Meeting Carbon Promises: a (partial) Report Card on the Wedges

4. Meeting Carbon Promises:a (partial) Report Card on the Wedges We often hear increases expressed in ‘annual percentages’. How to understand these for CO2 and project into the future. What is going to fill the growing gap between expected CO2 emissions and political promises? How are we doing on this? Will failure to meet widely stated goals have consequences? All power point images are only for the exclusive use of Phys3070/Envs3070 Spring term 2014

5. Compound interest If CO2 emissions increase at 5% per year, how much of an increase will that be in 20 years? NOT 20*1.05 = 21! NOT 1+(20*0.05) = 2.00!

6. Moment-by-moment or annual dN/dt = Rate ( per year) * N N=N0 e+(rate * years) If rate = 5% per year= 0.05 /year, t = 20 years N=N0 e+(0.05/yr*20 yr) = N0 e+1 = 2.71828 NO, (enter the exponent=1, then the inverse then ln buttons) With N0 the starting number. An increase by a factor of 2.72 OR – easier– ‘annualize’ N = N0 (1+rate) #years = N0 (1.05)20 = 2.6533 N0, a factor of 2.65. Use the y xbutton, with y=1.05, x=20

7. 2.(10) If coal burning continues to increase at 6% per year, how many tons of CO2 will be dumped into the air 30 years from now? Use your answer to #1. This is a ‘compound interest’ problem, as discussed in class and in the posted ‘not in the text’ notes. A good way to answer this is from https://investor.gov/tools/calculators/compound-interest-calculator#UxoUDD=xpX8. No ‘additions’, and one computation per year.

8. The CO2 Icon Much of the concern about the effects of the industrial revolution on our global environment has been focused on carbon dioxide, and most political statements and agreements have treated solely this one gas. How are we doing on achieving stated numerical goals?

9. The accepted assumptions- • Anthropogenic carbon burning is adding net CO2 to our atmosphere. • Continuing and spreading the benefits of energy within the Industrial Revolution is desired, and burning fossil fuels is the primary way to do this. • This CO2 will create global climate change, harmful to many societies, perhaps most, after some concentration is reached. Ergo--Enjoyment of a continuing energy future and having a suitable climate require replacing fossil fuel burning by other ‘clean’ energy sources.

11. The solution-- Global agreements to diminish CO2 emissions without losing the benefits of the industrial revolution. and/or Keep emitting CO2, but keep it out of the atmosphere, geoengineering--Friday.

12. The problem is hard-- • Burning fossil fuels is cheap and familiar. • We face no immediate shortage of these fossil fuels. • Many societies have few or no alternatives to burning fossil fuels for needed development. • Renewable energies are largely in a developmental stage, and expensive to deploy. Some will fail to meet expectations. • We burn a LOT of fossil fuel. • CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a long time---effects linger.

13. More problems- • We do not know how much CO2 will be emitted! This depends on the global economy, which depends on fossil energy sources. The target of our reductions is unknown. • CO2 drives only about 60% of the expected climate change. • The assumed causalities derive from complex models and calculations. • Leaders have accepted a CO2 ‘cap’ of 450 ppm, which would lead to an average 2 deg C temperature increase.

15. 9 GT !

16. IPCC IPCC

18. IPCC

19. Promises-- • European Commission 2050 Road Map (March 2011) Decrease EU carbon emissions by 20% by 2020, 40% by 2030, 60% by 2040, 80% by 2050. (all relative to 1990) (www.upi.com/Top_News/World_News/2011/06/22 • Blue Map, accepted by the G8/Hokkaido Meeting (2008) 50% of 2005 emissions by 2050 (www.iea.org/G8/2008/G8_Towards_Sustainable_Future.pdf) • Kyoto Protocol, Annex 1 nations to decrease GHG by 5.2% from 1990 levels by 2012.

20. Strategies in Practice- • Make it expensive to emit carbon—taxes or cap and trade. • Provide new technologies for energy sources. • Plant a lot of trees. • CCS= Carbon Capture and Sequestration • Think of something else. • All of the above.

21. Wedges BAU

22. For a constant level.

23. //cmi.princeton.edu

24. G8 BAU IEA for the Hokkaido G8 meeting

25. Required yearly rate of CO2 reduction Socolow graph for constant CO2: (50-25=25) Gt CO2/yr in 50 years Divided among seven wedges Each must increase savings by 70 Mt CO2/year for a passing grade. G8 Blue Map reduction to 50% of 2010 emissions Each of eight wedges must avoid 160 Mt/yr. for a passing grade. IN FACT, total global CO2up 4.4% per year since Socolow (2010/2007), +5.8% in 2010/2009 after the economic dip.

26. Energy intensity

27. IEA: Towards a Sustainable Energy future IEA

29. Energy Intensity Math Average slope down, -1.1% / year since 1993 -1.1% of 33.16 Gt = 368 Mt of CO2 Or -1.3%/year since 1949=431 Mt/yr Or IEA 58% in 30 years=-1.9% =641 Mt/year Target to pass=70-160 Mt/year Grade=solid A

30. Fuel switching Burning gas gives about twice as much energy per ton of CO2 as coal. Therefore coal consumption must drop, replaced by gas.

31. Coal EIA Global Energy Outlook 2011

33. We burn more coal, not less • In 2010 up 7.6%, a new record rate of change (BP) • 29.6% of global energy, highest since 1970 (BP) • The source of 45% of global CO2 • Increase 7.6% of 45% of 33.16 Gt= +1134 Mt/yr • Target -70-160 Mt/yr, decrease. • Grade=solid F

34. Renewables=Bio, Geo, Hydro, Solar, Wind Geothermal + 2.6% Hydro +1.6% ( droughts) Biomass +13.8% Wind +25.8% Solar +58% Overall +17.7%, to 4.7% of global power (all as 2010/2011, BP 2012) To 4.7% of global energy, compared to 0.6% in 2000. 17.7% of 4.7% of 33.16 Gt=276 Mt/yr (target 70-160 Mt/yr) (grade A)

36. Biofuels- for transport • Tripled from 2005 to 2010! Or 25%/year • Only 1.8% of transport, which is 27% of all energy • 25% *1.8%*27%*33.16 Gt/year=40 Mt/year • (Last year, -0.4%) • Target 70-160 Mt/yr • Grade = C-

37. Carbon sinks= trees UN/FAO estimates a net loss of 7.3 million ha per year, out of a global forest area of 3952 million ha. A loss of 0.18% per year 0.18% * 33.16 Gt/year = 61 Mt of CO2/year, in the wrong direction! Grade = F

38. Report cardin millions of metric tonnes of CO2 per year(each ‘owes’ 70 to break even, total 490) Efficiency=Energy intensity: 368/341 Or OECD plant efficiencies: 640 Fuel switching=coal to gas: (1134) CCS : 5 Nuclear: (86) Renewables: 276 Biofuels: 40 Carbon sinks: (61) Total: (negative 592-865)

42. Result? CO2, as the one iconic measure of climate change, has continued to increase. Promises continue to lower the expected levels of CO2 even further. Some of the stated dates are nearing.

43. Efficiency pays in both $$ and CO2. • Cost—the last increments will be expensive. • Climate change– uncontrolled, so we must begin to adapt. • Disappointment, but with whom? When? • Scienctists, ‘Big Business’, the industrial world, the rising industrial nations, those who made the promises?

44. 4. (15) Your company has had a recent rush of new orders, and you need to burn more coal to meet the demand. You need a permit for 10,000 tons of SO2 to avoid fines from the EPA when you burn this coal. How much will you pay for this permit? Check the ‘spot price’ at www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/details.cfm?id=1330. Is this a low or a high price? Why does it differ from the price a few years ago? 5.(10) What is the IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? What is their mission? To whom do they report? What authority do they have?

45. Friday GeoEngineering- Use our technical expertise to get rid of CO2 and/or warming while continuing the Industrial Revolution