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Prospects for the Caribbean as a Gateway to North America. Jean-Paul Rodrigue Associate Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA. (At least we’re not economists…). Academia: Don’t know much and don’t get no respect. Words I Promise not to Utter….

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Prospects for the Caribbean as a Gateway to North America

Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Associate Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA


(At least we’re not economists…)

Academia: Don’t know much and don’t get no respect


Words I Promise not to Utter…

  • Bullshit

  • Crap

  • WTF

  • Bitch

  • Pot smoking

  • Confused

  • “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious”


Main Export-Oriented Regions and Shipping Routes Servicing North America

Pacific Asia / American East Coast

Intermodal (60%)

Western Canada (5%)

All Water (40%)

Pacific Northwest

(20%)

Via Suez (5%)

Pacific Southwest

(75%)

Via Panama (95%)

Mexico(?%)


CRB Index (CCI), Monthly Close, 1970-2011

Paradigm shift in input costs…

Reaping the consequences of monetary policy.


West Texas Intermediate, Monthly Nominal Spot Oil Price (1970-2011)

This is also going to propagate along supply chains.

Steaming, slowly…


At the Crossroads… Which Value Proposition for the Caribbean?

1) Strong margins, but many not large enough to justify full dedicated services

3) East coast capacity issues

4) Last segment in import-based supply chains

-

+

2) Interlining between the America’s coastal systems


The North-American Container Port System and its Multi-Port Gateway Regions

Puget Sound

Northeatern Seaboard

Gateway

Entry

Load change

Clearance

Southwestern Seaboard

San Pedro Bay

Gulf Coast

Southern FLorida

The Caribbean Gateway?

(RIMS)

Pacific Mexican Coast


Conditions suitable to the formation of a “Caribbean Gateway System”


The Transshipment System


The Insertion of Intermediate Hub Terminals

Hub-and-Spoke

Relay

Interlining

15% of Transshipment Traffic

85% of Transshipment Traffic


Major ports and future terminal developments in non-EU Med ports: impact of a changing political landscape?

Container throughput in million TEU, capacity extensions in million TEU

Enfidha (Tunisia)

Capacity: +1 (2011)

+2.5 (period 2011-2015)

+2 (period 2015-2030)

Rades (Tunisia)

Traffic: 0.3 (2007)

Ambarli (Turkey)

Traffic: 2.26 (2008)

Djendjen (Algeria)

Capacity: +2 (DP World)

Bejaia (Algeria)

Traffic: 0.15 (2008)

Capacity: +2.5 (>2010)

Algiers (Algeria)

Traffic: 0.5 (2007)

Capacity: +0.8 (2010)

Mersin (Turkey)

Beirut (Lebanon)

Traffic: 0.95 (2008)

Haifa (Israel)

Traffic: 1.39 (2008)

Transshipment Corridor

Tanger Med

APMT: + 1.5 mln TEU

Eurogate: +1.5 mln TEU

Tanger Med II

APMT/Akwa: + 3 mln TEU (2012)

PSA: +2 mln TEU (2012)

Damietta (Egypt)

Capacity: +4 (2012)

Misurata (Libya)

Initial plans cancelled?

Port Said (Egypt)

Traffic: 3.2 (2008)

Capacity: +2.5 (2011)

Source: Notteboom (2009)


Tanger Med: The Cartagena of the Mediterranean…


Conventional

Direct

NorthAtlantic

Central

Atlantic

South Atlantic / Gulf

Transshipment

Circum-Equatorial

NorthAtlantic

NorthAtlantic

Central

Atlantic

Central

Atlantic

South Atlantic / Gulf

South Atlantic / Gulf

Caribbean

Transshipment

Triangle


The Caribbean Transshipment Market: Triangle or Corridor?

Location (+)

Depth (=)

Land (=)

Costs (+)

Hinterland (-)

Ownership (+)


Possible Options in the Development of a Transshipment Hub


The Big Port Squeeze: Largest Available Containership, 1970-2011 (in TEUs)

E “Emma” Class(12,500 TEU)

S “Sovereign” Class(8,000 TEU)

R “Regina” Class(6,000 TEU)

L “Lica” Class(3,400 TEU)


Pushing Atomization in the Hinterland and Massification in the Foreland

Capacity

Frequency

Atomization

Hinterland-Based Regionalization

Different momentums

Economies of scale

Functional Integration

PORT HINTERLAND

FrequencyMitigation

CapacityGap

PORT FORELAND

Massification

Foreland-Based Regionalization

Economies of scale


The Insertion of an Intermediate Hub as a Gateway

Inland Terminal

HINTERLAND

GATEWAY

FORELAND

Main Shipping Lane

INTERMEDIATE HUB

(Caribbean)


A Taxonomy of Logistic Zones

Port

Port-Centric

B

Freight Village

Corridor

Intermodal Industrial Park

Inland Port

A

Industrial Park

A) Inland terminal

B) Freight services


Port Centric Logistics Zones: The Search for Added Value

Port Terminal

On-Dock /

Near Dock Rail

FTZ / Manufacturing

Container Depots

Consolidation / deconsolidation

Transloading

Postponement


The “Terminalization” of Logistics

Terminalization


Panama Canal Expansion and Supply Chain Differentiation: Pick Your Preference


Comparative Advantages in Supply Chain Preferences: A Complex Balancing Act

Shipping Rate from Shanghai for a 40 Foot Container, Mid 2010

Vancouver

Montreal

$2,300

$2,110

$4,040

$3,950

Time

New York

$3,700

$1,830

Los Angeles

Costs

$2,620

$1,400

Houston

$3,510

$2,560

Inbound rates: function of distance

Outbound rates: function of trade imbalances

Reliability (?)

Inbound

Outbound

$1,300

$2,100


RIMS as an IT Triangle: Key Information Technology Drivers in Freight Distribution


Conclusion: The Caribbean Looking Beyond Transshipment


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