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Climate mitigation at the UNFCCC. Georgina Woods, Climate Action Network Australia [email protected] Sept. 2009 Emissions data taken from WRI, or from party submission to UNFCCC. Background: where are we?. Huge gap between necessary mitigation and current commitments and pledges

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climate mitigation at the unfccc

Climate mitigation at the UNFCCC

Georgina Woods, Climate Action Network Australia

[email protected]

Sept. 2009

Emissions data taken from WRI, or from party submission to UNFCCC

background where are we
Background: where are we?
  • Huge gap between necessary mitigation and current commitments and pledges
  • Ambitions of AOSIS and LDCs:

350ppm 1.5° 45% A1 aggregate.

  • Combined pledges of A1 (excl. US): between 15 and 21% below 1990 levels by 2020
  • Bali range (25-40%) gives 50% chance of avoiding runaway climate change.
future commitments kyoto
Future commitments: Kyoto
  • Kyoto Protocol requires parties to adopt QELRCs for five year periods (first CP 2008-2012)
  • Does this by setting an Assigned Amount (total emissions for that period)
  • Total KP A1 target for CP1 is 5% below 1990.
a1 pledges
A1 pledges

During KP first CP (to 2012)

On the table for 2020

UK 66% of 1990

EU 70-80% of 1990

Norway 70% of 1990

Canada 97% of 1990

Japan 75% of 1990

Aust.76-96% of 1990

UK 92% of 1990

EU 92% of 1990

Norway 101% of 1990

Canada 94% of 1990

Japan 94% of 1990

Aust. 108% of 1990

But what about the USA?

future commitments long term cooperative action
Future commitments: Long-term Cooperative action
  • Shared Vision
  • Annex 1 aggregate target
  • Peak years
  • Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
  • International bunkers
  • Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries
  • Sectoral approaches
uncertainties
Uncertainties
  • Length of commitment
  • Review after IPCC fifth assessment report in 2014?
  • Base years
  • What about countries that haven’t met their 1st Kyoto commitments (eg. NZ)?
  • Bunkers: 2.4% of world total, but rising fast.
  • Aviation emissions >500Mt pa
complications
Complications
  • Double counting: NAMAs as offsets?
  • Finance and technology transfer
  • Offsets: changes to LULUCF rules?
  • Hot air: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus emissions significantly below CP1 targets.
  • Russian pledge is to go from their current position of 33-34% below 1990 levels now, to being 10-15% below in 2020.
  • What to do about the BRICs?
brics
BRICs
  • Stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China
  • Without LULUCF: around 29% of global emissions
  • Emissions growing fast: China doubled emissions between 1990 and 2005
  • Low per capita emissions, need sustainable development.
who will be important
Who will be important?
  • Two thirds of the greenhouse gases emitted between 2000 and 2005 were produced by just five UNFCCC parties: the US (more than one fifth), China, the EU, Russia and Japan.
  • India strongly resisting commitments.
  • Australia chairs the Umbrella group.
  • G77, African group, AOSIS, EU
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