Amps update july 2010
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AMPS Update – July 2010. Kevin W. Manning Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

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AMPS Update – July 2010

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Amps update july 2010

AMPS Update – July 2010

Kevin W. Manning

Jordan G. Powers

Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division

NCAR Earth System Laboratory

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

AMPS is sponsored by the National Science Foundation – Office of Polar Programs

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Antarctic mesoscale prediction system http www mmm ucar edu rt amps

Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction Systemhttp://www.mmm.ucar.edu/rt/amps

  • Funded by the NSF-OPP

  • Experimental NWP system for Antarctica

    • Using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW)

  • Formal collaboration among

    • National Center for Atmospheric Research

    • Ohio State University – Byrd Polar Research Center

    • University of Colorado

  • Informal interaction with many groups

  • Officially in support of USAP forecasters

    • We try to be useful to other groups doing Antarctic research and forecasting

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


What s new this year

What’s new this year

  • AMSU-A radiance assimilation

  • Correction to radiation scheme at model top (Powers presentation)

  • CAM radiation physics (tried but then removed)

  • Observations statistics (Wilson presentation)

  • Real-time SOM product (CU)

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Amsu a radiance assimilation

AMSU-A Radiance Assimilation

  • Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

  • Passes from several polar-orbiting satellites within a few hours of model initialization time

    • Channels 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 – tropospheric temperatures

  • Variational data assimilation in the WRF-VAR package with adaptive bias correction (Auligne et al., 2007)

    • Attempts to distinguish between model bias and observations bias by taking into consideration other observation sources

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Amsu a radiance assimilation1

AMSU-A Radiance Assimilation

Before WRFVAR screening

After WRFVAR screening

NOAA-15

NOAA-18

NOAA-16

METOP-2

AMSU-A Data within 3 hours of 12 UTC, 01 Jul 2010

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Amsu a radiance assimilation2

AMSU-A Radiance Assimilation

Temperature statistics – verification against all Antarctic radiosonde reports

Forecast hour 0 (i.e., analysis time)

Forecast hour 24

100

100

RMSE

BIAS

RMSE

BIAS

200

200

With AMSU

Without AMSU

300

300

400

400

500

500

600

600

700

700

800

800

900

900

1000

1000

Test Period – 20 December 2009 through 25 January 2010

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Amsu a radiance assimilation3

AMSU-A Radiance Assimilation

Temperature statistics – verification against South Pole radiosonde reports

Forecast hour 0 (i.e., analysis time)

Forecast hour 48

100

100

RMSE

BIAS

RMSE

BIAS

Without AMSU

With AMSU

200

200

300

300

400

400

500

500

600

600

700

700

800

800

900

900

1000

1000

Test Period – 20 December 2009 through 25 January 2010

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Cam radiation schemes

CAM Radiation Schemes

  • LW and SW Radiation physics packages from the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model are options in WRF-ARW

    • CAM is the atmospheric component of NCAR’sCommunity Climate System Model (CCSM)

  • Tested in Antarctica with good results

    • Prompted by Arctic results of Mark Seefeldt and John Cassano, reported at last year's workshop

  • Implemented in the AMPS real-time forecasts in October 2009

    • Problems arose in the real-time configuration

    • Mysterious model / computer failures

  • Changes reverted in December 2009 (RRTM LW, Goddard SW)

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Cam radiation tests

CAM Radiation Tests

  • Consistency from forecast to forecast, but significant near-surface warm bias in summer, especially at elevated sites.

  • Ad hoc adjustment of the snow albedo improved matters

    • Varied albedo from 75 % near sea level to 80 % at2500 m and above.

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Cam radiation tests1

CAM Radiation Tests

Temperature at AWS site Henry; January 2010

RRTM LW GODDARD SW

CAM LW CAM SW

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Cam radiation tests2

CAM Radiation Tests

Temperature at Byrd camp; January 2010

RRTM LW GODDARD SW

CAM LW CAM SW

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


New real time product the self organizing map som

New real-time productThe Self-Organizing Map (SOM)

  • Self-Organizing Map of sea-level pressure in the Ross Sea region, from John Cassano et al.

  • Offers forecasters a view of how well the model has performed in similar situations in the past

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Larissa one way nest

LARISSA one-way nest

  • In support of forecasting for the LARISSA (Larsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica) field campaign

  • 2.5-km grid, initial and boundary conditions from the AMPS 5-km Antarctic Peninsula nest

  • Grid active from 04 Jan through 08 Mar 2010

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


Amps update july 2010

Future?

  • Transition to WRF Version 3.2

    • Some polar modifications ported into the supported WRF code

    • Re-test CAM radiation schemes

NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

5th AMOMFW – Columbus, OH – 12-14 July 2010


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