Support for RPP2 Housing Futures

1. Support for RPP2 Housing Futures Review & Proposals R Emmanuel, K Baker, M Phillipson GCU Feb 01, 2012

2. RPP2: Housing Futures Outline • Background issues • Review of RPP1 (devolved/non-devolved) • General concerns • Approaches for future (2022-2030 & beyond) 2

3. Background Energy use in homes, housing stock

4. Key UK-wide trends • Average household energy use has also fallen in real terms from 22,235 to 18,639 kWh from 1970 to 2009, with the levelling off observed since 1995 • Improvements in the Building Regulations, leading to a consistent increase in SAP ratings • Promotion and uptake of common energy efficiency measures • The changing climate – warmer winters • Increase in occupants' expectations of thermal comfort, • Rapid and sustained rise in energy demand for appliances and consumer technology Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 4

5. Key UK-wide trends . . . • Other trends • Decline in energy use for water heating and cooking, related to the switch to gas • Ageing population • Ageing housing stock and levels of maintenance • Rapid increase in the number of employees working from home • Changes in the tenure mix – recent growth in the (less energy efficient) privately-rented sector is a particular problem Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 5

6. Scottish Housing Stock Mean CO2 emissions (tonnes /yr) in dwellings in Scotland Source: SHCS, 2011 Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 6

7. RPP1 landscape Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 7

8. Review of RPP1 Devolved Issues

9. Quality & performance of existing housing • Insulation without compromising IAQ/Ventilation provision • Thermal comfort improvement in under-heated housing could have a positive health impact, particularly amongst elderly occupants • Reduction in dampness problems or resultant mould issues could benefit in terms of reduced risk of respiratory problems Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 9

10. EAP/HIS/UHIS • ‘The best UK exemplar in terms of providing both a comprehensive approach ... and to linking the fourth level of assistance to the energy inefficiency of the home.’(Boardman, 2010) • In its first year the EAP along with HIS achieved the installation of 11,502 new heating systems and 26,110 measures, at a cost of £65.9 million • Effectiveness heavily dependent on retaining the engagement of households from stage to stage Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 10

11. EAP/HIS/UHIS • Main problems . . . • Supply not being able to meet demand, particularly in rural areas • Contradiction between driving energy efficiency and reducing fuel poverty • Accessing of CERT for part of the funding (for EAP/HIS) may be risky in the long term • However, given the popularity and demand, expanding these make sense Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 11

12. Other devolved issues • Scottish New Build Domestic Energy Stds. 2007-2013 • Problems particular to housing in exposed locations • Addressing the urban / rural divide • Problems particular to tenure • Triggering energy efficient renovation • Scottish New Build Domestic Energy Stds. 2013-2022 • Is net zero carbon by 2016/17 still valid? Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 12

13. Review of RPP1 Non-devolved Issues

14. Key issues • EPBD and EPCs • CERT and CESP • FiTs • Green Deal / ECO Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 14

15. EPBD and EPCs • Consultation on EPBD recast now closed • No evidence that EPCs are driving up demand for energy efficient buildings (or higher rentals) • Needs awareness-raising and education - current proposals will aid this • Emphasis on giving consumers the best information, in the best format, at the best time Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 15

16. CERT and CESP • CERT • Issue of bias towards energy efficiency over microgen • Support recommendations in RPP1 sections 4.56 to 4.58 • CESP • Problems with complexity • Take up rate disproportionately low in Scotland (and London) • Appears less successful with the fuel poor • Much useful evidence for informing future work • Future initiatives should have wider scopes of measures and maximise delivering packages of intervention measures Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 16

17. FiTs • Have led to 100% growth in capacity in Scotland, but 360% in England and Wales • Marked difference in measures installed • Scotland: wind and hydro; E&W: solar • Reflects greater take up in rural areas • Need to increase take up in urban and fuel poor areas • Problem of signals from Westminster to the industry and investors Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 17

18. Green Deal and ECO • Response to proposals given in the full report • Causes for concern: • For households not connected to the gas grid there will be "no additional incentive" for heat pumps or low carbon heat over more traditional approaches (p. 74) • The proposals "do not intend to take account of “active comfort taking” in the savings estimates as the assessment is based on the physical performance of the building“ (p. 82) • "We do not propose to guarantee that the charge will be fully offset by the savings. This would be extremely difficult to either implement or enforce. However, there is nothing to stop organisations going further and guaranteeing that their measures will save customers money" (p. 106) • Support for energy efficiency, renewables and tackling fuel poverty should not be allowed to fall following the retirement of CERT • Any schemes should not ultimately lead to higher bills for the poor Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 18

19. General concerns

20. Cost vs. CO2 savings Note: SF – Solid Wall Flat; CWH – Cavity Wall House; TFH – Timber Frame House WA GSHP – Warm Air Ground Source Heat Pump; Combined = insulation + lighting + boiler replacement + GSHP Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 20

21. Micro/distributed generation Supply Limits in Scotland Source: Element Energy, 2008 Installed micro- and distributed-generation in Scotland Source: Allan et al., 2011 Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 21

22. Renewables and distributed generation • Fundamental need for new infrastructure • New developments • New build • Retrofitted • Networks for microgeneration • Networks for renewable heat • Low voltage networks • In the long term – the Supergrid • Ownership • Technological mix • How to bridge the demand gap? Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 22

23. Others • Modelled performance vs. Post Occupancy Evaluation • Actual insulation performance is often less than expected (poor workmanship, unrealistic assumptions about stock . . .) • Occupant behaviour (‘take back’) • Model limitations • Behaviour change, adaptation and community empowerment • Smart meters • Energy efficiency advice services • Using ‘what works’ in behaviour change • Engaging communities • Funding, monitoring and evaluating Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 23

24. Approaches for the future 2022-2030 & beyond

25. Our recommendations • Accelerate the fabric improvement programmes, especially covering Hard-to-Treat (HtT) • Decarbonise the grid at community scale • Use smart meters for better energy management • Enable better understanding of and support for changing attitudes and behaviour, and better adaptation to change Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 25

26. HtT Properties • Not all buildings are suitable for cavity wall insulation • Those without cavity wall • Conventional cavity wall with high exposure • Consequence of cavity fill due to concerns re. cavity • Internal insulation • Need to consider electrical sockets / service penetrations • Interstitial condensation risk • Reduction in internal space dimensions • Rendered external wall insulation and insulated over-cladding • Generally more expensive option Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 26

27. HtT Properties . . . • Insulate and ventilate correctly • External insulation • Changing the appearance of properties (positive for urban regeneration) • Covering over existing thermal bridges • Improving the weather tightness of buildings • Backcourt insulation • Stairwell insulation • Concentrate on ‘fuel hungry’ households Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 27

28. Decarbonise the grid • Renewable heat is as much a priority as renewable electricity • Community scale solutions are cost and carbon effective • To sell micro-generation, sell efficiency first • Tighter regulations • Changes to planning system • Heat mapping / exemplar DH solutions / pilot schemes • Longer term – significant potential for anaerobic digestion Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 28

29. Decarbonise the grid: barriers Source: Williams, 2010. Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 29

30. Smart meters for effective energy mgmt. • Prioritisation of research and development of intelligent energy management systems ('smart' smart meters) to best facilitate their integration into both the built environment and human lifestyles • Capitalising on the cumulative benefits of smart meter technologies that have uses beyond energy saving • Remote control of building services and appliances • Bridging gaps between the physical and social sciences to solve problems relating to human factors • Addressing public concerns over the collection and use of energy data Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 30

31. Behaviour & attitudinal change priorities • Adaptive behaviours favour greater thermal comfort over lower energy use • Greater control over indoor environments should result in more optimal energy use, which aids energy efficiency • Adopting more energy efficient behaviours will reduce household energy consumption • But these behaviours are complex, and are the products of underlying attitudes and behaviours • Understand ‘what works’ and use a bigger toolbox • Communities have key roles • Normalising (and delivering?) behaviour / lifestyle change Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 31

32. References: • Allan G, Eromenko I, McGregor P, Swales K. 2011. The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies, Energy Policy, 39, pp. 6–22 • Baker K, Emmanuel R, Phillipson M. 2011. Final Report: Support for RPP2 Housing Futures. CXC1109-01. Report submitted to Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER) (on behalf of ClimateXChange). Available at: www.climatexchange.org.uk • Element Energy, 2008. Numbers of Microgeneration Units Installed in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Report to BERR. Available at: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file49151.pdf • SHCS 2011. Scottish House Condition Survey: Key Findings 2010. Available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/11/23172215/0 • Williams J. 2010. The deployment of decentralised energy systems as part of the housing growth programme in the UK, Energy Policy, 38, pp. 7604–7613 Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 32