Evacuation Models and Dynamics Texas Southern University

1. CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting: January 31 – February 1, 2013 Evacuation Models and Dynamics Texas Southern University Center for Transportation Training and Research Carol Abel Lewis, Ph.D., Professor Sandra Onyejekwe, Graduate Student

2. Discussion • Project Overview • Project Relevance • Method of Approach • Progress to Date • Current Translation Activities & End Users • Looking Forward

3. Project Overview • Design a Geographic Information System (GIS) network and apply TRANSIMS model. • Investigate strategies that will relieve IH 45 congestion and get residents out of harm’s way during an emergency evacuation. • Calculate traffic movements. • Enrich the dialog of decision makers as to their options to manage evacuation traffic.

4. PROJECT RELEVANCE • The Gulf Coast and portions of the eastern people. U.S. are highly prone to hurricanes which require evacuation of thousands of people. • DHS’ goal to improve disaster response is a focus of this research.

5. Project Relevance (cont.) • Traffic volumes and routing from the simulation will advance knowledge for coastal communities that are susceptible to hurricane or other weather events. • Better information available to decision makers can facilitate moving civilians from environmental hazards.

6. Year 5 Method of Approach Year 4 Develop temporal and spatial dynamic evacuation demand for Houston base evacuation conditions. Validate Houston base model and adapt evacuation model for Houston-Galveston per the backdrop of Hurricane Rita in 2005. Prepare for conversion of Houston data to GIS-format (per previously collected New Orleans data) and be included in ESRI Geodatabase . Solicit advisement from workshop attendees (specifically HGAC, TxDOT and Harris and Galveston Counties) about evacuation of vulnerable populations to potentially include bus based component to simulation.

7. Progress Toward Year 5 MILESTONE Progress to Date Progress Towards Year 4 MILESTONE Two evacuation scenarios have been successfully run. One emphasizes greater use of arterials as a complement to freeways for evacuation. The second assesses an incentive for evacuees to leave early by reducing one freeway options for later evacuees. Develop network layer for transit service from Galveston zones. GIS network completed with all activity zone locations based on Galveston Transit system is complete.

8. Proposed Activity Based on advisement of stakeholders, a bus based evacuation plan for vulnerable populations will be assessed using simulation software.

9. End Users • HGAC • TxDOT • Harris County OEM • Galveston County OEM

10. Current Translations Hosted a symposium at Houston Galveston Area Council regarding the results of this research. Attendees: HGAC Harris and Galveston County OEM Texas Department of Transportation

11. Symposium Feedback • Simulation of small area within the region has merit. • OEM would not deliberately close IH45, but extreme value in case of emergency closure. • Greater use of arterials is an option to improve distribution of traffic.

12. Product & Looking Forward Product: Multi-modal, regional evacuation travel model and simulation tool for large-scale disasters. Looking Forward: • Year 5 will create a new network for Zone A (Galveston vicinity) that will be designed to assess transit as another evacuation option. • Year 6 will examine utilization of the HOVs for evacuation from Zone A.

13. Initial Galveston Transit Routes: Year 5

14. We appreciate the opportunity to present our research.

15. CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting Presentation Guidelines • Project Overview– Present a concise “elevator speech” to describe your project (~2 min) • Project Relevance to DHS S&T Mission/Impact of Project– Indicate how the project benefits the Homeland Security Enterprise; Describe the before-and-after impact of your research (~1 min) • Technical Approach– Provide a concise description of the methods used to accomplish the goals of your research (~2 min) • Progress to Date– Indicate progress and accomplishments toward meeting milestones (~3 min) • Current Translation Activities and End Users – Describe translation activities and end users with whom you are connecting (~2 min) • Products– Indicate products (e.g., papers, training materials, models, software, technical reports) resulting from your project (~1 min) • Looking Forward -- What do you hope to accomplish during the remainder of Year 5 and Year 6 (pending funding)? How will you wrap up your project? (~1 minute) • Images – include at least one image that illustrates your project; additional images are encouraged