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Household projections in Scotland

Household projections in Scotland. Esther Roughsedge General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/household-estimates-projections/index.html. Talk outline. How we produce household projections What they show Potential ways to improve them.

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Household projections in Scotland

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  1. Household projections in Scotland Esther Roughsedge General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/household-estimates-projections/index.html

  2. Talk outline • How we produce household projections • What they show • Potential ways to improve them

  3. Purpose of household projections • Mainly used to inform local authority decisions about future housing and service need • Need to know projected number of households, and type. • GROS produces projections in a consistent way across the country. • Local projections may be used in strategic plans, where this can be justified.

  4. How they are produced • Produced every 2 years, to cover a 20-year period. • Based on population projections; • Subtract communal establishment population (from Census); • Project household composition information from the 1991 + 2001 Censuses.

  5. Categories used • 32 local authorities in Scotland • 7 household types: • 10 age groups for the head of household:

  6. Household composition • ‘Head of household’ = first person on Census form. • The number of heads of households = the number of households. • Headship rates: the proportion of people who head a household within an age group, by household type and LA.

  7. Example of headship rates:Aberdeen, 2001: age 35-44

  8. Aberdeen: households with 2 adults Headship rate × household population = households

  9. Advantages / disadvantages of this methodology • Advantages • Robust • Fairly easy to understand and interpret • The data we require are available • Disadvantages • Based on past trends • Reliant on Census data

  10. Differences from other parts of UK • England and Wales: • Different household types (include marital status, but not necessarily children). • Incorporate Labour Force Survey results. • Include age cohort effects. • Projections produced every 4-6 yrs. • Northern Ireland: • Similar to Scotland, but use household propensities rather than headship rates – based on household size.

  11. Results of household projections for Scotland: 2004-2024

  12. Summary of household projections results, 2004-2024 • Overall number of households up 13%, despite smaller change in population. • Average household size decreasing. • More people living alone. • Ageing population – more households with older people, fewer households with children. • Large geographical variations.

  13. Media coverage • ‘Lonely future for Scots as one-person families soar’- Scotsman • ‘1 in 4 will live alone’ - Herald • ‘City to grow a quarter by 2024’ - Edinburgh Evening News • ‘Church says Labour policies to blame for death of the family’ - Mail

  14. Notes on household projections • Projections are based on past trends. • They don’t take account of future policy initiatives / planned housing developments (or bird flu). • There is some demand to include additional information, e.g., economic predictions, or plans for future housing developments. But it would be difficult to do this consistently.

  15. Potential ways to improve our household projections

  16. Incorporate survey results • Information on household type is based on last 2 Censuses. • Household estimates constrain the figures • But no information on household type • Could include results of surveys (e.g., Scottish Household Survey, Labour Force Survey) to update this at national level.

  17. Different geographic areas • Current household projections are for: • Councils • Structure plan areas • Changes to planning system  need projections for ‘city regions’ and national parks. • Require small area households estimates, to form ‘building blocks’ for projections for different areas.

  18. Other potential improvements • Update communal establishment information. • Review the household types and age groups used. • Produce variant projections?

  19. Future PhD • Ashley McCormick will start a PhD supervised by Paul Williamson on incorporating social trends into household projections. • Combine headship rates at sub-national level with dynamic micro-simulation to project household and family formation. • Experiment with different headship definitions.

  20. Summary: potential improvements • Incorporate survey results to update information on household composition. • Produce projections for different areas. • Update communal establishment information. • Variant projections. • Potential alternatives to projections methodology and headship definitions.

  21. Any questions?

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