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Load Forecasting within Vermont & New England

Load Forecasting within Vermont & New England. Docket 7081 workshop 9/13/05. What forecasts exist?. ISO-NE publishes annual forecasts within their Capacity, Energy, Loads and Transmission report (CELT) This report now includes forecasts for all of New England and by state

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Load Forecasting within Vermont & New England

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  1. Load Forecasting within Vermont & New England Docket 7081 workshop 9/13/05

  2. What forecasts exist? • ISO-NE publishes annual forecasts within their Capacity, Energy, Loads and Transmission report (CELT) • This report now includes forecasts for all of New England and by state • The DPS has from time to time created a state-wide load forecast, with the last one created in 2002 • VELCO examines, on a regular basis, historic information for comparison against existing forecasts 9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop

  3. What methodologies are used in these forecasts • ISO-NE uses information provided in FERC 715 submittals to create a state by state, and with historical load information, creates a load database which is then weather normalized to provide regional and state peak load forecasts • This forecast includes a set of predicted peak loads for the potential spectrum of weather • ISO-NE’s methodology is available at: • http://www.iso-ne.com/trans/celt/fsct_detail/index.html 9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop

  4. What is the latest ISO-NE forecast for New England? 9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop

  5. How do the latest Vermont peak load forecasts compare? 9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop

  6. What is the historic data VELCO would use for a forecast? 9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop

  7. What might the short-term trend be? 9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop

  8. What information can VELCO provide to assist this process? • VELCO has VT-wide load information from 1991 to today • VELCO has detailed information within the state from 2002 to today • Can examine load trends in specific areas within the state based on subtransmission information VELCO now has • Can correlate the load information with temperature information we are collecting around the state • This information will be used to provide better information to the ISO-NE and DPS forecasting efforts 9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop

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