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Stopping sooner or starting later? Fertility decline in Uzbekistan

Stopping sooner or starting later? Fertility decline in Uzbekistan. David Clifford Social Statistics, University of Southampton. Background: post-Soviet fertility change. Context crucial to an understanding of fertility change (Mason 1997) Break-up of Soviet Union in 1991

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Stopping sooner or starting later? Fertility decline in Uzbekistan

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  1. Stopping sooner or starting later? Fertility decline in Uzbekistan David Clifford Social Statistics, University of Southampton

  2. Background: post-Soviet fertility change • Context crucial to an understanding of fertility change (Mason 1997) • Break-up of Soviet Union in 1991 • Dramatic social, political and economic changes • Countries of FSU - ‘rich material’ for examining the impact of these changes on fertility behaviour (Agadjanian 1999:426)

  3. Background: ex-Soviet states of Central Asia • ‘neglected’ in fertility transition literature (Barbieri et al. 1996:69, Agadjanian 1999)

  4. Uzbekistan’s fertility decline • Total Fertility Rate: • 5.7 mid-1970s • 3.3 in 1994-1996 • 2.9 in 2000-2002 (Kuzibaeva 2001, Karimov et al. 1997, Kamilov et al. 2004) • 4.07 in 1990 • 2.36 in 2003 (UNICEF TransMONEE)

  5. Framework: understanding fertility decline • Starting later? • Higher MAFM, MAFB • Successive cohorts show fertility ‘deficit’ from beginning of reproductive career • Recent experience of C and S Europe (Frejka and Calot 2001) • or: Stopping sooner? • Little change in MAFM and MAFB • Fertility ‘deficit’ from later stage in the life course • Experience of Ukraine, Moldova (Perelli-Harris 2005; Bulgaru et al. 2000)

  6. Measures calculated • Period and Cohort Perspectives • MAFM • MAFB • Cohort • Birth Intervals • Cumulated fertility (CEB) over life course

  7. Data • Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey, 2002 • Part of Demographic and Health Survey project • Nationally Representative • 5588 women, aged 15-49

  8. Period: change in MAFM and MAFB

  9. Cohort: Age at First Marriage Results

  10. Cohort: Age at First Birth

  11. Cumulated fertility

  12. Conclusions • Clear ‘stopping sooner’ pattern. Why? • Increased early fertility • Earlier marriage • Rational response to uncertainty? • Trend for ‘conspicuous consumption’ increased importance of marriage • Continued short first birth interval • Decreased later fertility • Economic hardship reduced fertility later in life course • Context crucial

  13. ‘Stopping sooner’ vs. ‘starting later’ framework • Merely different stages in fertility decline? • Expected progression from ‘stopping sooner’ to ‘starting later’ mechanism of decline- UN 2001 • BUT Russia (Kohler and Kohler 2002), Ukraine (Perelli-Harris 2005) – reached low TFRs without real tendency for postponement • My perspective: no inevitability about the progression. • Relegates spatial difference to temporal difference • Context dependent

  14. Agenda for future research • Fertility change in Tajikistan • poorest of former Soviet Republics in 1991 • experienced most severe changes • no academic work on fertility change thus far • more explicit focus on period measures • Challenges • Quality of data • Calculating exposure for period measures • Especially difficult without exact dates • Advice welcome!

  15. e-mail: dmc104@soton.ac.uk References References Agadjanian, V (1999) Post-soviet demographic paradoxes: Ethnic differences in marriage and fertility in Kazakhstan.Sociological Forum. 14(3): 425-446. Barbieri M, Blum A, Dolkigh E and Ergashev A (1996) Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and Family Policies in Uzbekistan Population Studies 50:69-88 Bulgaru M, Bulgaru O, Sobotka T and Zeman K. (2000). Past and present population development in the Republic of Moldova, in Kučera T, Kučerová O, Opare O and Schaich E (eds.) New Demographic Faces of Europe. Berlin: Springer, pp. 221-246. Frejka T and Calot G (2001) Cohort Reproductive Trends in Low-Fertility Countries Population and Development Review 27(1):103-132 Kohler, H-P and Kohler I (2002), Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises.European Journal of Population 18: 233-262. Kuzibaeva, G. (2001) Fertility transition in Uzbekistan: demographic trends and reproductive health policy, Central Asia Monitor 2001(2). Karimov, S I, Akhror B Yarkulov and Asadov D A (1997) Fertility, in Institute of Obstetrics and Gynaecology [Uzbekistan] and Macro International Inc. Uzbekistan Demographic and Health Survey, 1996. Calverton, Maryland: Institute of Obstetrics and Gynaecology and Macro International Inc, pp.35-45. Kamilov A I, Sullivan J and Mutalova Z D (2004) Fertility, Chapter 4 in Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey 2002. Calverton, Maryland, USA: Analytical and Information Center, State Department of Statistics, and ORC Macro. Mason K O (1997) Explaining Fertility Transitions Demography 34(4):443-454 Perelli-Harris (2005) The path to lowest-low fertility in Ukraine. Population Studies 59(1):55-70. UNICEF (2005) TransMONEE Database, UNICEF IRC, Florence.

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