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Joint Eurostat-UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections. April 28-30, 2010, Lisbon. An Examination on Recent Upturn in Japan. Applying Fertility Projection System to Period Effect Analysis:. Ryuichi Kaneko. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Tokyo, Japan.

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An examination on recent upturn in japan l.jpg

Joint Eurostat-UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

April 28-30, 2010, Lisbon

An Examination on Recent Upturn in Japan

Applying Fertility Projection System to Period Effect Analysis:

Ryuichi Kaneko

National Institute of Population

and Social Security Research

Tokyo, Japan


Three objectives l.jpg
Three Objectives

(1) To show the usefulness of population projection in analyzing past and current demographic processes.

(2) To classify and clarify the period effects in terms of changes in cohort fertility schedule.

(3) To see the cause of the recent fertility upturn in Japan. Is it same as Euro & US?


Period effect l.jpg
Period Effect

Term “Period Effect”came from epidemiology,specifically from APC-Analysis,denotes changes caused by period phenomena.

Demographer needs another definition,because the Temp-effect is one of period effects, but is caused by cohort changesin age distribution of the event.


Period effect of fertility l.jpg
Period Effectof Fertility

Period effect can’t be defined in terms of causes.We usually don’t know the causes of fertility changes. Causes are for us to be identified.

Tentative Definition :Period Effect is a change in fertility rate in a certain period, which does not influence the completed fertility of participating cohorts.



Slide6 l.jpg

Figure3 Types of Period Effect in Terms of Cohort Fertility Schedule

(1)

(2)

Type-Tl

Type-Td

(3)

(4)

Type-H

Type-Ts


Period effect of fertility7 l.jpg
Period Effectof Fertility

Period Effect of type-T isinduced by three types of timing shiftin cohort fertility schedule. type-Tl : location shift type-Td : dispersion shift type-Ts : shape shift

Period Effect of type-H is transient and unpredictable.

incorporated in cohort fertility projections

can not be in population projections


Slide8 l.jpg

Figure3 Types of Period Effect in Terms of Cohort Fertility Schedule

(1)

(2)

Type-Tl

Type-Td

(3)

(4)

Type-H

Type-Ts


Slide9 l.jpg

A Case Example of Type-H Period Effect: The Hinoe-uma Effect in 1966 in Japan

Hinoe-uma


Slide10 l.jpg

Figure 4 ASFR of Japanese Female Cohort Born in 1935: An Example of PE(type-H)

born in 1935

Hinoe-uma

(Fiery Horse)


Slide11 l.jpg

Figure 4 ASFR of Japanese Female CohortsAn Example of PE(type-H)

born in 1932

born in 1935

H

H

H

born in 1938

born in 1941

H


Slide12 l.jpg

Figure3 Types of Period Effect in Terms of Cohort Fertility Schedule

(1)

(2)

Type-Tl

Type-Td

(3)

(4)

Type-H

Type-Ts


Why is the distinction between type t and type h important l.jpg
Why is the distinctionbetween type-T and type-Himportant?


Slide14 l.jpg

Trends of Total Fertility Rate in Japan

type-T period effect ?

(recuperation?)

or

type-H period effect ?

(boom?)


How to detect and measure the period effect of type h l.jpg
How to Detect and measure the Period Effect of type-H


Slide16 l.jpg

Figure 10 Actual and Modeled Cohort Fertility Rates by Birth Order

by Five Year Age Groups

●Actual

--- Model


Slide17 l.jpg

Period TFR: Actual Orderand Projection Model

Detection of Period Effect of type-H

Figure 5 Trends of Total Fertility Rate: Observed and Assumed


Results the period effect of type h in recent japanese fertility trend l.jpg
Results : Orderthe Period Effect of type-Hin Recent JapaneseFertility Trend


Slide19 l.jpg

Figure Order11 Estimates of Type-H Period Effects

-Differences between Actual and Projected Fertility Rates-

by Five Year Age Groups

by Birth Order


Some other analyses on the fertility upturn in 2006 8 in japan l.jpg
Some Other Analyses Orderon the Fertility Upturn in 2006-8 in Japan


Slide21 l.jpg

Figure Order6 Monthly Progresses of Fertility Rates by Birth Order: 2002-2009

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)


Slide22 l.jpg

Figure Order9 Trends of the Total Fertility Rates with/without Tempo-adjustment


Slide23 l.jpg

Figure Order4 Type-H’ is Not a Genuine Period Effect, But it Starts Similarly

Type-H

Type-H’

Type-H’ is not a genuine period effect, because it changes cohort completed fertility.

It rather be classified a period-cohort effect.


Conclusion 1 l.jpg
Conclusion (1) Order

  • The recent upturn could mainly be explained by the period effect, which would not change cohort completed fertility, and particularly the effects that temporally works and would be redeemed in other period ( the type-H period effect ).


Conclusion 2 l.jpg
Conclusion (2) Order

  • The upturn seems to be caused by a rebound of the short term too-low fertility in preceding period, followed by a boom among singles and under-parity families.

  • These are the different in causes from the upturns seen in the US and Europe with so-called "the tempo transition. “(type-T period effect in our terminology)


Conclusion 3 l.jpg
Conclusion (3) Order

  • However, if boom continues for long enough to raise the levels of completed fertility (type-H‘ effect), the long term prospect should be higher than the presently assumed.

  • The proposed method seems work well for the past trends to detect type-H period effects. But it may not be reliable for the current trend to the extent that predicted cohort fertility may be unreliable.


Conclusion 4 l.jpg
Conclusion (4) Order

  • Period Effect The period effects should be classified and clarified in terms of cohort fertility schedule shift so that type of period can be sorted and separated.

  • Projection Techniques for AnalysesModels of population projection can play a significant role in analyzing past and current demographic processes as well as forecasting its future course.



Slide30 l.jpg

Table 1 Contribution of Subgroups to Period Effects of Type H in Selected Years

by Five Year Age Groups

by Birth Order

Note: Comparatively outstanding values for the age groups and birth order are underlined.


Slide31 l.jpg

Figure H in Selected Years8 Monthly Progresses of the Mean Age at Birth by Birth Order: 2002-2009


Slide32 l.jpg

Figure H in Selected Years5 Trends of Total Fertility Rate: Observed and Assumed


Slide33 l.jpg

Figure 11 Estimates of Type-H Period Effects H in Selected Years

-Differences between Actual and Projected Fertility Rates-

By Age and Year

Age

Age

Year

Year


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