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THE ANNUAL REPORT Department of Energy

THE ANNUAL REPORT Department of Energy. Profs Lloyd & Uken Energy Institute Cape Peninsula University of Technology. How did the Department do?. It passed! It scored 31% That means it got more than twice as much wrong as it got right!

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THE ANNUAL REPORT Department of Energy

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  1. THE ANNUAL REPORTDepartment of Energy Profs Lloyd & Uken Energy Institute Cape Peninsula University of Technology PPC Energy October 2012

  2. How did the Department do? • It passed! • It scored 31% • That means it got more than twice as much wrong as it got right! • As the Headmaster would say “Could do better – much better!” • Let’s look at some examples PPC Energy October 2012

  3. Our vision • A transformed and sustainable energy sector with universal access to modern energy carriers for all by 2014. • Improving our energy mix by having 30% clean energy by 2025. • Good! But the first is not achievable, AND • Something is missing from both • ENOUGH ENERGY! PPC Energy October 2012

  4. Enough energy? • IRP2010 was approved by Cabinet in March 2011 • The Department has a clear remit • It was presented with a roadmap for meeting the demand forecast PPC Energy October 2012

  5. Enough energy? ? PPC Energy October 2012

  6. Enough energy? • Rounds 1 & 2 of REIPP have set in motion the 2100MW of installed renewable energy • Good - - BUT • It will only yield on average about 500MW • Our demand goes up by 800MW annually • There is progress on 3200MW nuclear • OK - - but slow! PPC Energy October 2012

  7. Enough energy? • No progress on 4320MW of conventional energy • Which would yield 3600MW on average • Enough for over 4 years growth • Give the Department 500MW renewable, 1100MW nuclear, 1600MW total • Score 1600/ (1600 + 3600) = 31% PPC Energy October 2012

  8. But why worry? • Can’t we get by with saving electricity? • And can’t we improve the efficiency of use? • Yes - - we can, BUT • We need to grow the economy • And that means more energy PPC Energy October 2012

  9. That means more energy • There is a DIRECT relation between the wealth of a nation and the amount of energy it uses • It is one of the strongest economic relationships known • The International Energy Agency uses it to make forecasts • Their predictions of 25 years ago are within 10% PPC Energy October 2012

  10. That means more energy PPC Energy October 2012

  11. That’s why we worry • Being short of energy means • Being short of growth • Being short of jobs • Being poor • Being ill-fed • Having a short life • That’s why we worry about a Department that only just passes PPC Energy October 2012

  12. And the long-term vision? • Improving our energy mix by having 30% clean energy by 2025. • Good - - but • All the Department’s effort goes into producing clean energy • We need to worry about HAVING clean energy PPC Energy October 2012

  13. Having clean energy • Means having clear air over the Highveld in winter • Which means addressing the domestic use of coal • Which means having far fewer dying of CO poisoning • And the Department is making no progress on this PPC Energy October 2012

  14. Having clean energy • Means being able to cook and heat the home without indoor air pollution • Which means affordable sources of clean energy • And cheap electricity isn’t the answer • LP gas might be • And the Department is making minimal progress on this PPC Energy October 2012

  15. Having clean energy • Means having less shack fires • Which destroy about 50 000 homes annually • Means burning less children • Spend a morning at the Red Cross hospital and you will see the problem • And the Department is making no effort in this direction PPC Energy October 2012

  16. Having clean energy • Means having clean fuels for our cars • And the Department is making slow progress on this • Score 1.5 out of 5 – 30% ? PPC Energy October 2012

  17. Is a pass good enough? • There is some basis for our marking • Could the Department do better? • Should it do better? • Does it really recognize how important energy is to our development? • Does it really understand how important energy is to our people’s wellbeing? • You be the judge! PPC Energy October 2012

  18. Thank you for your kind attention! lloydp@cput.ac.za ukene@cput.ac.za PPC Energy October 2012

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