGIONS IS REQUIRED

A balanced economic development and employment

Preserving resources, designing cultural regions: open space and cultural landscapes

A polycentric and decentralized development dynamic

Climate and energy as well as mobility and logistics to be included

An improvement of relations between countries and regions of the zone

SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES

SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE

SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

SOUTHERN EUROPE IN 2030 (espon)

THE MEDITERRANEAN IN 2030

Development of the cluster of the Latin Arch (Genoa, Nice, Marseille, Montpellier, Barcelona and Valencia) & Integration of the cluster Madrid-Seville Lisbon-Porto (HST network)

The Blue plan

Territorial fragmentation at the scale of the macroregion

A STRONGER AND RICHER ECONOMIC GROWTH

Local governance / participatory approach / Long term vision

An accentuated urban dimension in pan-Mediterranean cooperation

A contrasted urbanization: dense but polycentric in Italy and slovenia while dense and concentric in Egypt and lybia

DEVELOPPING EURO-MEDITERRANEAN SYNERGIES

rural areas and landscapes in Europe are much more diversified

Diversification of the rural economy

High quality food production

A worsening governance capacity and an uncertain future after the Arab spring

EXTENDING CERTAIN MEANS OF REDISTRIBUTION AND PROTECTION TO THE WHOLE OF THE MEDITERRANEAN

numerous changes have taken place in agricultural production, energy systems, water management systems and tourist development, in order to face the impacts of increasing drought

Small and medium scale agriculture

Water and energy-friendly production and technology

Contrasting demographical challenges: population ageing in slovenia and italy while young population in Lybia and egypt with various impacts on socio-economic and socio-cultural factors

Repairing and restoring coastal ecosystems

Biodiversity conservation

Threat of desertification that should be (partly) tackled by the development of green economies; turn to renewable energies; lybia and egypt as solar powers

STRENGHTENING COMPETITIVENESS

The densification process of coastal areas has continued but further sprawl could be avoided and natural areas were efficiently protected

Development of renewable energies

Improving transport systems

Sustainable tourism

Hinterland economic and social development


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

“Existing Vision key issue poster (Dublin castle

+ questionnaire to be distributed at

the end


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

“Too seek Europe, is to make it!

Europe exists through its search for the infinit

-and this is what I call adventure”

Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”


European territorial scenarios and vision 2050

www.et2050.eu

IGEAT

[email protected]

[email protected]


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