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Household Projections for Wales Tony Whiffen

Household Projections for Wales Tony Whiffen. Presentation Outline. Background Broad Methodology - Wales Wales Results / Issues Future Plans. Background. 2003-based household projections for Wales (2006) only available at regional level Last set under DCLG / Anglia Ruskin contract

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Household Projections for Wales Tony Whiffen

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  1. Household Projections for WalesTony Whiffen

  2. Presentation Outline • Background • Broad Methodology - Wales • Wales Results / Issues • Future Plans

  3. Background • 2003-based household projections for Wales (2006) • only available at regional level • Last set under DCLG / Anglia Ruskin contract • Opportunity to develop own methodology 2007-08 • Population and Households • Local Authority level projections • Not constrained Wales NPP ≠∑ 22 Local Authority Projections

  4. Background • Membership method chosen 2008 • 2006-based household projections for Wales published June 2009 • 2008-based set September 2010 • Variant projections • Also National Park projections • Using HOUSEGROUP WALES (forerunner to Derived Forecasts)

  5. Variant Projections • Produced using available variant population projections • High: high fertility and low mortality • Low: low fertility and high mortality • Natural Change only / Zero Migration

  6. Household Estimates • Household Estimates  2010 (Feb 2011) • Based on ONS population estimates not Council Tax estimates • Effectively ‘projected estimates’ • Populations – estimated • Household membership rates - projected

  7. Broad Methodology • Use Membership Rates • Household types based on size and presence of children • Census data used to project membership rates • APS considered but rejected • Outputs broken down by household type

  8. The Membership Method • Formula: where hi = total households in year i t = household type ag = age and gender group popagi = population in age and gender group ag in year i commagi = communal establishment population in age and gender group ag in year i yagti = membership rate for age and gender group ag and household type t in year i sizet = household size for type t

  9. Household Types

  10. Age Bands

  11. Membership Rates • Data from 1991 and 2001 Censuses used as APS/LFS data not suitable • Two point exponential model used as a result: where i = the year yi = membership rate in year i k = 1 if y2001 ≥ y1991 0 if y2001 < y1991 a = y1991 – k b = (y2001 – k)/(y1991 – k) xi = (i – 1991)/(2001 – 1991)

  12. Membership Rates – Range

  13. Membership Rates: Largest increases/decreases

  14. Projected Households, Wales

  15. Projected Total Population, Wales Source: Government Actuary’s Department / ONS

  16. Future Plans • Look at Migration assumptions in LA Population Projections • Assess projections vs 2011 Census results • Analysis of ‘actual’ vs ‘projected’ 2011 figures • Third point to project household trends from • New Assumption for Communal Establishments population

  17. Future Plans • Shorter time lag between LA Population and Household Projections • Membership rate variants ?

  18. Further information www.wales.gov.uk/statistics Email: stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk Phone: 029 2082 1595

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