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Contraction and Convergence. An Introduction. Content. History Theory Application. History. History.
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Contraction and Convergence An Introduction
Content • History • Theory • Application
History • 1992: The UNFCCC's call for an equitable distribution of carbon emission rights among individual states or groups of states, in proportion to their population, with planned progress towards that objective by an agreed date • Between 1992 and 1995, at the request of the IPCC, the Global Commons Institute (GCI) discovered and presented an analysis on the growing trend of 'Expansion and Divergence‘ • Contraction and Convergence was developed by the GCI to counteract the negative effects of the trend of expansion and divergence. • Mostly popular for developing countries, but not entirely • Cap and Share idea...
Definition • Contraction and Convergence: • it defines emission quotas on the basis of a convergence in per capita emissions, • under a contracting global greenhouse gas emission profile • all countries participate with emission endowments converging to equal per capita levels over time. • combines the egalitarian and acquired rights approaches, leaving aside the responsibility and capability principles
How does it work? 1 • Boundary conditions: • Define the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere acceptable • Annual fall of global emissions calculated - • Pathway until „safe” level of atmospehric concentration is reached
How does it work? 2 • Convergence: • How the entitlements to emit carbon are distributed between the countries of the world: • When convergence of all per capita emissions reached the same level, they start to contract – decrease • Trading of emission endowments is possible • Cut off date in population numbers • „Hot air” is part of the system Equal per capita emissons globally Current emissions
Variables • Stringency of the climate target: • Pre-agreed global concentration determined to be safe • Fall rate of emissions • Convergence date • Cut off date of population numbers
To Do list: • Recognise the prevention of dangerous climate change as an essential global security interest • Agree danger indicators • Decide CO2 concentration target and timetable • Decide CO2 concentration target and timetable • Set annual global CO2 emissions budgets according to a "contraction" formula • Calculate relative national shares of the global budget according to a "convergence" formula • Allocate national CO2 emissions quotas • Establish criteria and mechanisms for quota management • Set up a system for emissions trading • Require International Airline and Shipping companies to purchase CO2 emission quotas • Devise potential sanctions, penalties, and compensation!!!
Contraction & Convergence 2050 Per Capita Emissions 6 4 Rest of World India 2 China Annex 1 (non-OECD) 0 OECD minus USA USA 10Gtc Gross Emissions 5Gtc 2200 1800 1900 2000 2100 GCI www.gci.org.uk
Contraction & Convergence 2100 Per Capita Emissions 6 4 Rest of World India 2 China Annex 1 (non-OECD) 0 OECD minus USA USA 10Gtc Gross Emissions 5Gtc 2200 1800 1900 2000 2100 GCI www.gci.org.uk
Contraction & Convergence i.e. Convergence by 2100 CO2 Non Annex One CO2 Annex One CO2 Annex One BAU 10Gtc Gtc 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 GCI www.gci.org.uk
Contraction & Convergence i.e. Convergence by 2020 CO2 Non Annex One CO2 Non Annex One CO2 Annex One BAU 10Gtc Gtc 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 GCI www.gci.org.uk
Contraction & Convergence i.e. Convergence by 2020 30Gtc CO2 Non Annex One CO2 Negotiated Area 20Gtc CO2 Annex One BAU 10Gtc Gtc 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 GCI www.gci.org.uk
Contraction & Convergence 30Gtc Efficiency Net Zero CO2 Renewables CO2 Non Annex One CO2 Traded Area 20Gtc CO2 Annex One BAU 10Gtc Gtc 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 GCI www.gci.org.uk
Whichcontraction budget? • The budget should be 'risk-averse‘ • Agree on danger indicators • Factrong in long term stabilisation • Necessity: 350/450 ppmv – „political reality”: 550 ppmv • Which convergencedate? • Sooner the better, but „political reality”
