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Pacific Economic Outlook

Pacific Economic Outlook. HONG KONG. 2005 and 2006. PEO. Real GDP Growth in the past 10 years. Average 3.3% 1.0% 8.4% 3.1%. PEO. Real GDP Growth Rate Forecasts. PEO. Real GDP Growth Forecasts. 2004. Strong Growth in 2004.

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Pacific Economic Outlook

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  1. Pacific Economic Outlook HONG KONG 2005 and 2006

  2. PEO Real GDP Growth in the past 10 years Average 3.3% 1.0% 8.4% 3.1%

  3. PEO Real GDP Growth Rate Forecasts

  4. PEO Real GDP Growth Forecasts

  5. 2004 Strong Growth in 2004 • Strongest growth in real GDP in about 20 years for the global economy • A sharp rebound in East Asia from 2003, which was marked by the SARS outbreak in parts of the region • Strong growth in U.S. led by very strong domestic demand • China confirmed as a new growth engine for the region • Strong growth in China led by fixed asset investment and consumption • China overtook Japan as the 2nd most important trading partner for many Asia Pacific economies; and overtook the U.S. as Japan’s most important trading partner

  6. 2005 2005 Slowdown • Slower but still robust growth • Further monetary tightening • The growth engines – China and the U.S. are both projected to slow down • Investment is projected to continue to decline in China • Higher energy and non-oil commodity prices • Slower growth in Southeast Asia

  7. 2006 2006 Consolidation • Lower oil prices • Tightening monetary policy • Dollar value of the U.S. current-account deficit should start to fall as a share of GDP • Lagged effects of U.S. dollar depreciation should start to show up in higher levels of exports and lower growth of imports

  8. HONG KONG Hong Kong’s Real GDP Growth

  9. HONG KONG Date of Forecast: March 21, 2005.

  10. Domestic Demand Private Consumption Expenditure (volume)

  11. Investment Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation (volume)

  12. Trade Merchandise Trade

  13. Tourism Visitor Arrivals

  14. Tourism Record-breaking performance to be expected • Hong Kong Disneyland will open in September 2005 • Other new infrastructure projects include Hong Kong Wetland Park and Tung Chung Cable Car • An additional funding of HK$470 million will be used by HKTB to implement the 2006 Discover Hong Kong Year Campaign Source: Hong Kong Tourism Board

  15. Prices Composite CPI (y-o-y % change)

  16. Labour Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

  17. Stock Market Hang Seng Index versus Nasdaq

  18. Property Market Property Price Indices 1999=100

  19. Property Market Residential Mortgages Loans in Negative Equity

  20. Risks Risk: Depreciation of US dollar USD Trade Weighted Index – Broad Jan 97 = 100

  21. Risks • A further widening imbalance in trade and financial flows (current-account deficit in U.S. vs. current-account surpluses in many East Asian economies) • U.S. current-account deficit expected to reach a record US$775 billion or 6.1% of GDP by year end • PEO forecasts a fall in the trade-weighted US dollar of 6.1% in 2005 and 5.6% in 2006 • A sudden loss of confidence in the US dollar could precipitate a disorderly decline in the value of the US currency • The current-account surplus in China will rise from 2.4% in 2004 to 3.1% in 2005 and 3.3% in 2006, fuelling calls for early revaluation of the yuan and fanning protectionist sentiment in industrialized countries

  22. Risks Risk: Interest Rate Increases HIBOR versus LIBOR

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