African agriculture, where now

1. African agriculture, where now?

2. The challenges to African Agriculture We all know what the challenges are: Lack of investment A competitive global marketplace Poor soil fertility Poor infrastructure � leading to high operating costs Many pests and diseases Poorly supported institutions Above all perhaps, the wrong development policies Let�s look at the policies, because that�s where the changes are happening �

3. The policy chickens have come home to roost Much of what the international community has said about agriculture and development over the last 25 years is wrong Many experts and some institutions now admit this, but it�s still difficult to get an open admission by major donors and international institutions Let�s look at some of the mistakes �

4. Development theory suggested that agriculture is not a major engine of growth Wrong: recent studies, reviewed by IFPRI, show that agriculture is important to growth Agriculture is especially important during the early stages of economic development. Data for 62 developing countries for the period 1960 to 1990*, shows that growth in agricultural productivity is quantitatively important in explaining growth in GDP per worker. *[Gollin, Parente, and Rogerson (2002)]

5. Smallholder agriculture is inefficient Wrong: numerous empirical studies have examined the contribution of smallholder farming to agricultural growth They have shown that small farms contain poverty by providing an affordable platform from which poor households can experiment with ways to improve their livelihoods help prevent premature urban migration and the explosive growth of large cities By contrast, the trickledown benefits from large-scale commercial agriculture are usually more limited Refs: IFAD 2001; Lipton 2004 Eastwood, Lipton, and Newell 2004; Hazell 2004.

6. Globalization will be good for growth Wrong: UNCTAD 2008 report Economic Development in Africa: �The dissolution of marketing boards added price risks to the uncertainties of rain-fed agriculture. �Much of Africa continues to be dependent on traditional bulk agricultural commodities for a major share of its export earnings. �Paradoxically, African countries have been losing market share to other developing countries even in exports of these commodities.� �Export performance in African countries following trade liberalization has been disappointing. �The overall trade balance in African countries has deteriorated since liberalization�.

7. Developing countries should concentrate resources on industrial growth Wrong: Yang and Zhu (2004) demonstrate that, without raising agricultural productivity, a traditional economy cannot overcome the fixed supply of natural resources and therefore cannot sustain the growth process. Irrespective of the pace of nonagricultural growth, stagnant agricultural production during the early stages of development prevents structural transformation from a traditional to a modern economy.

8. Governments should not subsidize agriculture Wrong: the most successful agribusiness countries support their farmers Some Recent headlines:

9. Brazil govt. gives coffee subsidies

10. Colombian govt. aids growers

11. India to spend 1.05 bln rupees on coffee replantation & processing

12. Vietnam plans $2 billion investment in coffee by 2020

13. Africa�s lost decades At beginning of 1980s African states had a very clear idea of what their economies and societies needed in order to flourish In the Lagos Plan of Action (April 1980), heads of state called for a type of economic growth disconnected from the world market, relying on Import substitution policies Food sovereignty Trade within Africa Reduction in the level of external indebtedness World Bank disagreed � 1981 Borg Report said that state interference in the smooth functioning of the market was the cause of low growth The Bank�s view prevailed Stuffed 150Stuffed 150

14. How can we help African agriculture prosper? We need to get the message out on how important agriculture is to Africa We need to objectively assess our natural resources and determine their strengths and weaknesses and then match to our needs We need a comprehensive strategic plan for each country/region about how we are to sustainably use our lands Governments must take the lead � the age of market fundamentalism is over and the role of government is going to become more important � the US is leading this trend Donors should surely welcome well-argued, scientific cases for firm and responsible action to promote sustainable agriculture in this continent

15. How can we help African agriculture prosper? It�s going to be a very difficult balancing act to determine what parts of our respective countries should be dedicated to food production, cash crops, biofuels environmental services. We need a comprehensive plan

16. We should take a look at what others have done Brazil is the pre-eminent agribusiness country Agricultural losses in the mid 1990s were limiting the development of Brazilian agriculture. These losses were caused by two main factors: excessive rain during the harvest period (30% of all cases) dry spells during the reproductive (flowering and grain-filling) stage (60% of all cases) (Rosseti 1997). These losses were related to a poor knowledge of rainfall distribution that led the farmers to plant after the first rainfalls of spring.

17. Brazilian government took firm action To decrease climatic risks, Brazil started a programme of agricultural zoning in 1996 Defined planting calendars for rice, beans, corn, soybean, wheat, cotton, coffee, fruits, based on simulation of cumulative water balance. Calendars were developed from mapping of climatic zones, with data from agronomic studies Calendars were calculated from simulation models to gauge the water supply during the reproductive stage and harvest period Agricultural zoning is now part of federal farm credit policy � funds mainly from the Bank of Brazil So farmers don�t get credit if they plant the wrong crop at the wrong time

18. We must learn from successfulproject Brazil has carefully looked at the causes of their problems Created strategies and models to remedy the problems And the government has provided large subsidies and credit to make it happen They don�t care about economic ideology when it comes to supporting their own farmers which they know to be a vital engine of growth and stability Brazil is now in the global top three position for 10 agricultural exports Brazilian agribusiness GDP is about US$165 billion/year, while national GDP is about U.S.$449 billion/year (IBGE 2005) Agriculture there is a major driver of the country�s economic growth

19. Strategic planning There are literally thousands of studies on all aspects of African agriculture, pointing to the shortcomings and the solutions But there is little in the way of consolidation and deliberation on what to do with the information, and how to project it forward The climate modellers have shown the way, but we can�t wait 20 years for elegant models to emerge We need to get on with structuring our knowledge and making some best guesses and assumptions Millennium Ecosystem Assessment of 2005, set up by Kofi Annan has used this approach E.g. scenario building

20. Scenario planning is appropriate for systems in which there is a lot of uncertainty that is not controllable. In a world of climate change, there is increased uncertainty, so we need to build this into any though processes we employ In other cases optimal control, hedging, or adaptive management may be appropriate responses. Scenarios are a type of systems model that can be used to better understand the dynamics of social-ecological systems. They have some key differences from traditional, technically driven models. They are user-driven and can be developed in discussion with various stakeholders, they are flexible, accessible, and easily translated into art, and they can be non-quantitative, partially quantitative, or fully quantified (Alcamo 2001;Table 2). Scenarios are often used as a tool for decision making or planning. The intention of scenario planning is to consider a variety of possible futures that include the important uncertainties, rather than to focus on the accurate prediction of a single outcome (Van der Heijden 1996; Peterson et al. 2003a).Scenarios are a type of systems model that can be used to better understand the dynamics of social-ecological systems. They have some key differences from traditional, technically driven models. They are user-driven and can be developed in discussion with various stakeholders, they are flexible, accessible, and easily translated into art, and they can be non-quantitative, partially quantitative, or fully quantified (Alcamo 2001;Table 2). Scenarios are often used as a tool for decision making or planning. The intention of scenario planning is to consider a variety of possible futures that include the important uncertainties, rather than to focus on the accurate prediction of a single outcome (Van der Heijden 1996; Peterson et al. 2003a).

21. Scenarios get us started

22. Simple models help Mateete Bekunda�s model of banana-based cropping in Uganda � discovering farmers� responses to soil fertility declines Farmers� responses to soil fertility decline in banana-based cropping systems of Uganda Mateete Bekunda February 1999 Managing Africa�s Soils No. 4 Farmers� responses to soil fertility decline in banana-based cropping systems of Uganda Mateete Bekunda February 1999 Managing Africa�s Soils No. 4

23. Surveys help We have massive amounts of data about the nature of problems E.g. land degradation CAB International 2008. Conserving Land, Protecting Water (eds D. Bossio and K. Geheb) CAB International 2008. Conserving Land, Protecting Water (eds D. Bossio and K. Geheb)

24. Resource maps We have much local knowledge in many forms E.g. Ethiopian farm resource flow diagram, Wolayta, Ethiopia (Alemayehu et al 2001) Scoones soil fertility in AfricaScoones soil fertility in Africa

25. Case histories: Makanyacatchment Tanzania Moved from a productive to a degraded state since the mid-1950s, and combined with an increase in dry spells, led to a decline in soil water index The system crossed a threshold around 1980 and moved into a degraded state. Today agricultural products and other ecosystem services are not generated fast enough to support the population; current resource exploitation trends are eroding productive capacity. There is an opportunity to reverse degradation trends through the use of small-scale soil and water system innovations such as drip irrigation, conservation tillage and water harvesting The Makanya catchment. Left, the study villages; right, the location of the catchment in north-eastern Tanzania. The Makanya catchment. Left, the study villages; right, the location of the catchment in north-eastern Tanzania.

26. The Machakos catchment The upper watersheds of the Athi River basin experienced severe vegetation and soil degradation in the 1930s. Recurrent droughts, depressed crop and livestock outputs created the perception amongst colonial administrators, that the district�s farming systems were unsustainable and in some cases in a state of terminal decline. But by the 1990s, the district�s population had multiplied sixfold, while expanding into previously uninhabited areas (most of them dry and risky). Erosion largely brought under control through many small investments in terracing and drainage, advised by the extension services but carried out by voluntary work groups, and farmers Value of agricultural production per km2 increased between 1930 and 1987 by a factor of six

27. In summary There is a massive amount of data about what is right and wrong about African agriculture We need to build this into positive strategies, based on the evidence and science We can�t rely on the failed dogmas of the past

28. What about coffee then? The combined government-led support of many major coffee countries (Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, India, Mexico) runs to many billions of dollars How can Africa compete with this? Climate change is likely to hit Africa hard, - more droughts, more floods Our soils are old and worn out � low organic matter, low fertility Our tree stock is old and suffering disease

29. Taking the lead on agriculture It is very difficult for any one country, with conflicting demands from its population continuing expansion of coffee in Brazil and Vietnam a global economic crisis To take decisions on how much effort and funding to invest in coffee Any decision has to be made on a mix of climate change projections, land use priorities, economics, etc. I suggest that many decision-makers simply lack the necessary tools and knowledge-support to be able to make such decisions

30. Leadership The point is that Africa is going to have to take some very difficult decisions on agriculture which are vital for the livelihoods of their populations We cannot rely on outsiders to tell us what to do according to whatever prevailing dogma is current in the international community We can only rely upon the collective wisdom of our rural communities and our collective knowledge We need the means to be able to convincingly argue our case, based on all available information