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What RCM Data Are Available for California Impacts Modeling? (How Good Is It?)

What RCM Data Are Available for California Impacts Modeling? (How Good Is It?). W. J. Gutowski, Jr., Z. Pan, C. Anderson, R. W. Arritt, F. Otieno, E. S. Takle Iowa State University J. H. Christensen, O. B. Christensen Danish Meteorological Institute Copenhagen, Denmark.

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What RCM Data Are Available for California Impacts Modeling? (How Good Is It?)

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  1. What RCM Data Are Available for California Impacts Modeling?(How Good Is It?) W. J. Gutowski, Jr., Z. Pan, C. Anderson, R. W. Arritt, F. Otieno, E. S. Takle Iowa State University J. H. Christensen, O. B. Christensen Danish Meteorological Institute Copenhagen, Denmark California Energy Commission (June 2000)

  2. Outline • Overview - Regional Climate Simulation • Biases as norms for evaluating climate change • Precipitation • Tmin, Tmax • Climate change for selected locations in CA • Conclusions: Ranges for scenarios California Energy Commission (June 2000)

  3. Outline • Overview - Regional Climate Simulation California Energy Commission (June 2000)

  4. What is an RCM? Much like a GCM but ...

  5. Sample RCM Output

  6. DX = 250 km contours every 250 m

  7. DX = 50 km contours every 250 m

  8. DX = 10 km contours every 250 m

  9. US Simulations Longer Than 1 Year

  10. Simulations

  11. Domain

  12. Purpose • Evaluate RCM performance • Compare RCM and GCM projections • Assess U.S. regional climate change uncertainty

  13. Outline • Overview - Regional Climate Simulation • Biases as norms for evaluating climate change • Precipitation • Tmin, Tmax California Energy Commission (June 2000)

  14. Possible Comparisons? Reanalysis RegCM2 OBS HadCM Cont/Scen HIRHAM HadCM Cont/Scen Driving Differences

  15. Definition of Biases Reanalysis RegCM2 OBS RCM (performance) bias

  16. Definition of Biases Reanalysis RegCM2 Inter-model bias HIRHAM

  17. Definition of Biases Reanalysis RegCM2 Forcing bias HadCM RegCM2

  18. Definition of Biases G-R nesting bias RegCM2 HadCM HadCM

  19. Climate Change HadCM control RegCM2 Change HadCM scenario RegCM2

  20. Climate Change P Change Control Scenario

  21. Climate Change P Change Max Bias Control Scenario

  22. Analysis Regions

  23. Seasonal-regional biases Definitions Po, Pm are observed, model precipitation N is total grids in the region Climate change ratio

  24. Tmin, Tmax biases

  25. Outline • Overview - Regional Climate Simulation • Biases as norms for evaluating climate change • Precipitation • Tmin, Tmax • Climate change for selected locations in CA California Energy Commission (June 2000)

  26. 0 1 2

  27. 0 1 2

  28. 0 1 2

  29. Analysis Points 1 2 3 4 5

  30. Distribution:Monthly Precipitation

  31. CA Temp Biases: Tmax - small, mixed Tmax - slightly cool Tmin - warm (few oC) Tmin - small, mixed

  32. Other Models? PIRCS OBS (1993) (1993) [mm]

  33. PIRCS (1993) [mm]

  34. PIRCS (1993) [mm]

  35. Outline • Overview - Regional Climate Simulation • Biases as norms for evaluating climate change • Precipitation • Tmin, Tmax • Climate change for selected locations in CA • Conclusions: Ranges for scenarios California Energy Commission (June 2000)

  36. ** = Subject to quality of driving GCM! California Energy Commission (June 2000)

  37. Conclusions • Interannual variability in RegCM2 and HIRHAM is less than observed. • Ratio of climate change to biases is especially large in the California region • Differences between RCM and GCM imply room for RCMs to add value to GCM simulations • Regional warming signal is less robust than precipitation change • Future warming projection has large inter-model differences California Energy Commission (June 2000)

  38. Acknowledgments • Primary Funding: Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) • Additional Support: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. National Science Foundation California Energy Commission (June 2000)

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