RAPID PROTOTYPING TEAM: MISSION ANALYSIS

1. RAPID PROTOTYPING TEAM: MISSION ANALYSIS Major B.T. Rideout Rapid Prototyping Team Comm 703-432-4103 Brian.rideout@usmc.mil

2. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Agenda • Background / Challenges • Time, Information Glut, Requirements • Doctrine & Models • “Ownership vs. Stewardship” • Sphere of Influence • Team Orientation • Mission Analysis Process & Outputs • Specified, Implied, Essential, Mission, Restraints, Constraints, Assumptions, Shortfalls • Requests for Info • Risks vs. Issues • Intent • FY10 TEEP

3. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Background Purpose • Promulgate philosophy behind creation of Rapid Prototyping Team IOT generate positive, productive “shaping” discussion • Provide Mission Analysis “artifacts” • Gain approval for Rapid Pro Mission Statement • Receive guidance on TEEP development • Enable interoperability of future [PM Intel] capabilities, reduce redundancies and gaps

4. RAPID PRO: Challenges… Findings: DoD Wide • (-) DoD ISR Integration Roadmap does not… • ID future requirements [and how DoD plans to achieve them] • ID which requirements are already filled or “saturated” • ID critical gaps • ID funding priorities • Measure progress (quantitative, qualitative) • Define requirements for global persistent surveillance • ….or how to use current assets to attain it • ID enterprise-level architecture of what the ISR enterprise should be • Show how ISR (existing & future) will fit into a vision for common architecture to efficiently meet priority ISR requirements or provide basis for making trade-offs among competing programs • Provide a basis for determining ‘best value’ mix of present and future capabilities WRT place in an ISR architecture

5. RAPID PRO: Challenges… Findings: DoD Wide • (-) DoD’s approach limits ability to optimize use of available assets • Lacks visibility of all ISR assets (theater, tactical) • Lacks metrics and feedback to evaluate impact of ISR assets • (-) Delay in delivering new systems leads to unplanned investments to keep legacy systems relevant • *********************************************************************** • As-Is acquisitions practices perpetuate unshared data islands • DoD 8320.02 (23 Apr 2007) “Data Sharing” in a Net-Centric DoD • Shared data (information) access is THE primary “Information Dominance” enabler.

6. RAPID PRO: Challenges… Information Saturation • Information “Glut” • Information processing power of current computer based communication systems far exceed human capacity to process it (Denning 2006) • Greatest limits to achieving information superiority are cognitive limits and mobile networking bandwidth (Hayes-Roth 2006) • Cognition / Bandwidth = Fixed; Data volume increases exponentially • Solution: Operationally based semantic filtering • RF centric C2 architecture insufficient to attain Net-Centric Operations. • Focus on “valuable” and “relevant” bits of data • Do above in context of time; Filter “noise” • * VIRT = Valuable Information, Right Time * Dr Rick Hayes-Roth, NPS

7. RAPID PRO: Challenges Requirements Shift • “As-Is” vs. “To-Be” • Significant MCCDC / OpFor Paradigm shift VS. These Fall Down 4600 years – still there….

8. RAPID PRO: Requirements Pyramid MCISR-E, Intel Roadmap, USMC Vision & Strategy 2025 ICD DCGS14, PISR12,Actionable Intel10 CDD x 3 UGS, WFVPS, EW, etc CPD x ? (< 21)

9. Tactical Spiral RAPID PRO: Doctrine & Models • Goal: Dynamic, scalable organizations capable of supporting faster, tighter decision spirals from operational level “planners” to tactical level “executors.” • Structure must plan, train and equip along these lines. Intelligence Cycle Decision Cycle Planning & Direction Observe Utilization Collection Orient Act Processing & Exploitation Dissemination Decide Analysis & Production

10. Knowledge at the point of Action Automagic Exploitation II. Near-Real Time Model “Intel for the Executor” RAPID PRO: Deliberate (Analytical) vs. NRT Intelligence Cycle I. Deliberate Model “Intel for Intel” Planning & Direction Collection Utilization Processing & Exploitation Dissemination Analysis & Production

11. Critical Vulnerability DOCTRINE & MODELS Sphere of Influence G-2, Collection Management War-fighter Planning & Direction Systems & Software Utilization Collection Processing & Exploitation Dissemination Analysis & Production DCGS Surv & Target ID, EW Human in the Loop Rapid Prototyping

12. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Process & Outputs • Specified Tasks • Implied Tasks • Essential Tasks • Proposed Mission Statement • Restraints • Constraints • Assumptions • Resource Shortfalls • People, Funding • Requests for Information (RFI)

13. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Specified Tasks • Requirements related… • Receive, understand, prioritize requirements • JCIDS/EFDS, UUNS to satisfy changing defense intel needs • Emphasize functional capability areas described by MCISR-E and USMC ISR Roadmap • Provide USMC w/ intelligence means to find, fix, kill enemy • Coordinate relationships w/ service HQ, MCCDC, OpFor and other key partners (within Intel Community) • Continuous MARFOR / OPFOR feedback • Using units / operator input [anticipate requirements] • Execution related… • Meet qualitative & quantitative user needs • ID, develop, deliver, sustain leading edge capabilities • Experiment with relevant technologies; lay foundation for future capabilities

14. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Specified Tasks cont… • Execution cont… • Pursue innovative technologies w/ emphasis on fully-functional and interoperable technologies • Enhance new concepts/technologies • Shape existing/emerging capabilities; fulfill Intel ‘vision’ • Force interoperability within and across functional areas (PISR, DCGS, Actionable Intelligence) • Complete MCDs (1st QTR) • Develop enterprise PISR architecture • Establish framework for Rapid Pro processes • Business processes in place (technology assessment and integration) that achieve the synoptic view of the battle-space • ID Sensor Data Standards (3rd QTR) • ID, develop, transition material solutions [PORs]

15. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Specified Tasks cont… • Programmatic Functions related… • Plan, coordinated, execute (programmatic functions) • Maintain full set of [appropriate] acquisitions documents • Update APBA, PMP (1st QTR) • Execute available resources ($$) • Maintain the full set of acquisition documents • * Coordinate relationships w/ service HQ, MCCDC, OpFor and other key partners (Intel Community) • Develop stakeholder relationships • Expand pool of technical resources • Develop efficient / repeatable processes • Establish TEEP / POA&M • * Also under requirements related

16. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Implied Tasks • Communication, Coordination, Collaboration (C3) • Foster open-collaboration (Intra/Inter-Team) • Establish communication protocol (bi-monthly, monthly, etc) • Intra / Inter-command (various contractors, DoD Labs, etc) • Establish and monitor LNOs & mentors throughout • Establish arbitration process (PM Intel) to resolve [potential] conflict • Shape / influence S&T investments, planning and strategy • Market research; Leverage ongoing RDT&E activities

17. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Implied Tasks cont… • Acquisitions Execution related… • Develop Technology Transition Plan • …efficient, repeatable processes similar to MCPP “Orders Development” & “Transition” • Evaluate solutions, establish transition “criteria” • Define process for inserting emerging technologies • Conduct requirements analysis across the PM (traceability) • ID gaps; pursue them. • Understand/map legacy systems, their applications and TTPs • ID POR (increment, ECP), new start (FUE, UUNS) and map a COA • Develop comprehensive data collection plan to validate FUE

18. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Implied Tasks cont… • Acquisitions Execution cont… • Formalize test bed for insertion of new technologies • ID, develop, evaluate non-material solutions (includingtraining, TTP) • MOA, MOU • Procure & deliver, fully-functional, sustainable, scalable, complete systems capable of integrating into new or existing capability sets • Ensure capabilities are in operational context • Requires facilitating development of non-material solutions: • Training, TTP

19. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Implied Tasks cont… • Fiscal related… • ID available fiscal resources • Offensive vs Defensive • Prepare for budget cuts – link funding to [valid] requirements • Synchronize internal PPB[E] (PM Intel and across Teams) w/ external agencies (ONR) • Shape allocation of resources that meet our goals • Institute deliberate fiscal planning processes & procedures at PM and Team levels • Includes communication protocol • Acquire / Manage funding from POR portfolios into Rapid Pro Team • *** Recommend PM FMA lead

20. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Essential Tasks • (Specified) Meet qualitative & quantitative user needs • Identify/develop, deliver, and sustain leading edge capabilities • (Specified) Pursue innovative technologies w/ emphasis on fully-functional and interoperable technologies • (Implied) Procure & deliver, fully-functional, sustainable, scalable, complete systems capable of integrating into new or existing capability sets

21. RAPID PRO: TASK TRACEABILITY Provide USMC w/ intelligence means to find, fix, kill the enemy Fulfill Intel material & associated requirements for USMC Op For Establish appropriate Gov mechanisms for sensing, processing & dissemination systems Execute available $$ resources Meet cost, schedule, performance guidance established by MCCDC Seek mutually supporting effects for solutions & processes Plan, coordinate, execute full range of programmatic functions Execute & Supervise key functions: Engineering, contracts, fiscal mgmt, logistics Interact with Operational Forces Meet qualitative & quantitative user needs Implement mechanisms for data exposure & discovery; develop dissemination & distribution tech to deliver data to tactical level Develop, deliver, sustain leading edge capabilities Pursue innovative technology Shape existing & emerging capabilities; fulfill Intel “vision” Specified Essential (Msn) Pursue future capabilities in MCISR-E and USMC ISR Roadmap Specified Supporting (Msn) Pursue seamless interop of sensors for x-cue, persistence, redundancy Specified Supported (Intent) Specified Supporting (Intent)

22. TASK TRACEABILITY CONT… Experiment with relevant technologies; lay foundation for future capabilities Develop, deliver, sustain leading edge capabilities Emphasize functional capability areas in MCISR-E: PISR, DCGS, Actionable Intel Pursue innovative technology Seek exercise venues; gather system performance data & user feedback Rapidly deliver innovative technology; enhance existing capabilities Develop stakeholder relationships; expand pool of technical resources Pursue future capabilities in MCISR-E and USMC ISR Roadmap Enable future operating concepts: Enhanced Company Operations supported by Company Level Intel Cell, Force interoperability w/in & across these functional areas; create enterprise architecture where data flows freely & rapidly Emphasize functional capability areas in MCISR-E: PISR, DCGS, Actionable Intel Specified Essential (Msn) Across Intel & Decision Cycles Specified Supporting (Msn) Specified Supported (Intent) Specified Supporting (Intent)

23. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Proposed Mission Statement • On Order, the Rapid Prototyping Team will pursue, identify, assess, develop and rapidly deliver leading edge technologies emphasizing fully-functional and interoperable capabilities that fulfill the spectrum of intelligence requirements IOT meet the qualitative and quantitative user needs that enable Marines to find, fix, or kill the enemy in all operating environments.

24. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Mission Traceability • Rapid Prototyping Proposed Mission • On Order, the Rapid Prototyping Team will pursue, identify, assess, develop and rapidlydeliverleading edge technologies emphasizing fully-functional and interoperable capabilities that fulfill the spectrum of intelligence requirements IOT meet the qualitative and quantitative user needs that enable Marinesto find, fix, or kill the enemy in all operating environments. • PM Intelligence Mission • PM, Intel plans, coordinates, and executes the full range of programmatic functions to fulfill intelligence materiel and associated requirements for Marine Corps operating forces, ensuring all solutions meet cost, schedule, and performance criteria established by Marine Corps Combat Development Command. We aggressively execute available fiscal resources, relentlessly pursue innovative technology, and continuously interact with operating forces, in order to develop, deliver, and sustain capabilities that provide Marines with intelligence means to find, fix, and kill enemy forces in all operating environments.

25. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Restraints • Cannot violate: • DoD 5000; • Statutory/regulatory processes • JCIDS requirements development process

26. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Constraints (we must…) • Fiscal • Execute funding under MIP scrutiny • Meet / Exceed execution thresholds • Requirements • Operate effectively in the absence of appropriate / approved requirements documents • Serve as focal point for all UUNS, UNS, JUONS • Revisit outdated [legacy] requirements • Ensure requirements traceability for all Rapid Pro actions • Optimize commonality among systems; achieve “synoptic” view of battle space • Ensure [potential] solutions are associated w/ viable CONOPS prior to transition

27. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Constraints • Testing, IA, Contracts • Develop ‘gate checks’ to increase efficiency of market research • C&A IOT connect systems to network(s) • Formal Test & Evaluation (T&E) – level TBD (based on ACAT) • ID T&E activities • ID and leverage existing services already accredited and/or on contract (w/ available ceiling and PoP) • Use agile contracting vehicles (multiple classifications) to test, acquire and field emerging capabilities / solutions • Ensure enhanced sustainment packages are available and/or written into SOWs prior to transition

28. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Constraints • Architecture • Reutilize hardware and software modules to the extent possible • Ensure Enterprise level configuration control • Risk • Address risk management (RM) IAW DoD RM strat & policies • An “issue” is present tense – another Team’s challenge • Rapid Pro IDs and mitigates risks, i.e. “future root causes” • Higher Guidance • Cultivate productive relationships w/ those KEY partners who enable success; Limit investments in non-productive relationships

29. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Assumptions • OCO/Supplements (including ISR TF $) will end after FY10 • Core [MIP] Funding will not be affected by upcoming cuts • Existing staff/personnel remain intact • PORs will fund Rapid Pro efforts entirely (or in part) • Erroneous • Rapid Pro Team will play key role in Resetting The Force (RTF); replacements to include new (modernized) equipment

30. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Assumptions cont… • Requirements Traceability Matrix (RTM) effort will reveal gaps (to exploit) AND redundancies (to reduce) • MCCDC will concur w/ Requirements “Pyramid” approach and develop an Actionable Intelligence CDD • An Incremental, Evolutionary Enterprise [PISR] Architecture will [eventually] span BOTH PM Intel & PM IDF&D • USMC will conform (in practice) to a knowledge-based approach to ISR system development (as provided by DoD policy) • That we’ll all have the patience to do this……right.

31. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Resource Shortfalls • Personnel • (1) Info Assurance Manager (IAM) • ID status and work first ___% of emerging solutions IOT reduce C&A timeline for PORs • Interface w/ PM IAM, SIAT, other team IAMs; maintain [holistic] enterprise perspective on C&A status, potential redundancies, etc. • (1) Transition Team Lead (TTL) • Not a collateral duty; dedicated to the receiving TL, PO and staff Training, logistics (fielding, sustainment) IA, contracts. • (-) Reassigning under current Org hinders team’s effectiveness to ID next innovative/emerging tech • (+) SME cell fulfills role? • (1) Logistician / Provisioners (support to TTL) • Interface w/ PORs; establish TAMCN / NSN (accountability, TFSMS, LOGCOM); work initial sustainment plans, field equipment

32. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Resource Shortfalls • Personnel cont… • (1) S/W Engineer • SME to screen, assess, mitigate integration and PDSS risks, verify interoperability, ID “good” components worth keeping (evolutionary) • (1) “S&T” Engineer • Preferred acquisitions / requirements background with familiarity of SATCOM, TENCAP, IA, EW, HUMINT/IMINT/SIGINT/MASINT • Sufficient knowledge on product technologies and design before committing to development/demonstration of new systems • (1) T&E SME • Old model of funding a matrix [someone “on staff”] will not suffice w/ Rapid Pro pace • (1) Warranted Contract Officer (independent) • Experienced, connected, master “Artist” • Access to lightweight, swift, ‘external’ vehicles • (?) LNOs

33. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Resource Shortfalls • Other… • Tools that create and reinforce “effectiveness” • Collaboration: facilitate cross-team and cross-PM communication (inter and intra) to expedite turnaround, increase day-to-day efficiencies • Interim solutions: • Internal Fiscal DB, Collaboration S/W, Sharepoint • PM Roadmap • Synchronized w/ [TBD] Intel Roadmap • ReOrg “Campaigning” (MCCDC, I Dept, MARFORs) • Ex > RadBn Mods  RREP  TPCS  TCAC • Roles & responsibilities, boundaries, procedure for injection, charters that bind us to “our” business and hold us [all] accountable for outcomes

34. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Requests for Information or “Clarification” • What does the PM mean about “quantitative” WRT RPT? • Will RPT serve as a funding pool responding to emerging T/E shortfalls, i.e., AAO increases from OpTempo, RTF? • Roles & responsibilities of Gov FBAs to the PM, TLs, POs? • Ensure effective, efficient employment of subordinate Gov & CTR FBAs • Request PM prioritize funding requirements • Where are your critical “gaps”?

35. RAPID PRO: Team Risks vs. Issues • Risk (defined) • ….A measure of future uncertainties in achieving program performance goals and objectives within defined cost, schedule and performance constraints. • Future root cause (the basic reason for risk) • Probability of future root cause • Consequence of future occurrence • RPT deals w/ Risks • Issue (defined) • ….A root cause described in the past tense (it’s already occurred, and hence, is an issue that needs to be resolved; not a risk) • STI & EM Teams deal w/ Issues (and Risks) • RPT attempts to mitigate/minimize those Risks WRT new technologies

36. RAPID PRO: Risks • Resistance to inter-team “business” procedures • Sensitivities: Budget, people, time • Mitigation: Rapid Pro is “front-end” until [defined] transition point • Too Much, Too Soon • Low profile w/ top cover • Mitigation: Start small, think BIG, work incrementally (Evolutionary); ensure “contagious successes” • Redundancy Perception • NDIA, PISR CBA (*MCCDC), RPT “Architecture” Development (MCDC), Common Sensor Panel (Dahlgren), Joint PISR ICD, SCI CBA • Mitigation: Resist urge to prematurely ‘advertise’, communicate intent to stakeholders, implant competent LNOs • [New system] delivery delays will incur more investments in legacy systems IOT keep them relevant/operational until replacements arrive

37. RAPID PRO: Top 10 Indicators we’re going to Screw-Up Complex Systems Acquisitions 10. Assume somebody understands and will make it work 9. Assume there’s a successful process in place 8. Assume that really precise requirements turn into successful systems and don’t think through and prioritize essential qualities 7. Assume that success is so frequent you’re not really in mortal danger 6. Assume you can just use existing components and put them together in a new way 5. Trust a contractor to do it right 4. Don’t recognize that new systems are much riskier than yet another product variant from an established product line architecture 3. Don’t have a chief architect with real responsibility and power who has a credible vision that others can really understand 2. Don’t bother to demand that the process is really credible to the key participants 1. Don’t employ an incremental, evolutionary approach Dr Rick Hayes-Roth, NPS

38. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Why Architecture? “Without an enterprise-level architecture and an ongoing, comprehensive data-driven analysis of the most efficient solutions, it is not clear how DoD can be assured that it is developing and fielding the ISR capabilities that most efficiently and effectively fill gaps and reduce redundancies.” GAO: ISR Preliminary Observations on DoD’s Approach to Managing Requirements for New Systems…. GAO-07-596T

39. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Why Architecture? • Define and Develop the “value-delivery chain” • Better speed to better capability • “Operationalize” S&T efforts • Make ‘bleeding edge’ the ‘state of practice’ • Operationally describe “semantic interoperability” • Need Information Exchange Model • Accelerate collaboration of Intelligence Data • Rich Semantic Model capable of tracking events • Use Technology like a “Firestorm” • Deliver synoptic view of the battlespace to Battlefield Commanders • Systems that complement one another • Ensure “repeatability”

40. RAPID PRO: Architecture Stakeholders Universities / Industry TNT Academia Academia • Quarterly Test-bed • Integration across • platforms, domains Academia Academic Collaborative “Hub” C4T NPS SOCOM Lead Architect TNT Sponsor ONR ITSFAC MCSC Lead S&T - Legacy Program Management - System Integrators Lead Manager Dahlgren Common SensorPanel MCCDC LANL Lead WAAS& Terrest Sensor S/W Integration Lead Requirements

41. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Team Intent • Our Mission requires taking bold action where others have failed. • We need acquisitions “Force Multipliers.” • Specifically, we should: • Enable interoperability of future [PM Intel] capabilities • Reduce [procurement] redundancies • Anticipate, ID and exploit capabilities gaps • Provide a basis for determining ‘best value’ mix of present and future capabilities WRT their place in a PISR architecture • Facilitate development of that PISR architecture • * Empower & engage our teammates in developing AND documenting high-impact processes they believe in * Dr Rick Hayes-Roth, NPS

42. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Team Intent cont… • Specifically, we should: • * Focus on services that matter; deliver valued information at the right time • * Seize and invest in Order of Magnitude improvements • * Aggressively foster Evolution • Discard failure and/or waste; reinforce success • Improve faster than your competitors • * Give our customer(s) a better experience • * Measure outcomes including the processes that delivered them • Measure value per cost (ROI) • Measure risk per reward & opportunity • Let the customer measure • Adjust policies based on measured outcomes * Dr Rick Hayes-Roth, NPS

43. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Team Intent cont… • Endstate: • An agile, scalable sub-organization capable of dynamically responding to emergent requirements that balance intelligence “ownership” vs. “stewardship.” Specifically, we should seek material and non-material solutions that serve a traditional [doctrinal] intelligence cycle while simultaneously delivering valuable information at the right time to achieve the right ‘effects.’ • We must enable our war-fighters with “knowledge at the point of action.”

44. RAPID PRO: MISSION ANALYSIS Annual Execution Plan “TEEP for Team” Oct-Dec 2009 Jan-Mar 2010 Apr-June 2010 Jul-Sept 2010 • RTM Draft • PISR Arch SOW to NPS • TNT exposure [RadBn Mods] • Spend Plans • Draft “Gate-checks” for Tech Assessment • RTM refined • Est & Define RPT business processes • Draft Tech Trans Plan • Stabilize staff; Est LNO/Comm & Collab plan • Define sensor data standards • Tech Trans refined (final) • Refine LNO/Comm plan between Teams • Execute all FY10 funding • Integrate PISR CDD (MCCDC) • PISR Arch Prototype delivered • EC10 demo PM Intel PISR Integration • Develop PISR Architecture in conjunction w/ partners (NPS, etc) • Screen relevant, credible technologies that fulfill PM Intel “Gaps” • Execute Funding IAW MIP thresholds