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20 th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

PP CARMA C ommon A rea with R fdbk/ M EC A pplication Amalia IRIZA-BURCA (NMA), Flora GOFA (HNMS). 20 th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018. PP CARMA. Goal

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20 th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

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  1. PP CARMA Common Area with Rfdbk/MEC Application Amalia IRIZA-BURCA (NMA), Flora GOFA (HNMS) 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  2. PP CARMA Goal • replace the existing VERSUS verification software environment with the MEC-Rfdbk software developed by DWD, as a Common Verification Software (CVS) to perform part of the verification activities in the consortium • main use of the new CVS - production of the Common Plot (CP) verification • EPS, spatial and other verification - with MEC-Rfdbk (not the purpose of this project) or with other available tools (VERSUS, VAST, etc.) in each service • addresses the need to perform traditional point verification both for the surface and the upper air • centralized transfer and visualization of CP statistics on the COSMO wed server (following NWP Test suite example) • Link to Support Activities - NWP Test Suite and Common Plot verification (SPRT) Start 12.2018 – End 02.2020 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  3. PP CARMA The Model Equivalent Calculator (MEC) • applies the observation operators from the DA scheme to model forecasts (COSMO, ICON) • stores the results in verification files (NetCDF feedback file format) • fof-files (feedback file format as well) written by COSMO (nudging mode or fg run for KENDA) • use the original observational data (CDFIN, BUFR2NetCDF) => verification files for each observation type (TEMP, PILOT, SYNOP, etc) Characteristics and requirements • produces feedback files • namelist based Installation • Sources: Fortran 2003/2008 and C (Makefile for gfortran provided) • Dependencies: NetCDF, CGRIBEX (MPI Hamburg), GRIP-API (ECMWF), (MPI recommended), Fortran compiler, C compiler • Sufficient memory to hold one model state (1 ensemble state) IO specifications • model in Grib2 format – COSMO or ICON-LAM • parameters - PS, T, U, V, P, Q (mandatory, all model levels); T2M, TD2M, CLC, CLCT, CLCL, CLCM, CLCH, CLC, H_SNOW, TOT_PREC, VMAX_10, TMIN_2M, TMAX_2M • observations (CDFIN: BUFR converted by bufrx2netcdf to NetCDF) • Output: ver-files, NetCDF feedback files including past forecasts 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  4. PP CARMA Rfdbk package • R-based code of functions developed to exploit the information contained in feedback files • load FF content (partially, parallel), calculate basic verification scores (deterministic & EPS) • perform some convenience functions like data adjustment, re-labelling, binning etc Characteristics and requirements • R interface for COSMO feedback files • main purpose of is to load feedback file content with R • additional functionalities useful for verification implemented as well • namelist based verification scipts using Rfdbk do the verification Installation • Sources: R language • Dependencies: netcdf library and R (additional R packages: RNetCDF, data.table, parallel, stringr, survival, grid, verification, reshape2, pcaPP) IO specifications • feedback files obtained previously with MEC - one file for each validity date and observation type • station list file • Output: score files for each validity date and observation type Visualization of results on the COSMO web-server using Shiny R libraries 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  5. PP CARMA Rfdbk package Presentation during GM2017 by F. Fundel (DWD) Rfdbk development is in the following stage: • Verification done for a number of observation types (SYNOP, TEMP, SATOB, GPSRO, SCATT, AIREP, PILOT • Methods continuous and categorical • EPS ensemble and probabilistic • Aggregation on e.g. sub-domains and height bins or levels or periods • Verification of „hindcast“ mode is possible • Cross model verification (e.g. COSMO vs. ICON) is possible 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  6. PP CARMA Design of the MEC-Rfdbk System 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  7. PP CARMA • Prerequisites • DWD can provide support (through the PST) only for installation of MEC-Rfdbk in the “as-is” versions (both software and documentation), i.e. as it is implemented now at DWD. • Future developments and applications of MEC-Rfdbk by the COSMO members beyond common plots after the completion of the project are desirable but implementation and support, e.g. following the concept of COSMO-software, would require a re-assessment of resources, responsibilities and technical as well as organisational constraints – Not part of PP CARMA • If different software/library versions are used from the various services, then they hold the responsibility to adapt the installation files 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  8. PP CARMA Task 1. 1st Level Support Implementation and Training (Start 12.2018–End 04.2019) First level support implementation and training of the Project Support Team (PST); they will, in turn, ensure and support the implementation of the system for all the other partners. • Documentation review and preparation (MEC Rfdbk), analysis of resources required • Preparation of a complete example set of data and scripts to be used during the testing period. • Training provided by DWD experts for first level support to the PST • Implementation of the MEC-Rfdbk system @NMA and @HNMS • Adaptation of scripts to produce the necessary statistical information for • Setup of web interface with the use of Shiny R routines on COSMO server Deliverables: • Installation of the MEC-Rfdbk system @NMA and @HMNS and first tests of the implementation. • Scripts for semi-automatic use of the system, available to project participants through common WG5 repository. • Data for a test period experiment • Completion of test period experiment and production of statistics by PST • Web interface to host Common Area plots for all countries Contributors: A. Iriza-Burca (NMA) – 0.17FTE, F. Gofa (HNMS) – 0.12FTE, B. Maco (NMA) – 0.155FTE, F. Fundel (DWD) – 0.13FTE, R. Potthast (DWD), E. Bauernschubert (DWD) – 0.12FTE, D. Boucouvala (HNMS) – 0.07FTE, T. Andreadis (HNMS) – 0.015FTE Total Task 1: 0.780 FTEs 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  9. PP CARMA Task 2. Second Level Implementation and support (Start 05.2019–End 10.2019) Implementation of the MEC-Rfdbk system by all the member countries, with support from PST DWD support will be provided only when necessary and always through the PST • Remote training by PST for users from each center, mailing list for problems solving, videoconferences • Implementation of MEC-Rfdbk system in each center with support of PST Deliverables: • MEC-Rfdbk system installed by all project participants with support from PST. Contributors: A. Iriza-Burca (NMA) – 0.07FTE, F. Gofa (HNMS) – 0.03FTE, B. Maco (NMA) – 0.07FTE, D. Boucouvala (HNMS) – 0.03 FTE NMSs responsible person P. Kaufmann (MCH) – 0.15FTE, F. Batignani (CoMET) – 0.15FTE, J.Linkowska (IMGW-PIB) – 0.15FTE, D. Boucouvala (HNMS) - 0.015FTE, A.Kirsanov – 0.15FTE (RHM), ?? (IMS) – 0.15FTE, M.S.Tesini (ArpaE) – 0.15FTE, N.Vela (Arpa-PT) – 0.15FTE Total Task 2: 0.90 FTEs 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  10. PP CARMA Task 3. Cross-validation of implementation (Start 09.2019–End 12.2019) Testing of the verification system implementation and training through practical use • Performance of a complete seasonal test with all the necessary output for CP reports • Transfer statistical output to COSMO web server and visualization of results • Comparison of test output with VERSUS or any other “home” verification system. Deliverables: • Evaluation of MEC-Rfdbk system for CP production • Comparison with results from other verification software Contributors: F. Fundel (DWD) – 0.10FTE, P. Kaufmann (MCH), A. Pauling – 0.13FTE, F. Batignani (CoMET) – 0.13FTE, J.Linkowska (IMGW-PIB) – 0.13FTE, T. Andreadis (HNMS) – 0.005FTE, D. Boucouvala (HNMS) - 0.13FTE, M. Bogdan (NMA) – 0.015FTE, A. Iriza-Burca (NMA) – 0.13FTE, B. Maco (NMA) – 0.005FTE, A.Kirsanov (RHM) – 0.13FTE, ?? (IMS) – 0.13FTE, M.S.Tesini (ArpaE) – 0.13FTE, N.Vela (Arpa-PT) – 0.10FTE, Total Task 3: 1.25 FTEs 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  11. PP CARMA Task 4. Implementation of CP activity content (Start 10.2019–End 12.2019 ) Implementation and testing of the MEC-Rfdbk system for Common Plot activities • Development of procedures for seasonal CP activities by all services • MEC output files for seasonal CP • Transfer of MEC output by each service to PST • Run of Rfdbk scripts by PST on an NMA local machine • Visualization of results and evaluation of statistical data by CP activity Deliverables: • Implementation of Common Plot seasonal output with the MEC-Rfdbk system Contributors: F. Fundel (DWD) – 0.04FTE, P. Kaufmann (MCH) – 0.04FTE, F. Batignani (CoMET) – 0.04FTE, J.Linkowska (IMGW-PIB) – 0.04FTE, T. Andreadis (HNMS) – 0.01FTE, D. Boucouvala (HNMS) - 0.04FTE, A. Iriza-Burca (NMA) – 0.09FTE, M. Bogdan (NMA) – 0.05FTE, B. Maco (NMA) – 0.01FTE, A.Kirsanov (RHM) – 0.04FTE, ?? (IMS) – 0.04FTE, M.S.Tesini (ArpaE) – 0.04 Total Task 4: 0.44 FTEs 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  12. PP CARMA Task 5. Elaboration of guidelines for CARMA (MEC-Rfdbk) system use (Start 12.2019–End 02.2020) Preparation of documentation on the use of the MEC-Rfdbk system (incl. CP activities specifications) Deliverables: • Guidelines on the implementation, use and application of the MEC-Rfdbk system for CP production Contributors: A. Iriza-Burca (NMA) – 0.05FTE, F. Gofa (HNMS) – 0.03FTE Total Task 5: 0.08 FTEs Task 0. Administrative Tasks (Start 10.2018 – End 12.2019 ) Deliverables: • Project coordination, meetings, preparation of plans/reports, workshops, regular web conference organization. Contributors: Amalia Iriza-Burca (NMA) – 0.2FTE Total Task 0: 0.2 FTEs Estimated resources (in FTE-years) needed in total: 3.450 FTEs (mostly in 2019) 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  13. PP CARMA Risks • MEC - depending on implementation and resource requirements (Task 1.1) - delays in the installation • COSMO Shiny server – might only be accessible to restricted users, due to web security issues • Solution: 2 people from the PST team (T. Andreadis - HNMS, B. Maco - NMA) will ensure the uploading of results on the web server. • Use of VERSUS - Task 3 involves a cross validation of the verification results against VERSUS (or another “home” verification system). • Risk: VERSUS system may cause some delays in the activities of this task. • Solution: subtask will be optional for participation. • Model data for MEC - Task 4 requires the use of model data generated by each center. • Risk: If necessity model (re)runs for MEC, task can be delayed (resources available at the national centers) • Rfdbk package limitations - Spatial methods not currently included, does not allow for conditional verification applications if the required information about the observations is not in the FF, not linked with an RDB. • Updates– if DWD will not provide new MEC/Rfdbk versions • Either the system will be maintained “as is” at implementation or each member responsible for later development. 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  14. PP CARMA Already implemented for NWP Meteorological Test Suite @ ECMWF "Testbed for the Evaluation of COSMO Model Versions" (2018 – 2020) • MEC-Rfdbk for the NWP Test Suite@ECMWF Evaluation of new version 5.05 (vs. v5.03) • forecast mode, DP 7km and 2.8km, VERSUS and MEC-Rfdbk • forecast mode, SP 7km and 2.8km, MEC-Rfdbk • hindcast mode, MEC-Rfdbk Numerical Weather Prediction Meteorological Test Suite: COSMO 5.05 vs. 5.03 Document- A. Montani, F. Fundel, M. Bogdan, R.C. Dumitrache, F. Gofa, A. Iriza-Burca, F. Batignani soon to be published on the COSMO web site 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  15. PP CARMA 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

  16. Thank you for your attention! Questions? 20th COSMO General Meeting – Sankt Petersburg, 3 – 7 September 2018

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