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The Global Food Security Challenge (worldbank/wdr2008)

The Global Food Security Challenge (www.worldbank.org/wdr2008). GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th. Critical Role of Agriculture in Food Security. In ensuring adequate food supply Global food supply and demand (and shocks) National food supply and demand for many countries (Africa, China, India)

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The Global Food Security Challenge (worldbank/wdr2008)

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  1. The Global Food Security Challenge (www.worldbank.org/wdr2008) GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th

  2. Critical Role of Agriculture in Food Security • In ensuring adequate food supply • Global food supply and demand (and shocks) • National food supply and demand for many countries (Africa, China, India) • In providing means for poor to access to food • 75 percent of the world’s poor are rural, and most depend on agriculture for livelihoods • Essential role of agriculture in providing subsistence and incomes of the poor

  3. Agriculture as a Powerful Engine for Increasing Incomes of the Poor • Major conclusion of World Development Report 2008: Agricultural growth is two to four times more effective in reducing poverty than growth coming from other sectors Agricultural growth is especiallybeneficial to the poor 3

  4. Whither global Supply and Demand?

  5. Critical land and water constraints GlobalMarkets ̶ Supply Side Cropland per capita of agricultural population % of population in absolute water scarcity

  6. Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries are slowing GlobalMarkets ̶ Food Supply

  7. Rising Energy Prices and Climate Change Price of Urea Fertilizer ($US/t) Climate change will negatively affect yields in the tropics, 2080 Source: Cline (2007) Doubling of oil prices increases grain prices by at least 20%

  8. Changing diets ̶ Rising demand for high value products (and feed grains) Global Markets: Demand Side Meat Horticulture Cereals Developing and transitional country consumption Developing and transitional country exports

  9. Demand for Grain for Biofuels is a Major New Factor in Global Markets Source: OECD and FAO, 2008

  10. Long-run Prices are Projected to Rise with Current Investment Trends Source: Rosegrant et al., 2008

  11. Food Production—Continuing Challenges in the 21st Century • A greater global challenge • More from less • The end of long-term falling food prices? • Trade offs with the environment • Increased volatility • Climate change, energy prices • Future policies on biofuels, reserves, export bans • Inclusive growth • Sharing benefits between producers and consumers • Connecting smallholders to emerging markets

  12. Investing for food security

  13. Requires Emphasis on Both Technological and Institutional Innovations: • Technological innovations • Higher yield potential to revamp productivity growth • Overcoming key resource constraints (water, drought) • Role of GMOs for poor farmers and consumers • Substitution of fossil energy use • Adaptation to climate change and reduced GHGs • Institutional innovations • More efficient and inclusive supply chains • Collective action by farmer organizations • Risk management for more frequent price shock

  14. More and Better Investments in R&D to Bridge Growing Divide Agricultural R&D Intensity 2000 (% AgGDP) Agricultural R&D as a Share of Budget, 2000-04 Source: Pardey and Beintema,

  15. Recent Yield Advances Indicate the Potential for R&D to Reverse Trends

  16. Implications for the Global Community • Do no harm • Reform farm and biofuel subsidies • Mitigation of climate change • Invest in global public goods • R&D (CGIAR) • Get agriculture back on the agenda • Reverse trend in foreign assistance • Revamp national food and agricultural strategies

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