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Steven Shultz University of Nebraska at Omaha Website: unorealesate

2010 NIFA Housing Innovation Marketplace, 1/27/2010 Recent (2009) Trends in Single Family Housing Sales Across Omaha. Steven Shultz University of Nebraska at Omaha Website: www.unorealesate.org.

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Steven Shultz University of Nebraska at Omaha Website: unorealesate

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  1. 2010 NIFA Housing Innovation Marketplace, 1/27/2010Recent (2009) Trends in Single Family Housing Sales Across Omaha Steven Shultz University of Nebraska at Omaha Website: www.unorealesate.org

  2. Parts of this research have been supported by a NIFA Housing Study Grant:“Community Development and Property Value Appreciation in Omaha”

  3. Today’s Presentation • SF Price Appreciation Omaha (2006-2009) • SF Loan Types, Omaha: 2000-2009 • Douglas County Foreclosures: 2000-2009 • Sub-Prime Lending (Omaha): 2006-07 • Speculation’ about the causes of Omaha price depreciation & foreclosures • Ongoing research efforts

  4. Alternative Appreciation Calculations 1) Non-Parametric (National Association of Realtors) 2) Repeat Sales (Case & Shiller or OFHEO) 3) Hedonic Regression (Crone & Voith)

  5. Omaha Single-Family Housing Price Appreciation (2000-09)(based on median values of existing homes sales with outliers removed)*(Also: these median estimates are likely more optimistic than hedonic or repeat-sale price indices) • Appreciation Rates • 2006-2008: +2% (vs -4% from Hedonic estimates*) • 2008-2009: -3.6% • 2006-2009: -2.1% • Range of 2006-09 Appreciation (across zip-codes): -10% to +6% * Based on analyses of the median sale prices of 64,700 arms-length existing single-family housing sales in the Omaha Area Board of Realtors multiple listing service database from January 2000 through December, 2000. The study includes the Greater Omaha community (including the cities of: Bellevue, Elkhorn Gretna, La Visa, Omaha, and Papillion). Existing homes are defined as those with an age at the time of sale of less than 2 years. Sales were treated as outliers and removed from the analyses if their sale prices were less than $20,000 or greater than $525,000, and if they contained less than 350 finished square feet of living area or more than 5300 square feet of living area. Sales that were either condominiums or detached homes, or homes within the 100-year floodplain were also dropped. A total of 10,480 sales were dropped from the original sale database ** Hedonic price analyses based on multiple regression from 2000 to 2008 were reported in a previous UNO study (www.unorealesate.org)

  6. Appreciation by Zipcodes(Hedonic Modeling & 2006-2008)

  7. Housing Appreciation by House Value (2006-09)

  8. Sources of Mortgages in Omaha

  9. Government Sponsored Mortgages (2000-2008) % By Market Segment

  10. Percentage of Mortgages that are Sub-Prime by Census Tract - 41lender had at least 25% of their mortgages classified as sub-prime. - 13% of all 2006-2007 mortgages were sub-prime

  11. Default Notices Foreclosures Douglas County Foreclosure Info 2000-2008 • Self-cure rates of 43% (2000-08) • 1.9% if a homes getting notices (07-08) • Price Discounts: Avg: 16%

  12. Foreclosure Notices as a Percentage of Total Housing By Zip Code (2007-2008)warning: these are outdated numbers

  13. Some Speculation

  14. Ongoing Research • Additional Estimates of Price Appreciation (up to 2009) based Hedonic Price Models & Repeat Sales (release by zip-codes) • Price appreciation: tract (cookie cutter) vs. traditional homes • Further Analyses of the nature and impact of serial sub-prime lenders in Omaha • Finishing up the original NIFA project (what factors influence price appreciation)

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