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Welcome. Russell Shorto. The History of Trade & Amsterdam. Russell Shorto. The History of Trade & Amsterdam. Max van Meer. Managing Director STX Services. STX Services | Amsterdam and Trade. Agenda: What is Trade? Examples Environmental Commodity Markets Market Outlook.

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  1. Welcome

  2. RussellShorto The History of Trade & Amsterdam

  3. RussellShorto The History of Trade & Amsterdam

  4. Max vanMeer Managing Director STX Services

  5. STX Services | Amsterdam and Trade • Agenda: • Whatis Trade? • ExamplesEnvironmentalCommodityMarkets • Market Outlook

  6. STX Services | Amsterdam and Trade • STX Group • 60 employees • 20 nationalities • 1.250 active customers • STX Services • Renewable Energy • Biofuel • Carbon • CSO • Energy Efficiency • STX Fixed Income • Bonds • Loans • Cash

  7. STX Services | Amsterdam and Trade Whatistrade?

  8. STX Services | Amsterdam and Trade Free Online Oxford Dictionnaires: 1 [mass noun] The action of buying and selling goods and services

  9. STX Services | Trade Price development of a randomasset

  10. STX Services | Trade Everyonewants to buyhere…

  11. STX Services | A little history And sellhere…

  12. STX Services | Trade The factisthatwe are heretoday…

  13. STX Services | Trading decisions

  14. STX Services | Trading decisions • Whatis important: • Timing • Marketaccess

  15. STX Services | Timing ? • Passive trading strategies • Buywhenyouneedit(whatever the priceis) • Buyalways at the same date (whatever the priceis)

  16. STX Services | Timing • Active trading strategies: • Average out price • Activelytry to optimizeprice • Speculative (prop) trading

  17. STX Services | Timing • Market intelligence • Marketfundamentals • Technical analyses

  18. STX Services | Market Access Marketaccess Today (imagine 100 counterparties…)

  19. STX Services | Market Access Marketaccess Today Tomorrow (imagine 100 counterparties…)

  20. STX Services | Amsterdam and Trade Timing in CommodityMarketsthat are driven by regulation

  21. STX Services | GOO – one year ago • Whatdidwe know? • Natural trend: 12-month expiry(but to whatlevel?) • Marketwas long • Last yearaverageprice EUR 25ct ?

  22. STX Services | GOO – what actually happened • Market: France joined system (supplyincreasedfrom 250mio to 300mio) • Averageprice EUR 12ct

  23. STX Services | CSO - one year ago • Whatdidwe know? • Oil market determines CSO value (backwardation vs contango) • New EU directive: all countries have to accept each other (but unclear on what type of product) • Average price level: USD 2.5 ?

  24. STX Services | CSO – what actually happened • Marketstarted at premium due to unclearlegislation • Pricescontinued to normal pricelevels (USD 2-3) afterclarity

  25. STX Services | Carbon - one year ago • Whatdidwe know? • Marketwasoversupplied • Marketwaswaiting for EU decision to take out excesssupply • Start of Phase III • 85% free allocation instead of 100% • Rest to buy via governmentsauction ?

  26. STX Services | Carbon – what actually happened • Impact of Phase III: • Industrialsdid not receive allocation till December 2013 • Mainlytechnicalprop trading (12 players) • One bigevent: ‘ EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT REJECTS CARBON-LAW FIX PROPOSAL’ (price drops 45% in one day)

  27. STX Services | Certificate Verdi – one year ago • Whatdidwe know? • Producerscansell to government at guaranteedprice end of year • Calculation: (EUR 180 – AEP) x 78% • Spot market: expectedguaranteedpricediscountedwithinterest rate ?

  28. STX Services | Certificate Verdi – what actually happened • Market drivers: • Upward trend towards buy-back price as expected • Decline in December?

  29. STX Services | Certificate Verdi – what actually happened • What if we compare with last year…

  30. STX Services | Conclusions • First conclusions: • Understanding regulation can predict trends • Constant threat of regulatory changes (can have a quick and significant impact) • Markets make unexpected movements

  31. STX Services |What will move these price graphs? • (28 EU member states….) • ‘Energiewende’ in Germany • Shale gas in US • Subsidizing local industry? • Cost of the system (Windfall profits, adverse incentives, Fraude) • Court case ‘ÅlandsVindkraft’ • Only carbon targets…? • The outcomes of above discussion will lead to changes in regulation, that will affect prices

  32. STX Services |Main Conclusion • You need to cooperate with the best (Environmental) Broker company in Europe • STX Group • STX Services • STX Fixed Income

  33. STX Services | THANK YOU!

  34. Max vanMeer Managing Director STX Services

  35. Drinks &Dinner Now: Drinks & Bites at EYE 18h30 Boat trip with Dinner & Cocktails 21h00 Stopover at NDSM 23h00 Boat return at Amsterdam Central Station

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