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Welcome to Marketworx. Shaun van den Berg Head of Client Education at PSG Online. Tuesday, 21 August 2012. Marketworx :. Technical Analysis & Trading. Tuesday, 21 August 2012. Marketworx Agenda. Investor. Make Money. Trader. SSF. Equities. CFD. CFD Product Description.

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welcome to marketworx
Welcome to Marketworx

Shaun van den Berg

Head of Client Education at PSG Online

Tuesday, 21 August 2012

marketworx
Marketworx:

Technical Analysis & Trading

Tuesday, 21 August 2012

marketworx agenda
Marketworx Agenda

Investor

Make

Money

Trader

SSF

Equities

CFD

cfd product description
CFD Product Description

Derivative - A contract whose value depends on (or derives from) the value of an underlying share e.g. share – ANG, BIL, SOL

Go ‘Long’ & ‘Short’ with CFD’s on Top 100 JSE listed shares

  • Margin deposit requirements
    • 15% Top 40 shares / 17.5% on next 60 shares

Variation margin required for adverse share price movement.

Brokerage = 0.4% per transaction

Breakeven = 0.92% (VAT included)

Zero STT

  • Financing at competitive rates:
    • Current borrowing rate 7.00% (± Prime – 2%)

Minimum Exposure per trade of R25 000 (R4 500 margin)

top 100 shares cfd margin
Top 100 Shares: CFD Margin

15% Top 40

17.5% Next 60

List reset after each Quarterly futures Close out

cfd long short positions
You pay a script lending fee of 1.5% p.a. (Min R250)

Receive interest at SAFEX - 2 % p.a.

The holder is liable for the dividend

Dividend is not earned tax free as a CFD is a derivative contract

In the case of a short CFD, a holder of a short contract will have to pay the dividend to the issuer

CFD Long & Short Positions
  • Pay interest at SAFEX + 2 % p.a. (± Prime 2%)
  • The holder will receive a synthetic dividend
    • Dividend is not earned tax free as a CFD is a derivative contract
    • In the case of a Long CFD, a holder of a long contract will be paid an amount equal to the dividend by issuer.
    • This is seen as an income and is subject to tax
cfd order book
CFD Order Book

Buy 100 Anglo shares @ R339.05

Exposure = R33 905.00

15% Margin = R5 085.75

R305.15

100 Anglo shares = R33 905.00

0.4% Brokerage = R135.62

14% VAT = R18.99

Total = R154.61

R33 905 x 7.0% = R2373.35/365 = R6.50

pro s con s of cfd trading
Advantages

Disadvantages

Gearing & Risk

No voting rights

Pro’s & Con’s of CFD Trading
  • Low trading costs
  • No expiry date
  • Hedge your current portfolio?
  • All the benefits
what are ssfs
What are SSFs?

A standardised contract.

Of a standard quantity (100) of a specific underlying listed share

Requires a fixed margin deposit to open a position (around 15% of the total value).

Expires on a predetermined future date: Third Thursday of every March, June, September & December.

Gives the owner the right to close the contract at a price agreed when entering the contract, including all relevant dividends & interest.

SSFs are listed on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), a subsidiary of the JSE.

  • SSF contracts equate to100 shares of the underlying instrument.
  • SSFs are created at the close of trading.
  • All unmatched SSF orders expire at the end of the trading day.
  • All partially matched orders will be cancelled at the end of the day.
comparable to equities
Comparable to Equities

INVESTOR A (Share Trader)

INVESTOR B (SSFs Trader)

Confident that Sasol shares will increase.

Confident that Sasol shares will increase.

She has R35 000 which she can invest.

Sasol’s share price is R350,therefore she buys 1 contract.

Sasol’s share price is R350,therefore she buys 100 shares.

The initial margin set by the broker is R6 000 which is paid by the buyer.

3 months later the price has increased by 10% so she sells her shares to make a R3 500 profit.

After 3 months the price has increased by 10% & the investor closes out his position & sells out of theSasol SSF contract.

Her return on her investment is 10%.

His profit is R3 500but his return on his investment is 58%.

comparison between ssfs cfds
SSF

CFD

Unregulated

Trades OTC

No Expiry Date

Principle amount could change

Interest fluctuates daily

Retail interest rates

No best execution obligation

Captive markets

Opaque

Not guaranteed by SAFCOM

Manufactured dividends

Never physical delivered

Comparison between SSFs &CFDs
  • Regulated by JSE/FSB
  • Exchanged traded product
  • Expiry Date= Rollover costs
  • Set principle amount
  • Interest agreed upfront
  • Wholesale interest rates
  • Best execution
  • Free markets
  • Transparent
  • Guaranteed by SAFCOM
  • No dividend paid/received
  • Fungible financial instrument
  • Can take physical delivery
ssf margin
SSF Margin

Initial margin

per

contract

Top 100 Shares

ALSI & ALMI

Copper, Gold, Platinum, Silver & WTI Crude Oil

ssf simulator ssfsm
SSF Simulator (SSFSM)

Step 1

Select

SSFSM

Step 3

Click Reset

Simulator

Step 2

Check R100 000

ssf simulator alsi
SSF Simulator (ALSI)

ALSI – Most popular

Top 40 Shares

Liquid, Cheap,

Tight Spreads

Long & Short

ssf simulator alsi1
SSF Simulator (ALSI)

19 point spread = R10 x 19 points = R190

new order alsi buy
New Order (ALSI Buy)

Example 1:

Buy (Long)

1 contract

@ 30 050

Step 1

Select

Direction

Step 4

Click Submit

Order

Step 3 Enter

Points

Step 2 Enter

Contracts

trade history alsi buy
Trade History (ALSI Buy)

Select Trade History

Margin Movement

Margin = R27 450

Exposure = R274 500

Cost R25 per contract

R10 per point

100 points move = R1000

financial history alsi buy
Financial History (ALSI Buy)

Select Financial History

Margin & Brokerage

R25

new order alsi sell
New Order (ALSI Sell)

Sell (Long Close)

Moves up to 30 350

= 300 points move x R10 = R3 000

Step 1

Select

Direction

Step 4

Click Submit

Order

Step 2 Enter

Contracts

Step 3 Enter

Points

trades history alsi sell
Trades History (ALSI Sell)

Profit or Loss

Margin Returned

financial history alsi sell
Financial History (ALSI Sell)

Select Financial History

ssf simulator portfolio
SSF Simulator - Portfolio

Select Portfolio

Example 2:

Buy (Long) @ 30 050

Moves down to 29 921

= 129 points move x R10 = R1 290 loss

(Margin Call)

Example 3:

Sell (Short) @ 30 050

Moves down to 29 689

= 361 points move x R10 = R3 610

ssf simulator alsi2
SSF Simulator (ALSI)

65 point spread = R1 x 65 points = R65

Margin = R2745

Exposure = R27 450

Cost R5 per contract

R1 per point

100 points move = R100

sab miller sab
SAB Miller (SAB)

Target Price = R325 + R22 = R347

Stop @ R320

Buy (Open) SABSEP12

contract

@ R325.00

position size margin ssf
Position Size & Margin (SSF)
  • You have R100 000 in your SSF account
  • You are willing to risk 2% of your capital = R2 000
  • You decide to buy SAB Miller (SAB) at R325.00
  • You set a stop loss @ R320.00
    • R325.00 – R320.00 = R5.00
    • Take R2 000 & divide it by the R5.00 per share that you are risking (R2000 / R5.00)
  • Your position size = you can buy 400 shares

(400 shares = 4 contracts)

  • The SSF initial margin required per contract is R2 625
  • R2 625 x 4 contracts = R10 500 initial margin
    • 4 x 100 x R325.00 = R130 000 exposure
new order sab buy
New Order (SAB Buy)

Step 1

Select

Direction

Step 4

Click Submit

Order

Step 2 Enter

Contracts

Step 3 Enter

cents

position size margin ssf1
Position Size & Margin (SSF)
  • Initial Margin = R10 500
    • R2 625 x 4 contracts
  • Exposure = R130 000
    • 4 contracts x 100 shares x R325.00
  • Brokerage cost on Open = R671
    • R130 000 exposure x 0.47% = R611+ R60
  • Target Price (TP) = R347
    • R325 + R22
  • Reward = R8 800
    • R22 x 4 contracts x 100 shares
  • Risk = R2000
    • 4 contracts x 100 x R5
  • Risk : Reward Ratio = 1:4.4
    • R2 000 / R8 800
  • Brokerage cost on Close= R652.36
    • R138 800 exposure x 0.47%
sab miller sab1
SAB Miller (SAB)

32500c + 2200c = 34700c

summary ssf simulator
Summary: SSF Simulator
  • Trading the ALSI
    • Most popular instrument
    • Top 40 Shares
    • Liquidity (± 40 000 contracts per day)
    • Cheap (R25 per leg)
    • Tight Spreads
    • Long & Short
  • Trading Equity SSF
    • Long & Short
    • Trade spot market
    • Cheap (0.47% inclusive per leg)
marketworx agenda1
Marketworx Agenda

Investor

Make

Money

WEN Charting

Technical

Analysis

Trader

SSF

Equities

CFD

share market analysis
Share Market Analysis

Share Market

Analysis

Technical

Analysis

Fundamental

Analysis

Price

Macro

Fundamentals

Micro

Fundamentals

Volume

technical analysis
Technical Analysis

Technical

Analysis

Fundamentals

Price

Volume

Supply & Demand

Trends

Patterns

market psychology
Market Psychology

1st Stage

Things

would not

always be rosy

3rd Stage

Things

will get

better

forever

2nd Stage

Things are

deteriorating

2nd Stage

Improvement

Is actually

underway

3rd Stage

Things

can only get

worse

1st Stage

Things are getting better

technical analys is
Secondary Indicators

Technical Oscillators

Stochastic Indicator

MACD Indicator

Volume Analysis

OBV Indicator

Relative Strength Analysis

Relative to Sector

Relative to JSE Overall

Technical Analysis
  • Price Charts
    • Closing Line Charts
    • Bar Charts
    • Bar Volume Charts
    • Candlestick Charts
  • Moving Averages
    • 200-day EMA
    • 50-day EMA
  • Breakout Trading
    • Cycle & Trend Analysis
    • Support & Resistance
    • Trend Lines
    • Continuation Patterns
    • Reversal Chart Patterns
price charts bar chart
Price Charts: Bar Chart

High

Close

Open

Low

technical analysis checklist
Technical Analysis Checklist

Trending(Up/ Down)

Cycles Support & Resistance Moving Averages

Trend Lines

Overbought/Oversold

Stochastic / MACD

OBV

Outperformance/Underperformance

Relative StrengthAnalysis

trends cycles
Trends & Cycles

Bull

Bear

Corrections

Rallies

Sideways

trends cycles1
Trends & Cycles

Bearish Trend

Bullish Trend

Bullish Trend

market cycles bull
Market Cycles - Bull

Higher Highs, Higher Lows

market cycles bear
Market Cycles - Bear

Lower Highs, Lower Lows

support resistance
Support & Resistance

Resistance

Resistance

Resistance

Resistance

Support

Support

Resistance

Resistance

Support

Support

Support

Resistance

Resistance

Support

Support

Support

Support & Resistance levels highlight possible “turning points”

support resistance1
Support & Resistance
  • The more times a share price has touched these areas, the more valid these levels are &themore important they become.
  • The longer these support & resistance levels have been in play, the better the outcome when the share price finally breaks out.
support resistance bull
Support & Resistance - Bull

Resistance

Support

Support

Support

Resistance

Resistance/Support

support resistance bear
Support & Resistance - Bear

Resistance/Support

Support

Support

Support

Resistance/ Support

Support

Resistance

Resistance

trend lines
Trend Lines

As long as the price stays above/ below the Support or Resistance lines, the trend is either bullish or bearish

Resistance

Trend Line

Support

Trend Line

Resistance

Trend Line

Support

Trend Line

trend lines bull
Trend Lines - Bull

Resistance

Resistance

Support

Resistance Trend Line

Support Trend Line

Support Trend Line

trend lines bear
Trend Lines - Bear

Support Trend Line

SupportTrend Line

ResistanceTrendLine

Support Trend Line

SupportTrend Line

ResistanceTrendLine

ResistanceTrendLine

ResistanceTrendLine

entry points
Entry Points
  • Once prices are set toclose above a resistancelevel, a trader will establish a bullish position.
  • When prices are set to close below a supportlevel, a trader will take on a bearish position.
exit points
Exit Points
  • How long am I planning on being in this trade? (Depends on what type of trader you are: Position, Swing or Day Trader)
  • How much risk am I willing to take?
    • Setting near-term profit targets that execute at opportune times to maximize profits.
    • Here are some common execution points:
      • Retracement levels.
      • Trend line breaks (Support & Resistance).
      • Any other technical points.
    • Developing solid stop-loss points that immediately get rid of holdings that do not perform.
    • Creating exit strategies based on technical factors affecting the short-term.
exit points1
Exit Points
  • Where do I want to get out?
    • Many people become irrationally attached to their holdings & hold these equities when the underlying fundamentals of the trade have changed
    • Traders sometimes worry & sell their holdings even when there has been no change in underlying fundamentals.
  • Both of these situations can lead to losses &missed profit opportunities.
    • Set a point at which you will sell takes the emotion out of trading.
    • The exit point itself should be set at a critical price level, i.e. technical points e.g. Retracement levels
trading strategies
Trading Strategies

Investor

Make

Money

WEN Charting

Technical

Analysis

Break-out

Trading

Trader

SSF

Equities

CFD

breakout trading the steps
Identify the candidate

Wait for the breakout

Set a reasonable price objective

Allow the share to retest

Know when your trade has failed

Exit at your price target (TP)

Be patient

Breakout Trading: The Steps
breakout trading bidvest 1
Breakout Trading: Bidvest #1

137 + 19 = 156 TP

Resistance

Support

118 to 137 = 19

breakout trading bidvest 2
Breakout Trading: Bidvest #2

Resistance

Support

Resistance / Support

Support

breakout trading astral
Breakout Trading: Astral

Resistance

Support

Resistance / Support

Support

breakout trading a v i 1
Breakout Trading: A V I #1

3100 to 3440 = 340

Resistance

Resistance

Support

breakout trading a v i 2
Breakout Trading: A V I #2

3440 + 340 = 3780 TP

breakout trading conclusion
Breakout Trading: Conclusion
  • Breakout trading welcomes volatility.
  • The volatility experienced after a breakout is likely to generate emotionbecause prices are moving quickly & in a volatile fashion.
  • Using the steps & information covered will help you define a trading plan that, when executed properly, can offer great returns & manageable risk.
secondary technical indicators
Secondary Technical Indicators

MACD indicator

Stochastic indicator

Volume Analysis

OBV indicator

Relative Strength Analysis

Relative Strength indicator

Secondary Technical Indicators

It must be remembered that no indicator should be used alone.

stochastic indicator
Stochastic Indicator

Stochastic = Close - Low x 100%

High - Low

14 = Hi = 10014

14 = Lo = 014

Sell Zone

Sell

Sell

Sell

Buy Zone

Buy

stochastic indicator1
Stochastic Indicator

Bullish Divergence

macd indicator ob os
MACD Indicator (OB/OS)

Overbought

Oversold

macd divergence
MACD – Divergence

Bullish Divergence

volume analysis1
Volume Analysis

Indecisive

Market Bottoms

Consolidation

Low volumes

Low volumes

Market Tops

New Trend

High volumes

High volumes

slide88

Relative Strength Indicator

Data 1 = MTNData 2 = JSE Overall Index

slide89

Relative Strength Indicator

Data 1 = MTNData 2 = Vodacom

slide90

Relative Strength Indicator

Data 1 = VodacomData 2 = JSE Overall Index

make quick decisions
Make Quick Decisions

WATCH

BUY

SELL

HOLD

creating a watch list of winners
Creating a Watch List of Winners

Fundamentals = PSG Online website

Technicals = Wen Charting*

summary technical analysis
Secondary Indicators

Technical Oscillators

Stochastic

MACD

Volume Analysis

On Balance Volume

Relative Strength Analysis

Summary: Technical Analysis
  • Price Charts
    • Closing Line Charts
    • Bar Charts
    • Bar Volume Charts
    • Candlestick Charts
  • Breakout Trading
    • Support & Resistance
    • Trend Lines
    • Continuation Patterns
    • Reversal Chart Patterns
slide99

“Trading provides one of the last great frontiers of opportunity in our economy. It is one of the very few ways in which an individual can start with a relatively small bankroll and actually become a multi-millionaire” Jack D Schwager

The Trading Plan

the trading plan1
The Trading Plan
  • Know Yourself, Know Your Purpose
  • Trading Goals
  • Markets, Instruments & Timeframes
  • Tools of the Trade
  • Before the Market Opens …
  • Risk & Money Management
  • Exit Strategy
  • Trade Strategies, Setups & Entries
  • After the market closes …
  • Discipline
  • Golden Trading Rules …
investor matrix
Investor Matrix

Prudent

Aggressive

High

REWARD

Conservative

Speculative

Low

Low

High

RISK

who needs a trading plan

If you have achieved this:

Refresher course

Open your eyes to new aspects of trading that can improve your profitability

Consistently profitable

Who needs a Trading Plan?
  • Unless you are consistently profitable trader over a sufficient length of time to encompass a number of different market conditions – then YOU need a trading plan!
what will the trading plan do
What will the Trading Plan Do?
  • Makes the act of trading simpler
  • Limits your opportunity to make bad trades
  • It will prevent psychological issues
  • Act like a roadmap / Personal GPS
    • Either something in the trading plan is not working
    • You are not adhering to the trading plan
  • Take away much of the decision making
    • Emotional & irrational decisions
  • Enable you to trade outside comfort zone
    • Prevent letting losses run & cutting profits short
  • Instill a large measure of discipline
know yourself know your purpose
Know Yourself, Know Your Purpose
  • Understand your psyche & sentiment
  • Decide what you want to achieve, ask why & how trading is going to provide it?
  • Why do you want to be a trader?
  • What sort of trader are you?
  • What are your strengths & weaknesses?
  • Are you in the right frame of mind to trade?
  • What are your income targets?
trading goals
Trading Goals
  • Setting goals are essential
    • Beacon to work towards
    • Track progress
    • Motivation required
  • Define goals in terms of your development as a proficient trader
    • Annual Trading Goals
    • Monthly Trading Goals
    • Weekly Trading Goals
    • Daily Trading Goals
markets instruments timeframes
Markets, Instruments & Timeframes
  • Decide which markets will you trade?
  • Which instruments will you trade?
    • Basket of shares / whole market?
    • SSFs / CFDs – Top 40 / Mid Caps?
    • Currency Futures – Currency pairs?
  • Which timeframes will you trade?
    • Day Trader – Minutes & Hours?
    • Swing Trader – Days & Weeks?
    • Position Trader – Months & Years?
tools of the trade
Tools of the Trade
  • What financial vehicle will you use to trade?
    • Equities, Warrants, CFDs & SSFs?
  • What broker & trading platform will you use?
  • What Live Prices are you going to use?
  • Which charting software will you use?
before the market opens
Before the Market Opens …
  • What is your daily pre-market routine?
    • Have you analysed yesterday’s trades?
    • Do you have any positions open?
  • What are the general market conditions?
    • What will you do today – hour by hour?
  • Which instruments are on your watch list?
risk management
General Risk Management

Specific Risk Management

What is the probability of a successful trade?

What is the Risk-Reward ratio?

What is your risk per trade?

Where will you place your stop loss order?

When will stop trading?

Risk Management
  • What is your attitude towards risk?
  • What is the overall market risk?
  • What is the sector risk?
  • What is the broker & hardware risk?
  • What is the strategy risk?
money management
General Money Management

Specific Money Management

Will you lock in profits?

How will you determine your position size?

Money Management
  • Large draw downs & profits
  • What will you do?
  • Which money management approaches will you utilise?
exit strategy
Exit Strategy
  • Losing trades
    • Will you exit before your stop is hit?
    • Which signals will see you exit early?
  • Winning trades
    • Which signals will see you exit completely?
    • Which signals will see you close half?
    • Which signals will see you close the remainder?
trade strategies setups entries
Trade Strategies, Setups & Entries
  • Which strategies will you trade?
  • What are your trade setups?
  • How will you find your setups?
  • Which signals will trigger your entry?
after the market closes
After the market closes …
  • Have you recorded today’s trades?
  • Did you execute your trades according to your trading plan?
  • Have you completed your trading journal?
discipline
Discipline
  • Back test or forward test?
  • What are your promises to yourself?
    • What questions do you ask after a winning trade?
    • What questions do you ask after a losing trade?
  • What steps do you take to learn more about trading?
golden trading rules
Golden Trading Rules
  • Protect & preserve capital!
  • Always set a stop loss, always!
  • Cut your losses short – Let your profits run!
  • Never chase your losses, ever!
  • Never average down, ever!
  • Trade what you see – Not what you think!
  • Keep excellent records!
  • Maintain discipline!
  • Keep it simple!
  • Plan the Trade – Trade the Plan!
slide117

“While a trading plan cannot predict the future, it can lay down how you react to the possible outcomes. This is why a trading plan is essential. It is a list of strategic responses to events beyond your control. You control the only thing you can control – YOURSELF!”

The 3 M’s - Mindset

Alpesh B. Patel [Author of the book “Trading Online”]

the 3 m s mindset
The 3 M’s - Mindset
  • Attitude - How you react
  • Self Confidence - Belief in yourself
  • Objectivity - Increase impartiality
  • Patience - Watching & waiting
  • Discipline - Stick to your plan
slide119

"The longer I live the more convinced I become that life is 10% what happens to us and 90% how we respond to it.”…Charles Swindoll

The 3 M’s - Mindset

the 3 m s mindset1
The 3 M’s – Mindset

Greed

Fear

Caution

Moderation

Greed

Fear

slide121

"The most important thing is money management, money management, money management. Anybody who is successful will tell you the same thing.“ Marty Schwartz

The 3 M’s - Money Management

do not focus on making money focus on protecting what you have p aul tudor jones
"Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.” Paul Tudor Jones

The 3 M’s - Money Management

slide123

The 3 M’s - Money Management

  • Capital allocation (Position sizing)
    • For each trade, how much capital do we commit?
    • Trade with 80%- 90% of total capital
      • Earn interest
      • Variation Margin – Margin Calls
    • Position Size - Number of Contracts/ Shares
  • Setting stop losses (Technical stop)
    • For each trade, where do we place our stops?
      • Support & Resistance
position size margin ssf2
Position Size & Margin (SSF)
  • You have R100 000 in your SSF account
  • You decide to buy ABSA at R157.00.
  • You set a stop @ R149.00.
      • R157.00 – R149.00 = R8.00
  • You are willing to risk 2% of your capital = R2000.
  • Take R2000 & divide it by the R8.00 per share that you are risking
  • Your position size = you can buy 250 shares
    • (R2000 / R8.00)
  • The SSF initial margin required is R1725.00
    • 250 shares = 2 contracts = R1725 x 2 = R3450.00
    • Exposure = 2 x 100 x R157.00 = R31 400.00
position size margin ssf3
Position Size & Margin (SSF)
  • Initial Margin = R3450
    • R1725 x 2 contracts
  • Exposure = R31 400
    • 2 contracts x 100 shares x R157.00
  • Brokerage cost = R207.58
    • R31 400 exposure x 0.47% = R147.58 + R60
  • Target Price = R172.00
    • R160 + R12
  • Reward = R2 400
    • R12 x 2 contracts x 100 shares
  • Risk = R1600
    • 2 contracts x 100 x R8
  • Risk : Reward Ratio = 1:1.5
    • R1600 / R2 400
step 1 setup price trigger
Step 1: Setup Price (Trigger)

Select

Price Watch

Enter

Technical

Price

Select “Below” for Longs

step 2 setup stop order bullet
Step 2: Setup Stop Order (Bullet)

Select

StopOrder

Enter

Quantity

Select “Sell”

Enter

Worse-case scenario price

manage risk
Manage Risk

Big Profit

Small Profit

Break Even

Small Loss

Big Loss

X

many know few do justin cohen
“Many know, few do” Justin Cohen

Marketworx

summary
Summary
  • Five Steps to Choosing your Shares
    • Narrow down the choice (Watchlists)
    • Find Undervalued, Profitable & Safe shares
    • Find Trending, Oversold & Outperforming shares
    • Remember risk management
    • Start trading
conclusion
Have you learnt how to “Make Money?”

Feedback Forms

Link to Marketworx presentations

Will be available soon!

Open a Trading Account with PSG Online

Online Trading Course

Equity & ALSI & ALMI Simulator

Research Tools

DataShare Download @R169 p/m

Software is FREE!

Good Luck & Happy Trading!

Conclusion
thank you
Thank You

Contact Us

[email protected]

(011) 996 5200

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