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Climate mitigation at the UNFCCC. Georgina Woods, Climate Action Network Australia [email protected] Sept. 2009 Emissions data taken from WRI, or from party submission to UNFCCC. Background: where are we?. Huge gap between necessary mitigation and current commitments and pledges

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Climate mitigation at the unfccc

Climate mitigation at the UNFCCC

Georgina Woods, Climate Action Network Australia

[email protected]

Sept. 2009

Emissions data taken from WRI, or from party submission to UNFCCC


Background where are we
Background: where are we?

  • Huge gap between necessary mitigation and current commitments and pledges

  • Ambitions of AOSIS and LDCs:

    350ppm 1.5° 45% A1 aggregate.

  • Combined pledges of A1 (excl. US): between 15 and 21% below 1990 levels by 2020

  • Bali range (25-40%) gives 50% chance of avoiding runaway climate change.


Future commitments kyoto
Future commitments: Kyoto

  • Kyoto Protocol requires parties to adopt QELRCs for five year periods (first CP 2008-2012)

  • Does this by setting an Assigned Amount (total emissions for that period)

  • Total KP A1 target for CP1 is 5% below 1990.


A1 pledges
A1 pledges

During KP first CP (to 2012)

On the table for 2020

UK 66% of 1990

EU 70-80% of 1990

Norway 70% of 1990

Canada 97% of 1990

Japan 75% of 1990

Aust.76-96% of 1990

UK 92% of 1990

EU 92% of 1990

Norway 101% of 1990

Canada 94% of 1990

Japan 94% of 1990

Aust. 108% of 1990

But what about the USA?


Future commitments long term cooperative action
Future commitments: Long-term Cooperative action

  • Shared Vision

  • Annex 1 aggregate target

  • Peak years

  • Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

  • International bunkers

  • Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries

  • Sectoral approaches


Uncertainties
Uncertainties

  • Length of commitment

  • Review after IPCC fifth assessment report in 2014?

  • Base years

  • What about countries that haven’t met their 1st Kyoto commitments (eg. NZ)?

  • Bunkers: 2.4% of world total, but rising fast.

  • Aviation emissions >500Mt pa


Complications
Complications

  • Double counting: NAMAs as offsets?

  • Finance and technology transfer

  • Offsets: changes to LULUCF rules?

  • Hot air: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus emissions significantly below CP1 targets.

  • Russian pledge is to go from their current position of 33-34% below 1990 levels now, to being 10-15% below in 2020.

  • What to do about the BRICs?


Brics
BRICs

  • Stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China

  • Without LULUCF: around 29% of global emissions

  • Emissions growing fast: China doubled emissions between 1990 and 2005

  • Low per capita emissions, need sustainable development.


Who will be important
Who will be important?

  • Two thirds of the greenhouse gases emitted between 2000 and 2005 were produced by just five UNFCCC parties: the US (more than one fifth), China, the EU, Russia and Japan.

  • India strongly resisting commitments.

  • Australia chairs the Umbrella group.

  • G77, African group, AOSIS, EU


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