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Country Profile Area: 147,181 sqkm, landlocked mountainous Population: 27 million HDI (2010) 0.428

NEPAL'S CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO AND EFFORTS TO PROMOTE LOW CARBON ENERGY Dinesh R Bhuju Academician (Fellow) Nepal Academy of Science and Technology. Nepal. Country Profile Area: 147,181 sqkm, landlocked mountainous Population: 27 million HDI (2010) 0.428

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Country Profile Area: 147,181 sqkm, landlocked mountainous Population: 27 million HDI (2010) 0.428

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  1. NEPAL'S CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO AND EFFORTS TO PROMOTE LOW CARBON ENERGYDinesh R BhujuAcademician (Fellow) Nepal Academy of Science and Technology

  2. Nepal Country Profile Area: 147,181 sqkm, landlocked mountainous Population: 27 million HDI (2010) 0.428 Per capita income: $1,100 (2008 est.) Main economic activity: Agriculture, >80 % of the population Energy: About 80% forest (fuel wood) Natural Resources: About 6,000 rivers and streams; About 7,000 vascular plant species Nepal, along with over 150 other countries, signed UNFCCC in June1992; ratified the convention on 2nd May in 1994, and this convention came into force on 31st July in 1994. Emission data for three gases having direct Greenhouse effects in Nepal

  3. 22.0 21.0 20.0 19.0 Temperature(°C) 18.0 17.0 16.0 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 2003 2005 2007 2009 Year ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TREND All Nepal Mean Temperature Trend

  4. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN NEPAL GCM Projections Temperature increase 0.5ºC - 2.0ºC with a multi-model mean of 1.4ºC, by the 2030s. Extremely hot days projected to increase by up to 55% by the 2060s and up to 70% by the 2090s; Extremely hot nights are projected to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and 93% by the 2090s. Precipitation change: from a decrease of 14% to an increase of 40% by the 2030s and from a decrease of 52% to an increase of 135% by the 2090s. IPCC 4th Assessment Report Risk of GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods): starting to reduce the risks of GLOFs by draining water from glacier lakes [18.xcl]. Glacial lake size: Lake Tsho Rolpa in the Nepal Himalaya has increased from 0.23 km2 to 1.65 km2 (1957-1997) [1.3.1.1]. Serious and recurrent floods during 2002, 2003 and 2004 [Table 10.3] Temperature and decreases in precipitation along with increasing water use have caused water shortages that led to drying up of lakes and rivers [10.2.4.2]

  5. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTCloudburst of 19-21 July 1993, Tistung • Highest 24-hr max. rainfall: 540 mm Highest Rainfall intensity: 67 mm/hr (Tistung) • Northward shift of monsoon trough & local effect • Flash flood, debris flow and landslides • More than 1000 deaths • Loss of animals and properties amounted to hundreds of millions of rupees. • Damage to hydropower, Barrage, bridges, irrigation projects, buildings, agricultural land etc.

  6. EVOLUTION OF GLACIAL LAKE AX010 1989 1978

  7. VEGETATION SHIFT IN HIGH HIMALAYA There was new recruitments of seedlings and saplings in tree-line ecotone. The species limit has advanced from 3,673m asl in 1958 to 3,841m asl in 2007 with a total of 168 m upslope shift at the average rate of 34.29 m per decade. The seedlings below tree-line have comparatively faster growth. ______________________________ Ref. M. Suwal 2010

  8. ENERGY SCERNARIO OF NEPAL World average energy consumption per year per person: 68 Gigajoule Per capita energy consumption of Nepal: 15 Gigajoule

  9. HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION • Rivers: >6000; Steep topography • Potential 83,000 MW; Technically feasible 43,000 MW • Pharping: 500 kW • Access to electricity: 43.6% of the total population • Total energy generated 714 MW; Fulfills merely 1% of total energy demand • Currently power deficit of 400 MW in the country Source: Economic Survey, MOF, 2009/10

  10. STATUS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY Source: RETs Data Book, AEPC,2010

  11. SOLAR ENERGY Country Average = 4.7 kWh/m2/day Around 300 days Sunshine Solar Energy source is free Solar Energy source is Renewable Solar Energy is abundant 10% tapping- 34587535000 KWh/day

  12. SOLAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES Solar Thermal Technology Solar Photovoltaic Technology Solar Light Energy Solar Heat Energy • Solar Dryer • Solar Cooker • Solar Water Heater • Solar room heating system • Solar Refrigeration • Solar Home System • Solar Tuki • Institutional solar PV system • Solar Water pumping system • Building integrated solar PV Systems • Electrical vehicle charging station

  13. PV POWER Application of PV Power by Sector Total electricity generation: 4,635 kWp; Public Call Offices 75% by PV system. Potential 8 GWh/day, if 0.01% of the total land area is used. Source: AEPC 2006 Pyramid International Lab. Nepal

  14. WIND ENERGY • The annual average energy potential is about 3.387 MWh/m2 • The potential area of wind power in the country is about 6074 sq. km with wind power density greater than 300 watt/m2 • More than 3,000 MW of electricity could be generated at 5 MW per sq km. • The commercially viable wind potential of the country is estimated to be only about 448 MW.

  15. BIOMASS & BIOGAS • Biomass energy accounts for about 15% of the world’s primary energy consumption and about 38% of the primary energy consumption in developing countries (WECS 2010). • Furthermore, biomass often accounts for more than 90% of the total rural energy supplies in developing countries • The potential of producing biogas is about 1.9 million plants out of which 57% in Terai, 43% in hills and mountains. • There are more than 2,000,000 biogas plants installed in various districts of Nepal. • Biomass from waste and invasive plant species

  16. BIOFUEL PROSPECTS 1 hectare Fossil Fuel Replacement for Petrol: Ethanol Production/ha Cost of Production : NPR 22/l Capacity: 22000kl to replace 7300kl of petrol Annual Fossil Fuel Consumption: Petrol: 73,000kl/year 40MT of sugar cane processing 4 MT sugar 1.6 MT molasses 352L of ethanol Fermentation 2800L of ethanol

  17. FOSSIL FUEL REPLACEMENT FOR DIESEL 7500kg of seed cake Fertilizer Cost of Production : NPR 43/l Without selling byproducts: NPR 32/l by selling by products Annual Fossil Fuel Consumption: Diesel 2,75,000kl/year transesterification 1 hectare 10 MT of seeds 3048L biodiesel 2500 plants 384kg of Glycerol soap/ cake

  18. Energy Policy Structure • Periodic Development Plan: since Fifth Plan (1975-1980) • Hydropower Development Policy 1992 • Water Resources Strategy 2002 • National Water Plan 2005 • Ten Year Hydropower Development Plan 2009 • Rural Energy Policy 2006 • Act/Rules/Regulations

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