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Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Development in China. Professor Shujie Yao and Dr Dan Luo School of Contemporary Chinese studies University of Nottingham. Outline. Can China sustain its fast growth? What is the implication on environment? Energy consumption & growth

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energy efficiency and sustainable development in china

Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Development in China

Professor Shujie Yao and Dr Dan Luo

School of Contemporary Chinese studies

University of Nottingham

outline
Outline
  • Can China sustain its fast growth?
  • What is the implication on environment?
  • Energy consumption & growth
  • Structural changes
  • Factors for high energy demand and low energy efficiency
  • Conclusions and policies
background
Background
  • Sustainable development

----“development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generation to meet their own needs”.

  • Economic growth and environment

-- Past: Western Industrial Revolution: fossil fuels  pollution  global warming, ocean acidification, loss of tropical forests and water supply shortage

-- Present: Emerging economies: emissions from BRICs

current situation in china
Current situation in China
  • Pressure: reducing CO2/GDP by 40-45%, 2005-20
  • Internal challenges

Highly energy-intensive growth path

Massive consumption: 3.2 bil.TCEin 2010, 20% of world total, >US, largest energy consumer

Massive imports: oil (2010) 239 mil tons, 53% of total demand. By 2030, import dependency, 80% of oil, 10-20% of coal  energy security problems

Severe environmental pollution.

chinese government policy
Chinese government policy
  • 11thFYP (2006-10): efficiency 20%, or 3.7%/year
  • 12thFYP (2011-15): efficiency by another 16-17%

However, current trend not promising due to

Poor industrial structure and lack of innovation

growth and energy challenge i
Growth and Energy: Challenge I
  • Limited domestic reserves and low per capita supply

-- Energy reserves << demand, esp. oil  energy security;

-- Per capita consumption low but aggregate demand massive

a) Rapid urbanization and industrialization

b) Changing consumption of people due to rising income

slide10

Growth and Energy: Challenge II

  • Over-dependency on coal GHG emission

Composition of China’s energy consumption, 1978-2009

slide12

Growth and Energy: Challenge III

  • Fast growth of energy demand and efficiency

-- Fast economic growth with fast energy growth

-- Low efficiency in China: 4.5 times energy and 3.8 times electricity for same amount of GDP compared to OECD

-- Energy efficiency of China significantly lower than India and Brazil.

slide16

High demand/low efficiency

of energy in China: Factor I

Economic and industrial structure: GDP dominated by industry

fast expansion of 8 energy intensive sub industries
Fast expansion of 8 energy intensive sub-industries
  • Industrial production and energy consumption of eight key industries to total
slide23

High demand/low efficiency of energy in ChinaFactor III: Industry relocation coastalto inlandEnergy production/consumption by region, 1990-09

conclusion policy implications
Conclusion & policy implications

Factors for China’s rising energy consumption

policy recommendations
Policy recommendations
  • Structure transformation, reducing reliance on heavy industry and polluting industries
  • Reducing dependency on exports of polluting goods
  • Price reforms
  • Alternative energy
  • Technology and innovation
  • Creating a self-enforcing endogenous growth model
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