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Flynn Effect 1: Empirical Puzzle

Flynn Effect 1: Empirical Puzzle . Linda S. Gottfredson, PhD School of Education University of Delaware Newark, DE 19716. Schelling Symposium, “What is Intelligence?,” University of Maryland, November 19, 2007. 3 premature claims—they don’t fit the full pattern of evidence.

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Flynn Effect 1: Empirical Puzzle

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  1. Flynn Effect 1: Empirical Puzzle Linda S. Gottfredson, PhD School of Education University of Delaware Newark, DE 19716 Schelling Symposium, “What is Intelligence?,” University of Maryland, November 19, 2007

  2. 3 premature claims—they don’t fit the full pattern of evidence • IQ rise = rise in general intelligence (general learning & reasoning ability, or g) • IQ rise caused by cultural change (donning “scientific spectacles”) • IQ rise cannot be genetic

  3. IQ tests don’t measure level or amount of anything • IQ = deviation score (standing within age group) • IQ score has no intrinsic meaning Example of Flynn effect—13-year-olds now score like 16-year-olds once x Ravens Raw score x 5 more items correct =15 IQ points 27 39 47 54 59 z: -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 IQ: 55 70 85 100 115 130145

  4. Some subtests increase, others notNo necessary effect on positive manifold (g) No necessary effect on heritabilityNo paradox raw: %ile 1 15 50 85 99 Arithmetic Similarities Vocabulary IQ scores have risen a lot, but has general intelligence? Information Coding z: -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 IQ: 55 70 85 100 115 130145

  5. Sample IQ Items—Manifest Content Irrelevant to g Infer the rule More abstract Complexity is the active ingredient: More complex tasks are more “g loaded” % = % of 16-65 year-olds getting at least partial credit for answer, WAIS, 1955

  6. IQ increases strictly cultural? • Trends in height mirror trends in IQ • Height trend (and paradoxes) cannot be explained by: • Wearing scientific spectacles • Individual multiplier (any genetic advantage triggers environmental ratcheting of all) • Social multipliers (group means influence growth) • Biology cannot be ruled out for IQ trends

  7. IQ/height trends strictly non-genetic? • Many claims, but little evidence • Family studies (showing high heritability, no shared effects) cannot be divorced from Flynn effect • Cultural diffusion is not regular, uniform, pervasive • Are gains within or just between families? • Heterosis predicts none within families Current hypotheses interesting, but causal mechanisms vague & post hoc Sibships or cousins O O O O O O O O O O O O OO O O O 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

  8. Thank you

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