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Activities of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) relevant for the assessment of spatial development in Europe. Contact : Carlo Lavalle Joint Research Centre of the EC Institute for Environment and Sustainability Land Management Unit Ph: **39 0332 785231; Fax: **39 0332 789085

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Contact carlo lavalle joint research centre of the ec

Activities of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) relevant for the assessment of spatial developmentin Europe

Contact : Carlo Lavalle

Joint Research Centre of the EC

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Land Management Unit

Ph: **39 0332 785231; Fax: **39 0332 789085

E-mail : [email protected]


Institutional framework

Institutional Framework

Committee of the Regions

Court of Auditors

European Parliament

Council of Ministers

Economic and Social Committee

Court of Justice

European Commission

TRADE

INFOR.

RESEARCH

JRC

ENVI.

AGRI

EUROSTAT

REGIO

IND.

Commissioner of Research

Institute for

Environment and Sustainability

EI

IPSC

IRMM

IAM

IHCP

ITU

IPTS


Summary of activities

MOLAND :Monitoring land cover/use dynamics for sustainable urban and regional development

NATURAL HAZARD :Protection of the environment and the citizens against floods (LISFLOOD) and forest fires

ESDI :European Spatial Data Infrastructure

Agri-environmental Indicators – Landscape characterisation

Summary of Activities


Moland monitoring land use cover dynamics towards sustainable urban and regional development

MOLAND(Monitoring Land use/cover Dynamics)Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development

Contact : Carlo Lavalle

Joint Research Centre of the EC

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Land Management Unit

Ph: **39 0332 785231; Fax: **39 0332 789085

E-mail : [email protected]

Web : http://moland.jrc.it


Contact carlo lavalle joint research centre of the ec

MOLAND: Towards sustainable urban and regional development

Aim:

Provide a methodology to assess, monitor and forecast the (sustainable) development of urban and regional environments at EU level

Specific applications:

Assessment of sustainable urban and regional development:

Definition and computation of territorially-based indicators to allow integrated approaches

Development of scenarios for long-term strategies of sustainable development

Evaluate and compare alternative scenariosof spatial planning (land-use) and policy

Determine the critical factors in the input spatial plans and policies

Assessment and evaluation of policies with territorial impact:

Application of the methodology for impact assessment of Regional Development interventions (SF, Cohesion Funds, CI)

Introduction of Strategic Environmental Assessment concepts and tools in urban / regional planning

Complementing the ESPON Research Programme

Networking with local/regional/national authorities


Contact carlo lavalle joint research centre of the ec

MOLAND : Study Areas in Europe


Moland the methodology

Three inter-linked components:

Database preparation(CHANGE): - Measure past and present land use evolution in selected areas (urban, region, corridor,…)

The reference (current) land use database is derived typically for 1998-2000.

The historical database is computed with data from time windows in mid ’50, end of ’60, and ’80 (only 2 dates for larger areas).

Statistics and socio-economic datasets are merged into the GIS

Development of indicators(UNDERSTAND):Identification and computation of territorial and sustainable development indicators to provide a synthetic assessment of urban and regional landscapes.

Static and dynamic environmental indicators comparable across Europe

Development of scenarios (FORECAST):related to urban evolution and assess sustainability of regions

for forecasting future land use development and its impact on environment, under alternative spatial planning and policy scenarios

develop scenarios of growth to formulate and evaluate long term strategy for sustainable development.

MOLAND : The Methodology


Contact carlo lavalle joint research centre of the ec

MOLAND : The methodology

CHANGE

UNDERSTAND

FORECAST

1960

1948

1997

1981

Statistics and trends

Land use evolution

2010

Scenarios of future evolutions

Statistical data (demography, transport, socio-economic, etc.)

Integrated territorial indicators


Moland understand indicators for urban and regional development

MOLAND – UNDERSTAND: Indicators for urban and regional development

  • Land use indicators

  • Urban sprawl

  • Soil Sealing

  • Fragmentation indices

  • Urban/Regional development integrated indicators

  • European Common Indicators

  • Strategic Environmental Assessment of TEN/T


Moland examples of indicators

Green edge

Habitat suitability

Impact of transport corridor

(Dublin)

(Dublin)

(Trans-border Alpine site)

1997

Potential noise pollution

1981

(Munich)

1960

1948

Moland – Examples of indicators

Access to green areas

(Copenhagen)

Urban sprawl

Land use transformation

Road network density

Commuters vs land use

Industr./Comm growth

(Dresden)

Population Growth and location

Urban Growth

Comparative analysis

(Grenoble)


Contact carlo lavalle joint research centre of the ec

Publication of first results

Towards an urban atlas

Assessment of spatial data on 25 European cities and urban areas.

Environmental Issue Report No. 30

Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. ISBN 92-9167-470-2. 131 pp.

Joint publication of European Environment Agency and European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre.

Available on-line at:

http://moland.jrc.it

or:

http://www.eea.eu.int/


Moland forecast method

Land use (2025)

MOLAND – FORECAST - Method

Economic Activities

Employment

Housing demand

Inter-regional migration

Transport flows

Land use demand

Spatial planning and

policy recommendations and guidelines


Moland next steps

Support to the definition of the Urban Thematic Strategy

Chair of the Working Group on Sustainable Urban Management

Creation of a network of cities/regions

Development of scenarios of urban growth at EU dimension

To validate EU policies ( territorial diversity)

Formalise the methodology in the ‘regional policy’ frame

Impact evaluation of Structural Programmes (ERDF, Cohesion, CI,…)

Pilot project in Northern Ireland/Ireland

ESPON -> Moland in the Work Programme

SEA concepts in regional planning

Integrated modeling for concepts such as Peripherality/accessibility/…

An EU ‘artificial layer’ from CORINE 2000 ( at scale 1:25 000) (proposal)

Concept of “dynamic indicators”

City <=> region (carrying capacity and functional area)

MOLAND – Next Steps


Natural hazard

NATURAL HAZARD

Contacts:

[email protected](natural hazards project leader)

[email protected](flood & water activities)[email protected](forest fires)

http://natural-hazards.jrc.it


Natural hazards

Natural Hazards

  • Forest Fires:

    • Processing chain to develop forest fire risk indices

      • Structural Risk index

      • Dynamic index: vegetation status, meteorological observations

      • Advanced fire risk index based on the integration of all indices

    • Processing chain for burnt area mapping and fire damage assessment

  • Floods:

  • Flood simulation modelling system for impact assessment

  • Processing chain for flood extend mapping and damage assessment

  • 

  • Flood risk maps

  • Pre-operational system for Flood-watch

  • European Flood Forecasting System


Flood main activities

Development of LISFLOOD modelling system

large catchments: Oder, Meuse (1km grid)

small catchments: Oder-subc, Meuse-subc, Toce (100m grid)

Europe(5km grid)

Simulation of land-use scenario on flood and water balance

Flood prevention scenario case-studies

Oder (IKSO / Oder-LISFLOOD; OderRegio / INTERREG)

Meuse (Meuse Water Authority)

Elbe & Danube (foreseen for 2003/2004)

Other European Transnational basins (foreseen for 2005-2006)

European Flood Forecasting System

Flood pre-warning and flood risk

Flood extent and damage forecasting

Realtime tests already done: Oder (2001), Elbe & Danube (2002)

Contribution to Catchment Information System

FLOOD - Main Activities


The lisflood modelling system

LISFLOOD-WBWater balance model

LISFLOOD-FSFlood simulation model

LISFLOOD-FFFlood forecasting model

LISFLOOD-FPFlood Inundation model

The LISFLOOD modelling system

Floodplain-scale

Catchment-scale


Lisflood outputs

LISFLOOD outputs

Discharge

Evapotranspiration – time series

Evapotranspiration

Water Source Areas

Soil moisture storage Capacity


Contact carlo lavalle joint research centre of the ec

EUROPEAN FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM (EFFS)

Flood forecasts for all major rivers:

10 day weather forecasts:

rainfall

temperature

+

LISFLOOD

MODEL

10-day forecast Meuse:

20-30 January 1995

with uncertainty range

discharge forecast

Example of a warning report


Contact carlo lavalle joint research centre of the ec

European Forest Fire Risk Forecasting System (EFFRFS)


Contact carlo lavalle joint research centre of the ec

FIRE POTENTIAL INDEX

Structural Risk

Vegetation Stress Risk

Meteorological Risk

Fire Potential Index


Burnt area and damage assessment portugal 2000

BURNT AREA AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: PORTUGAL 2000


E uropean f orest f ire i nformation s ystem effis

European Forest Fire Information System EFFIS

Modules

Fire Risk

Fire Risk

Customer and user:

Products:

Burnt Areas

EP

  • Cartography

  • Tables

  • Statistics

Regeneration

Member States

Risk zoning

EC

Biomass

CO2 emiss.


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