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Afghanistan National Estimate

Afghanistan National Estimate. Prof. Randall Nichols. Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/maps/maptemplate_af.html. CYB 610 – Z3. Fall 2012. Team. TL – Chris Lewis XO – Lester Thompson – Military Estimate XO – Skip Corbin – Political Estimate

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Afghanistan National Estimate

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  1. AfghanistanNational Estimate Prof. Randall Nichols Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/maps/maptemplate_af.html CYB 610 – Z3 Fall 2012

  2. Fall 2012 Team • TL – Chris Lewis • XO – Lester Thompson – Military Estimate • XO – Skip Corbin – Political Estimate • XO – Robert Howe – Economic Estimate

  3. Fall 2012 Team • Michael Amao • Heather Tarallo • Mo Ismail • Michael Surdey • Shane Liszewski • William Quick

  4. Fall 2012 Agenda • Executive Summary • Afghanistan National Estimate • Military Estimate - Facts - Evidence - Judgments - Summary • Political/Diplomatic Estimate - Facts - Evidence - Judgments - Summary • Economic Estimate - Facts - Evidence - Judgments - Summary • References

  5. Executive SummaryMilitary Estimate • ANA will ethnically fracture after 2014 • ANSF members join Insurgents and Militias • Start in mid 2015 • Peace cannot be negotiated • Civil war • By EOY 2015 • Biggest and most important judgment Fall 2012 5

  6. Executive SummaryPolitical/Diplomatic Estimate • Increased infectious disease outbreaks • High risk – mid year 2014 • Rapid expansion of drug trade • Growing poppies • Infiltration of ANSF • Very high risk – 2014 • Civil war • By EOY 2015 Fall 2012 6

  7. Executive SummaryEconomic Estimate • Afghanistan will not be able to self sustain its economy when foreign aid is reduced • Agriculture cannot be relied upon for economic growth • Mining won’t amount to economic prosperity • New Silk Road won’t amount to economic prosperity • Donor fatigue, corruption will lead to reduction in aid • Foreign military reduction will negatively impact Afghan economy • Reduction in provincial reconstruction teams (PRT) • Jobs and revenue loss • Reduced foreign spending Fall 2012 7

  8. Military Estimate Fall 2012 8

  9. Fall 2012 MILITARY – Facts • Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) • Afghan National Army (ANA) - includes Afghan Air Force (AAF) - Security Operation Command (SOC) • Afghan National Police (ANP) • Afghan Local Police (ALP) • Afghan Public Protection Force (APPF) • ANSF growth target – 352,000 by end of 2012 • Already achieved

  10. Fall 2012 MILITARY – Facts • Manpower available for military service • males age 16-49: 7,056,339 • females age 16-49: 6,653,419 (2010 est.) • Manpower fit for military service • males age 16-49: 4,050,222 • females age 16-49: 3,797,087 (2010 est.)

  11. Fall 2012 MILITARY - Facts • Manpower reaching military age each year • Male – 392,116 • Female – 370, 295 • Service • Must be 22 years old • 4 year term

  12. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsANSF • Take security responsibility in 2014 • Two bodies responsible for civic order and protection • Afghan National Army (ANA) • Reports to Ministry of Defence (MoD) - oversees entire Afghan military • Afghan National Police (ANP) • Reports to Ministry of Interior (MoI) - responsible for law enforcement in Afghanistan

  13. Fall 2012 MILITARY - Facts Growth of ANSF 2003 – 2011 Source: Checchia, M. (2012, January). Corruption in the afghan national security forces. Civil Military Fusion Centre. Retrieved from https://www.cimicweb.org/Documents/CFC AFG Security Archive/CFC_Afghanistan_Corruption-in-ANSF_Jan12.pdf DLA: December 1, 2012

  14. Fall 2012 MILITARY – FactsANA • Mission • Preserve peace and security • Provide for the defense of Afghanistan • Overall force strength • 178, 504 assigned to ANA - 74-81% present for duty • 6,172 assigned to AAF – Target of 8,000 and 140 aircraft by 2016 • 94% present for duty

  15. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsSubunits of ANA • National HQ – Kabul • National Commando Brigade – Kabul • 111th Division – Kabul • 201st Corps – Kabul • 203rd Corps – Gardez • 205th Corps – Kandahar • 207th Corps – Herat • 209th Corps – Mazar-e-Sharif • 215th Corps – LashkarGah

  16. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsAfghan National Air Force Units • AAF Headquarters – Kabul • Kabul Air Wing • Kandahar Air Wing • Shindand Air Wing (planned) • Jalalabad Detachment • Mazir e Sharif Detachment • Gardez Detachment • Herat Detachment

  17. Fall 2012 MILITARY – FactsANA Area of Operations Source: Radin, C. (2011, May). Afghan national army update, may 2011. Long War Journal. Retrieved from http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/05/afghan_national_army_4.php DLA: December 3, 2012

  18. Fall 2012 MILITARY – FactsCurrent ANA Subunit Strength Source: Sopko, John F. (2012, October). Quarterly Report to the United States Congress. Retrieved 12/04/2012 from http://www.sigar.mil/pdf/audits/2012-10-30audit-13-1.pdf

  19. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsAfghan National Police (ANP) Units • Several Units including: • Afghan Uniformed Police (AUP) • Afghan Border Police (ABP) • Afghan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP) • Criminal Investigation Division • Counter Narcotics Police of Afghanistan (CNPA) • Afghan Public Protection Force (APPF)

  20. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsOverall Police Force Strength • ANP (as of May 2012) • 106,538 assigned to AUP • 22,243 assigned to ABP • 14,585 assigned to ANCOP • Plus other ANP forces • Target growth • 157,000 by end of October 2012 • Projected to be ahead of schedule in May 2012 149,208

  21. MILITARY - Facts Police Force Strength • Afghan Local Police • Est. July 2010 • 13, 412 (as of May 2012) • Target growth of 30,000 by end of 2014 • Complements counterinsurgency efforts by targeting rural areas with limited to no ANSF presence Fall 2012 21

  22. MILITARY - FactsPolice Force Strength • Afghan Public Protection Force • 10,000 guards (as of May 2012) • Target growth of 30,000 by March 2013 • Units trained to protect • People • Critical infrastructure • Construction projects • Convoys Fall 2012 22

  23. MILITARY – FactsWomen in the Armed Forces • 1,370 women in the ANP • 350 women in ANA • Including 2 female pilot candidates • Currently represent 3% of the ANA recruits • Numbers are increasing steadily Fall 2012 23

  24. MILITARY - FactsAfghan Local Police (ALP) • Established by President Karzai • Afghan MOI • August 2010 • Complementary component of Village Stability Operations (VSO) • To enhance security and governance • Link local villages to the government Fall 2012 24

  25. MILITARY - FactsAfghan Local Police (ALP) • Always deployed with VSO • To be expanded to 99 sites • Up to 30,000 ALP personnel • No future beyond two to five years • To be disarmed and absorbed into security forces Fall 2012 25

  26. MILITARY - FactsAfghan Local Police (ALP) • Ineffective communications regarding implementation • Created confusion and disruption • Logistics and pay • Hampered visibility of MoI payment records • Candidates not being processed • Graduating and being assigned with incomplete administration requirements • Lack of equipment, fuel and ammunition • Issues with roles and responsibility Fall 2012 26

  27. MILITARY – FactsIran • Shares • Several religious, linguistic and ethnic groups • Common languages • During Soviet invasion of Afghanistan • Maintained relations • Soviet Union • Afghanistan • Supported Persian speaking Shia groups • Hazara • Funded, trained, supplied and gave sanctuary in Iran Fall 2012 27

  28. Military - FactsIran • Viewed Taliban rise as threat • Security • Ideological • Economic • Supported the Northern Alliance • Taliban backed Sunni Islamist militants • Launched attacks against Iran • 1988 Taliban massacred • Hazari civilians • Iranians with diplomatic credentials Fall 2012 28

  29. MILITARY - FactsIran • Ethnic and faction mindset • Opposed to Saudi Arabia • Involved in peace talks with Taliban • Guardian of Afghan Farsi speakers and Shias • Tajiks • Hazaras • Against Pashtuns Fall 2012 29

  30. MILITARY - FactsPakistan - History • British rule • What is now India, Pakistan and Bangladesh • Separation between Hindus and Muslims • Pakistan and India granted Independence • Ethnic tribal clashes in Pakistan • Bangladesh broke away from Pakistan • Became independent country • Helped by Indian soldiers • Created friction between India and Pakistan Fall 2012 30

  31. MILITARY - FactsPakistan - History • Strategic goal • Prevent Afghanistan and India alliance • In case of war with India • Soviet invasion of Afghanistan • Trained and resourced mujihadeen • With aid of CIA Fall 2012 31

  32. MILITARY - FactsPakistan - History • Later supported the Taliban • Pashtun organization • 14 million Pashtun in Pakistan • Viewed as Pakistan friendly • Military and ISI provided resources and training • Still supports Taliban • Provides sanctuary in western provinces Fall 2012 32

  33. MILITARY - FactsPashtun Regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan Source: Militancy in the pashtun belt; perspective of a peace jirga participant. (n.d.). Regional Institute of Policy Research & Training. Retrieved from http://www.khalidaziz.com/MILITANCY_IN_THE_PASHTUN_BELT_FINAL.pdf DLA: December 3, 2012 Fall 2012 33

  34. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsInsurgents • Taliban • Leading faction • Leadership resides in Pakistan • Led by Mullah Mohammad Omar • Other insurgent groups active • Haqqani network • Hezb-e-Islami • Tora Bora Military • The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) • Logical and political base in Pakistan

  35. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - History • Born in Kandahar and the Deobandimadrass • Warlords running Afghanistan after Soviet withdrawal • Clerics came together to take action against warlords • Attracted young Afghan refugees • Provided free education • Housing • Food • Presented ideal of recovering homeland • Creating a pure Islamic state

  36. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - History • Conquered Kabul in 1996 • Controlled 80-90% of Afghaistan by September 2001 • Unable to defeat pockets in the north • Commanded by • Rabbani • Massoud • Dostum • Sayyaf • Ismail Khan • They joined together to create the Northern Alliance

  37. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - Organization • Hierarchical structure • Autonomous groups • Leadership located in Quetta • Taliban published code of conduct for fighters • The Lahya • Structure • Hierarchical organization • Responsibilities

  38. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - Organization Source: European Asylum Support Office.(2012, July). Afghanistan Taliban Strategies – Recruitment. Retrieved 12/04/2012 from http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/asylum/european-asylum-support-office/bz3012564enc_complet_en.pdf

  39. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - Organization Source: Afsar, Shahid, Samples, Chris & Wood, Thomas. (2008, April 22). The Taliban: An organizational analysis. Retrieved 12/06/2012 from http://www.humansecuritygateway.info/documents/MILREVIEW_Taliban_Organizational_Analysis.pdf

  40. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - Funding • Jihadist networks in the Arab Gulf • Mosques • Illicit companies • Pakistani ISI is a main funder • Taxes in the areas they control • Agricultural products • Including Opium

  41. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - Recruitment • Afghan refugee camps, mosques and Deobandimadrassas • Local recruitment by mullahs • Religious networks • Kin, community, schools and universities • Locals in Afghanistan • Pakistani fighters • NATO estimates 40 percent of Taliban ranks

  42. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - Motivation • Two categories • Hard-core fighters • Driven by ideology • Madrassa students • Youngsters recruited by clerics • Non-core fighters • Local militia • Mercenary • Part-time fighters • Taliban seek buy-in from local communities • Fighters and commanders deployed in own area

  43. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - Motivation • Poverty • Government failings • The presence of foreign troops • Unemployment • Community conflicts • Outcasts • Religion • Indoctrination • Co-opting former enemies

  44. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTaliban - Non-Pashtuns • Recruitment of non-Pashtuns • Taliban attitude changed in 2006 • Now actively recruiting non-Pashtuns • Uzbeks, Tajeks and Turkmen • Ethnically mixed Taliban fronts now being seen • Non-Pashtun appointed local commanders • To connect to non-Pashtun village elders

  45. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsEthnic Composition in the North Source: European Asylum Support Office.(2012, July). Afghanistan Taliban Strategies – Recruitment. Retrieved 12/04/2012 from http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/asylum/european-asylum-support-office/bz3012564enc_complet_en.pdf

  46. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsTalibanInsurgent Activity Source: Radin, CJ. (2012, March 22). ISAF's new plan for Afghanistan. Retrieved 12/04/2012 from http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/03/us_general_john_alle.php

  47. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsWarlords • Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989 • Soviet supported government fell in 1992 • Mujahideen factions formed coalitions • Tajiks and Uzbeks in the north • Hazaras in the center • Pashtuns in the east and south • Civil war 1992 to 1996 • Competing factions

  48. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsWarlords • Government formed in 1992 • Some Uzbek and Tajik joined mujahideen • Regional strongmen controlled local communities • Government had no control • Competing factions • Fought street battles • Abused local population • Extortion

  49. Fall 2012 MILITARY - FactsWarlords • Ousted by Taliban in 1996 • Small pockets in the north formed alliance • Fought against Taliban during coalition invasion • Invited to join Karzai in government

  50. Fall 2012 Military Judgments on ANSF • ANA ethnically fracture after 2014 • ANSF unable to defeat the Taliban • ANSF members join insurgents and militias

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