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111005 ICFA seminar @CERN. On-going & Near Future for q 13. Takashi Kobayashi KEK. Contents. Introduction T2K results and near future prospect MINOS results Global fit Near future prospect in the world Implication of large q 13 on future Summary. n e. n m. n t.

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on going near future for q 13


ICFA seminar


On-going & Near Future for q13

Takashi Kobayashi


  • Introduction
  • T2K results and near future prospect
  • MINOS results
  • Global fit
  • Near future prospect in the world
  • Implication of large q13 on future
  • Summary
3 flavor mixing of neutrinos




3 flavor mixing of neutrinos

Flavor eigenstates

Mass eigenstates




Pontecorvo-Maki-Nakagawa-Sakata Matrix (CKM matrix in lepton sector)




6 independent parameters govern oscillation

q12, q23, q13, d

Dm122, Dm232, Dm132



present knowledge before june 2011
Present knowledge (before June, 2011)










Big diff from KM matrix

why q 13 so important n m n e appearance and cpv
Why q13 so important?nmne appearance and CPV


Sol term

CPV effect


(sinq12~0.5, sinq23~0.7, sinq13<0.2)

The size of q13 decides future direction!


brief history and present situation
Brief history and present situation
  • In 1998, evidence of nm  nx (disappearance) discovered SK in atmn observation
  • In 1999, as a next critical step toward CPV search, importance of nmne appearance search pointed out (K.Nishikawa&Y.Totsuka)
  • In 2001, LoI of T2K
  • After 10yrs of hard work worldwide for various experiments to discover non-zero q13, now we are getting into “harvest” season
  • Final conclusion on q13 will come very soon (hopefully)
searches for non zero q 13
Searches for non-zero q13

By using reactor neutrino

  • :<E> ~ a few MeV edisappearance
  • P(ee) = 1- sin2213・sin2(1.27m231L/E) + O(m221/m231)
  •  Almost pure measurement of q13.
  • Small deficit signal  systematics dominated

By using accelerator neutrino

  • nm:<E> ~ O(GeV)  neappearance
  • P(me) = sin2q23・sin2213・sin2(1.27m231L/E) + many terms(incl. d)
  •  Appearance measurement of q13.
  •  Statistics limited

T2K (2009~), NOvA (2014~)

Double Chooz(2011~), RENO(2011~), Daya Bay(2012~)


tokai to kamioka t2k long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment
Tokai-to-Kamioka (T2K) long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment
  • Intense off-axis (2.5deg) nm beam from J-PARC MR tuned at osc. max.
  • Reached 145kW (~0.9x1014ppt)
  • Data taking Jan. 2010 ~ Mar.11, 2011
  • All data (1.43e20POT) analyzed

1.43e20pot accumulated



t2k analysis results

PRL 107, 041801 (2011)

T2K analysis results

One of most critical selection criterion validated by Atm-nelike data &Atm-ndata+MC hybrid control sample

  • All data analysed
  • Event selection
    • Signal Efficiency = 66%
    • Background Rejection:
      • 77% for beam νe
      • 99% for NC
  • 6 candidate events remain
  • 1.5±0.3 BG expected
  • Probability to observe >=6 evts w/ sin22q13=0: 0.7%
  • 2.5 s excess observed
t2k allowed regions

PRL 107, 041801 (2011)

T2K allowed regions

Chooz 90%CL

upper bound


t2k j parc status and plan
T2K&J-PARC status and plan
  • J-PARC has not been operated since Mar. 11, 2011
  • Intensive recovery works are on-going
  • We will resume J-PARC operation in Dec. 2011
    • First, LINAC will start operation on Dec. 12, 2011
  • We plan to have >2 “cycle”(~month) beam for users within JFY2011 (by the end of Mar,2012)
  • In FY2012 (Apr.2012-Mar.2013) J-PARC plan to operate fully (~9month) (budget requested)
  • LINAC energy recovery from 181MeV to 400MeV originally scheduled in 2012 was delayed to start July 2013
    • User’s needs to take longer beam after long shutdown by the earthquake
    • Delay of preparation caused by earthquake
prospect of beam power
Prospect of beam power
  • Highest priority is to establish non-zero q13 and precise measurement of q13 as soon as possible
  • T2K is still very much statistically limited (only 2% of approved POT has been taken)
  • Accelerator power improvement is CRITICAL (At present 145kW)
    • Short term
      • Replacement of inj. Kicker before next beam
      • Addition of RF (planned) for higher rep&ppb
      • Higher capacity for beam loss (collimator)
      • Tuning of present MR power supply for higher rep rate (3.042.6  more)
      • High power beam study
    • Longer term (few yrs) toward design intensity and beyond
      • R&D of high gradient RF core
      • R&D of high rep rate MR power supply (~1Hz or more)
t2k sensitivities and milestones
T2K sensitivities and milestones
  • We have : 0.07[MWx107s] = 0.143e21 pot

We aim to have

  • By Summer 2013: ~0.5[MWx107s] ~ 1e21pot
    • Conclude non-zero q13
    • >5sigma for present T2K central value
  • Within a few yrs : ~ 1[MWx107s] ~ 2e21pot
    • > 3sigma for sin22q13 > 0.04
  • Approved goal : 3.75[MWx107s] ~ 8e21pot
    • > 3sigma for sin22q13 >~ 0.02
minos 1 st gen exp
MINOS (1st gen. exp.)

FNAL 120GeV Main Injector  Soudan mine (735km)

Horn-focused wide band nm beam

(magnetized)Iron-scintillator sampling calorimeter

5,400tons @ far, 980tons @ near

Taking data >6yrs

8.2e20pot data w/ neutrino run is used for ne appearance search

Far detector

a global fitting
Exclude q13=0 at more than 3s level

Best fit : sin2q13=0.021  sin22q13 = 0.084

Most urgent & important task: EXPERIMENTALLY DEFINITELY conclude

A global fitting

G.L.Fogli, et.al, arXiv:1106.6028v1 [hep-ph]

near future prospects in the world
Near future prospects in the world
  • 1st gen LBL experiment
    • OPERA
      • Expected (6.6E19POT)
        • Beam ne: 48.5
        • NC : 5.2
        • Signal : 5.2 (sin22q13=0.1)
        • (No kinematical cut)
      • Results expected in 2012
  • q13 optimized experiments
    • Reactor experiments
    • NOvA
reno experiment
16.1GW reactor & 2x16ton detectors (1.4km)

Started data taking with both near & far detectors from Aug. 1, 2011.

First results on sin2(2q13) ~0.5 are expected to be available within a half year.

sin2(2q13) > 0.02 at 90% within ~3yrs

RENO experiment



T2K center

Fogli Global fit center


double chooz
Double Chooz
  • 8.2GW reactor & 2x8ton detector (1.05km)
  • Far detector completed, started data taking since Apr. 13, 2011, >120dys w/ 75% phys data live
  • Data taking w/ near det expected from early 2013
  • Sin22q13 sensitivity (90%CL) ~0.08 in half yr, 0.03 ultimately


T2K center

daya bay experiment
6x2.95=17.4GW & 4x20t far/4x20t near det’s (1.6~2km)

4/8 det’s filled, 2det’s taking data

Data taking with full det’s from Summer 2012

sin22q13 <0.03(0.02) at 3s in 1(3) yrs

Daya Bay experiment
FNAL NuMI off-axis beam

Power upgrade 320kW700kW

Recycler: anti-proton  proton

Rep cycle 2.2s  1.33s

New 14kton liquid scintillator fine grained detector @810km

Far detector will complete and start full operation in 2014



nova expected sensitivities
Can measure large q13 (~T2K center) very soon

For smaller q13 good competition

Have some sensitivity on mass hierarchy

NOvA expected sensitivities


T2K region




implication of large q 13 on future
Implication of large q13 on Future
  • If sin22q13> ~0.01
    • Make conventional Multi-MW super beam long baseline experiments possible to explore CPV in lepton sector
    • Although big step needed
  • IF not
    • Need “ideal” beam such as Neutrino Factory or beta beam to probe CPV

T2K region

implication of large q 13 on future1
Implication of large q13 on Future

1st peak @ 295km (0.6GeV)

  • CPV asymmetry get smaller for larger q13
    • Severer requirement on systematic error
    • Matter effect becomes comparable even at @295km
    •  Need energy spectrum information to disentangle CPV and Matter effect
  • ~20% CPV effect at sin22q13=0.1 w/ sindCP=1 (max. vio.) at 1st peak
    • To detect CPV >3s for sind>0.2 (Asym=4%) O(10k) events necessary
    • Much higher statistics is necessary  >MW proton & huge detector mandatory

T2K 90% region

Matter effect

Pure CPV effect

 Next talk

  • Quest for non-zero q13 is turning around final corner
  • T2K detected first indication of ne appearance at 2.5s significance
    • 0.03(0.04)<sin22q13<0.28(0.34) (inv hier)
  • MINOS presented consistent results
  • New reactor experiments are getting online
  • NOvA will come in 2014
  • Discovery of finite q13 will come very soon (hopefully)!
  • Large q13 makes possible to explore CPV with upgraded >MW beam and Huge high sensitivity detector