THIS BRIEF IS UNCLASSIFIED

1. CDR Ashley Evans, USN Commanding Officer, SGOT-SD THIS BRIEF IS UNCLASSIFIED

2. Global Fleet Operations

3. PANAMAX 2008

4. Joint Logistics Over The ShoreJLOTS 2008

5. EASTPAC Storms

6. Battlespace On DemandLinking Forecasts to Decisions Making better decisions faster than the adversary Decision superiority:

7. Prepare for Tomorrow Focus “Battlespace on Demand”  Decision Support Intuitive, accessible GI&S-based products embedded in Navy/Joint C4I Navy / National Weather & Ocean Modeling Strategy Develop selected ‘Decision Layer’ (Tier III) products Speed to Capability Play a critical role in: UUV’s Undersea Warfare Advances Climate Change / Arctic Ops Energy Alternatives and Efficiency Expand Joint Wx operations with USAF and NOAA CNMOC 2009 Goal #3

8. Operational PlanningTeam Engagement MissionPlanning Cell Engagement OPLAN/CONPLAN Development EnvironmentalReconnaissance EnvironmentalReconstruction and Analysis Level of Effort Trade Space Opportunity Level of Impact TAS TOS Mission execution briefs COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies Years Months Weeks Days Hours Strategic Operational Tactical Gaps in Support

9. When - WESTPAC 2004 Typhoon Tracks CONSIDERED AN AVERAGE TYHPOON SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM TYPHOON DATA FROM 30 JUL-15 OCT 2004 STORMS 12W TO 28W PROVIDED BY JTWC NPMOC PEARL HARBOR

10. JCSSG Western Pacific Deployment 2004METOC Impacts May June July August September October November MODLOC TRANSIT PVST Sasebo - Tokyo Port Call (20-25 Aug) STY19W – Chaba TY20W - Aere East China Sea (18-27 Aug) TS21W TY22W Songda 5 days Seas > 8ft Okinawa Area (7-16 Aug) TY15W Malou TY16W Rananim TY18W Megi 8 days Seas > 8 ft 2 days flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened South China Sea (28Aug - 17 Sep) TS23W 1 day flight ops shortened 3 days Seas > 8ft 1 day with ceilings < 300’ Malacca Strait waterspout Gulf of Alaska (2-16 Jun) 2 Major Storm Systems 3 days flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened 4 days of Seas > 8ft 2 days with ceilings < 300’ 6 STW missions to PARC no drop due to WX (clouds) 20 days with SST < 50° Guam Area (11-16 Oct) TY27W – Tokage TY28W – Nock-Ten 2 days flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened 4 days of Seas > 8ft 1 days with ceilings < 300’ Hawaii OPAREA (29 Jun - 26 Jul) 5 STW missions to PTA no drop due to WX (clouds) Eastern Australia Ocean (20Sep – 8 Oct) 1 day flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened 6 days of Seas > 8ft 2 STW missions to Lancelin range no drop due to WX (clouds)

11. Environmental Decision Superiority for the 21st Century Patton and Halsey Adapted from the movie “Patton” (1970)

12. Smart Climatology – Analysis MethodsLong Term Fluctuations and Trends – SST, East China Sea, Jul-Sep Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology T (oC) year SST (oC), East China Sea, Jul-Sep, 1969-2006. Note pronounced interannual variations and long term positive trend. Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution of the climate system, and updates climate statistics accordingly. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project.

13. b a Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. Smart Climatology – Data SetsEvaporation Duct Heights Smart Climatology Existing Navy Climatology Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.

14. Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology b a Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology after plotting in map form by NPS. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. Smart Climatology – Data SetsEvaporation Duct Heights Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.

15. TC Formation Probabilities for 01-07 Oct 2006 10% 25% 40% 55% 70% Verifying observations of TC formation sites during 01-07 Oct 2006 Results shown are from NPS hindcast. Experimental forecasts in development at NPS. Smart Climatology – Long Lead PredictionTropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction, Western North Pacific Method very applicable to probabilistic forecasts of TC intensity and track. Analyses of climate scale relationships between large scale environment and TCs leads to predictions of TC activity at leads of weeks to months. Apply smart climo methods to develop systems for producing weekly to seasonal predictions of the upper ocean and the atmosphere that drives it. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer. 17 ASW Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

16. Probabilistic Forecast Techniques and Ensemble Modeling

17. 6 6 Typhoon Dolphin Typhoon > 64 Kts Tropical Storm 34 – 63 Kts Tropical Depression < 34 Kts Remnant Low < 25 Kts Rain Total* 4 – 8 inches Storm Surge* N/A Wave Heights* 20 – 24 feet *Near Center of Storm o L 6 6 Kadena Fri 19/06Z 20G30Kt Thu 18/06Z 40G50Kt Thu 18/06Z 40G50Kt Wed 17/18Z 55G70Kt Wed 17/00Z 60G75Kt Image Valid: 17/06Z Typhoon Categories Typhoon: 64 – 129 Kts Super Typhoon: >130 Kts

18. Key Fleet Capabilities for 21st Century Support • Data, Data, Data • Globally connected with links to other services, multinational, federal, and state agencies • Smart Climatology and hybrid LRF • Without a robust data feed - marginal results • Global Model (NOGAPS/GFS) Ensemble Feed as Initial Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Models and meso-scale models • Develop first order sensitivity guidance for military forecaster use with Ensembles • Google Presentation Feed for the Millennium Generation • Standardized • Built to the sailor’s cognitive environment

19. Questions