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Hurricane Hazard Depiction for Standardized Air Force Weather Forecast Charts Capt Kevin LaCroix 1LT Christopher Wireman 28 th Operational Weather Squadron Overview 28 th Operational Weather Squadron SE CONUS mission Hurricane Hazards Turbulence Icing Lightning/Thunderstorms

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Hurricane hazard depiction for standardized air force weather forecast charts l.jpg

Hurricane Hazard Depiction for Standardized Air Force Weather Forecast Charts

Capt Kevin LaCroix

1LT Christopher Wireman

28th Operational Weather Squadron


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Overview Weather Forecast Charts

  • 28th Operational Weather Squadron SE CONUS mission

  • Hurricane Hazards

    • Turbulence

    • Icing

    • Lightning/Thunderstorms


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Advisory/Warning Locations Weather Forecast Charts

TAF Locations

SE CONUS Operations

  • Weather supportto 90 units at 70+ locations (AF, Army, Guard, and Reserve)

  • 22 TAF sites

  • Flight weather briefings

  • 1500+ aircraft supported

  • Flight hazards graphics

  • Tropical Cyclone Threat Assessment


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Air Force Weather Research Weather Forecast Charts

  • Air Force Weather Technical Library (AFWTL) located in Asheville, NC houses nearly 250,000 volumes; serves the information needs of meteorologists, climatologists, space scientists, computer scientists and experts in all other disciplines of interest to military meteorology.

  • Holdings include foreign language documents, that they translate if needed.

  • Requested they search all holdings for Tropical storms, turbulence, icing and severe weather.

  • 88 documents were found in this search including several not held by the AFWTL.

  • All references were either peer-reviewed, or major meteorological publications by AMS, Royal Met. Soc. etc.


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Hurricane Horizontal Structure Weather Forecast Charts

Right Front Quadrant

Left Front Quadrant

Eye -> 5-30km Diameter

Storm Motion

Eyewall -> 5-40km

Inner Rainbands -> Eyewall - 100km

Right Rear Quadrant

Outer Rainbands -> ~150km - 300km

Left Rear Quadrant


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Hurricane Vertical Structure Weather Forecast Charts

Eye/Eyewall

Outer Rainbands

Outer Rainbands

Radius of Eyewall is ~10-15km wider at top than at the surface

Outer rainband Updrafts < 10 m/s

16 km

18 km

Eyewall Updrafts < 8 m/s

Outer rainbands can sometimes include thunderstorms with high CB’s called “Hot Towers” these reach more than 10 miles high, and result in very heavy precipitation

Dry, warm subsiding air

Updrafts


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Hurricane Turbulence Weather Forecast Charts

Light

500

Moderate

CONT

SFC

Severe

Only encounter severe or extreme turbulence in lowest 1km of eyewall

Extreme

Moderate Turbulence only in the strongest convection

Percent Encounter

99.4%

0.5%

0.0015%

0.0000033%


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Hurricane Turbulence Cont. Weather Forecast Charts

Turbulence not prevalent because of lack of shear, both horizontal and vertical

Vertical Cross Section of Hurricane

200

400

Mb Level

500

Cross section location

850

975

Sea Level

20

10

0

10

25

100

300

Area of Shear

Distance from Storm Center


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Hurricane Icing Weather Forecast Charts

Eye/Eyewall

Outer Rainbands *

Outer Rainbands

- 40˚

200

-10˚

Area of possible Icing

Mixed

- 4˚

160

-15˚

Clear

> FL 130

Supercooled Droplets only in strongest updrafts

Average Freezing level

* Different Vertical Scale

Icing mostly clear due to large drop size and lack of supercooled droplets. Weak updrafts also limit icing. Severe Clear icing in eyewall, typically well above research aircraft penetration level.

Updrafts


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Hurricane Icing Forecast Weather Forecast Charts

Icing in hurricanes is all inside thunderstorms. How it could be depicted is shown here. Temperature guidance for more accurate height representation is given on previous page.

500

200

200

160

Severe Clear

Severe Mixed

Icing Potential Area


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Hurricane Lightning Weather Forecast Charts

  • Eyewall Flash Rate: < 60 flashes per 100 sq km/day

  • Inner Rainband: < 20 flashes per 100 sq km/day

  • Outer Rainband: > 300 flashes per 100 sq km/day

  • Typical Thunderstorm: > 36,000 flashes per 100 sq km/day

  • Equates to 4-6 times more chance for lightning in outerband than eyewall

Greatest Flash Density in Right Front Quadrant

Storm Motion

Hurricane Flashes: ~ 4400 per day


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Hurricane Thunderstorm Forecast Weather Forecast Charts

600

600

SCT

NMRS

Thunderstorm Coverage for FITL Chart

520

FEW

350

NSW

ISOLD

Max Tops

550

NMRS

Coverage


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Aviation Hazards on Buttons Weather Forecast Charts


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Tropical Cyclone Forecast Representation Weather Forecast Charts

  • OWS worldwide have standardized map backgrounds, colors, and symbology so that a forecaster will be familiar with any products on a OWS webpage no matter what theater they are in, or what OWS they are at

  • Following slides show designated process for depicting Tropical Cyclones on OWS Charts

  • Process uses 150-300km radius from storm center as area of major outer ring convection.

  • Limitations to depicting features:

    • Forecaster experience – want same “rules” for drawing storms to be worldwide

    • Map Scale – eyewall process to small to accurately draw on our scale

    • Technical limitations to graphics program at OWS, Leading Environmental Analysis and Display System (LEADS)


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Low Level Turbulence Weather Forecast Charts


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Icing Weather Forecast Charts


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Thunderstorms Weather Forecast Charts


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Questions? Weather Forecast Charts

Contact Information:

Capt Kevin LaCroix

28th Operational Weather Sq.

905 Patrol Rd.

Shaw AFB, SC 29152

(803)895-0654

[email protected]


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