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Prospects for the Caribbean as a Gateway to North America

Prospects for the Caribbean as a Gateway to North America. Jean-Paul Rodrigue Associate Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA. (At least we’re not economists…). Academia: Don’t know much and don’t get no respect. Words I Promise not to Utter….

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Prospects for the Caribbean as a Gateway to North America

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  1. Prospects for the Caribbean as a Gateway to North America Jean-Paul Rodrigue Associate Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA

  2. (At least we’re not economists…) Academia: Don’t know much and don’t get no respect

  3. Words I Promise not to Utter… • Bullshit • Crap • WTF • Bitch • Pot smoking • Confused • “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious”

  4. Main Export-Oriented Regions and Shipping Routes Servicing North America Pacific Asia / American East Coast Intermodal (60%) Western Canada (5%) All Water (40%) Pacific Northwest (20%) Via Suez (5%) Pacific Southwest (75%) Via Panama (95%) Mexico(?%)

  5. CRB Index (CCI), Monthly Close, 1970-2011 Paradigm shift in input costs… Reaping the consequences of monetary policy.

  6. West Texas Intermediate, Monthly Nominal Spot Oil Price (1970-2011) This is also going to propagate along supply chains. Steaming, slowly…

  7. At the Crossroads… Which Value Proposition for the Caribbean? 1) Strong margins, but many not large enough to justify full dedicated services 3) East coast capacity issues 4) Last segment in import-based supply chains - + 2) Interlining between the America’s coastal systems

  8. The North-American Container Port System and its Multi-Port Gateway Regions Puget Sound Northeatern Seaboard Gateway Entry Load change Clearance Southwestern Seaboard San Pedro Bay Gulf Coast Southern FLorida The Caribbean Gateway? (RIMS) Pacific Mexican Coast

  9. Conditions suitable to the formation of a “Caribbean Gateway System”

  10. The Transshipment System

  11. The Insertion of Intermediate Hub Terminals Hub-and-Spoke Relay Interlining 15% of Transshipment Traffic 85% of Transshipment Traffic

  12. Major ports and future terminal developments in non-EU Med ports: impact of a changing political landscape? Container throughput in million TEU, capacity extensions in million TEU Enfidha (Tunisia) Capacity: +1 (2011) +2.5 (period 2011-2015) +2 (period 2015-2030) Rades (Tunisia) Traffic: 0.3 (2007) Ambarli (Turkey) Traffic: 2.26 (2008) Djendjen (Algeria) Capacity: +2 (DP World) Bejaia (Algeria) Traffic: 0.15 (2008) Capacity: +2.5 (>2010) Algiers (Algeria) Traffic: 0.5 (2007) Capacity: +0.8 (2010) Mersin (Turkey) Beirut (Lebanon) Traffic: 0.95 (2008) Haifa (Israel) Traffic: 1.39 (2008) Transshipment Corridor Tanger Med APMT: + 1.5 mln TEU Eurogate: +1.5 mln TEU Tanger Med II APMT/Akwa: + 3 mln TEU (2012) PSA: +2 mln TEU (2012) Damietta (Egypt) Capacity: +4 (2012) Misurata (Libya) Initial plans cancelled? Port Said (Egypt) Traffic: 3.2 (2008) Capacity: +2.5 (2011) Source: Notteboom (2009)

  13. Tanger Med: The Cartagena of the Mediterranean…

  14. Conventional Direct NorthAtlantic Central Atlantic South Atlantic / Gulf Transshipment Circum-Equatorial NorthAtlantic NorthAtlantic Central Atlantic Central Atlantic South Atlantic / Gulf South Atlantic / Gulf Caribbean Transshipment Triangle

  15. The Caribbean Transshipment Market: Triangle or Corridor? Location (+) Depth (=) Land (=) Costs (+) Hinterland (-) Ownership (+)

  16. Possible Options in the Development of a Transshipment Hub

  17. The Big Port Squeeze: Largest Available Containership, 1970-2011 (in TEUs) E “Emma” Class(12,500 TEU) S “Sovereign” Class(8,000 TEU) R “Regina” Class(6,000 TEU) L “Lica” Class(3,400 TEU)

  18. Pushing Atomization in the Hinterland and Massification in the Foreland Capacity Frequency Atomization Hinterland-Based Regionalization Different momentums Economies of scale Functional Integration PORT HINTERLAND FrequencyMitigation CapacityGap PORT FORELAND Massification Foreland-Based Regionalization Economies of scale

  19. The Insertion of an Intermediate Hub as a Gateway Inland Terminal HINTERLAND GATEWAY FORELAND Main Shipping Lane INTERMEDIATE HUB (Caribbean)

  20. A Taxonomy of Logistic Zones Port Port-Centric B Freight Village Corridor Intermodal Industrial Park Inland Port A Industrial Park A) Inland terminal B) Freight services

  21. Port Centric Logistics Zones: The Search for Added Value Port Terminal On-Dock / Near Dock Rail FTZ / Manufacturing Container Depots Consolidation / deconsolidation Transloading Postponement

  22. The “Terminalization” of Logistics Terminalization

  23. Panama Canal Expansion and Supply Chain Differentiation: Pick Your Preference

  24. Comparative Advantages in Supply Chain Preferences: A Complex Balancing Act Shipping Rate from Shanghai for a 40 Foot Container, Mid 2010 Vancouver Montreal $2,300 $2,110 $4,040 $3,950 Time New York $3,700 $1,830 Los Angeles Costs $2,620 $1,400 Houston $3,510 $2,560 Inbound rates: function of distance Outbound rates: function of trade imbalances Reliability (?) Inbound Outbound $1,300 $2,100

  25. RIMS as an IT Triangle: Key Information Technology Drivers in Freight Distribution

  26. Conclusion: The Caribbean Looking Beyond Transshipment

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