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GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland Dr Carolin Richter, Director, Global Climate Observing System Secretariat. SPACE BASED. In-Situ. The Composition and Scope of the Main Global Observing Systems. GEOSS. WIGOS.

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Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

GEOSS support for IPCC assessments- The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011, WMO, Geneva, SwitzerlandDr Carolin Richter, Director, Global Climate Observing System Secretariat


The composition and scope of the main global observing systems

SPACE

BASED

In-Situ

The Composition and Scope of the Main Global Observing Systems

GEOSS

WIGOS

GTOS

GOOS

GCOS

(GOS AND GAW)


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

The goal of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is to provide comprehensive information on the total climate system, involving a multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and biological properties and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic, cryospheric and terrestrial processes.

(Annex A to 1992 and 1998 WMO-IOC-UNEP-ICSU MOU)


The emergence of human induced climate change as a global science and policy issue

The Emergence of Human-Induced Climate Change as a Global Science and Policy Issue

UNCHE

1972

WCC-1

1979

WCC-2

1990

WCC-3

2009

First

World Climate

Conference

Second / Third

World Climate

Conference

Science

UN Conference

on the Human

Environment

World Commission on Environment and Development

UNGA

1961

WCED

1987

UNFCCC

1992

Copen-

hagen

2009

Policy

Computers

United Nations

General Assembly

World Climate Programme

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

WCP

1979

IPCC

1988

Assessment

Space

Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change

GARP

1967

WCRP

Research

Global

Atmospheric

Research

Programme

World Climate

Research Programme

Observation

WWW

1967

GCOS

1991

World

Weather

Watch

Global Climate

Observing System


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

Adaptation

Mitigation

Climate- sensitive

Sectors

UNFCCC

Interface

Prediction & Information

IPCC

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

GCOS as building block for a Global Framework for Climate Services


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

The GCOS Mission

Observations made in the past have unequivocally demonstrated that the climate system is warming. Climate observation must be enhanced and continued into the future to enable users to:

  • Detect further climate change and determine its causes

  • Model and predict the climate system

  • Assess impacts of climate variability and change

  • Monitor the effectiveness of policies for mitigating climate change

  • Support adaptation to climate change

  • Develop climate information services

  • Promote sustainable national economic development

  • Meet other requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other international conventions and agreements


Continuous improvement and assessment cycle gcos an all domain system

Continuous Improvement and Assessment Cycle GCOS – an all domain system


What needs to be measured gcos essential climate variables ecvs

What needs to be measured ? GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)

Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective)

High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate research (WCRP), climate change assessments (IPCC)

  • Priority list of variables to be observed systematically

    • Initiated in 1995 in The GCOS Plan, then called «principal observations» 

    • Submitted first time 1998 in 1st Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC, Buenos Aires

    • Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective)

    • High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate change assessments (IPCC)

    • Term « ECV » promoted in 2003, 2nd Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC


What needs to be measured gcos essential climate variables ecvs1

What needs to be measured ? GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)

  • Atmospheric

    • Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour

    • Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties

    • Composition –Carbon dioxide, Methane and other long-lived greenhouse gases (N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, SF6 and PFCs), Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors (NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO).

  • Oceanic

    • Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Surface Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton.

    • Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers.

  • Terrestrial

    • River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture.

Blue/bold = largely space-based red = new in 2010 plan


What needs to be measured how to do it

What needs to be measured ? How to do it ?

Implementation Plan up-date in August 2010


Satellite supplement up date in january 2011

What needs to be measured ? How to do it ?

Satellite Supplement up-date in January 2011

Climate Monitoring PrinciplesGuidelines for Datasets and Products

  • In-situ data supplement to the Implementation Plan needed.


Workshop to look at gaps in observations and at gaps in basic science sydney australia october 2007

Workshop to look at gaps in observations and at gaps in basic science, Sydney, Australia, October 2007

Workshop on Space based Architecture for Climatein January 2011

  • ERB

  • Precip

  • Watervapour


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

By whom / by which means ?

  • “network owners”, i.e.,

  • National Meteorological Services

  • National Hydrological Services

  • Research organizations

  • Space agencies

  • Marine / coastal agencies…

How to improve the system ?

  • Promote the actions in the GCOS Implementation Plan

  • Operating a cooperation mechanism

  • Develop Regional Action Plans

  • Advocating national coordination


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

Where are we now ?

Where can you get your data ? www.GOSIC.org (acts as data access service)

ECV WIKIs (GCOS Secretariat, ESA CCI, GOSIC)


Progress report 2004 2008 progress report 2009 2013

Where are we now ?

Progress Report 2004-2008Progress Report 2009-2013 (?)

Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003Third Report on the Adequacy, (?) 2013-2015


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

Where are we now ?

Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003Implementation Plan 2004 and up-date in 2010Progress Report 2004-2008

in support of the UNFCCC

GCOS findings support and contribute also to IPCC, WCRP and Global Framework for Climate Services

Observations for adaptation and impacts


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

Where are we now ?

Demonstrate the socio-economic values of ECVs

How good is the information which is available to you ?Is there any information missing ?What is needed to provide you with adequate information ?


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

Agriculture

and Farming

Fisheries

Forestry

Soil

Water regime,

coastal and

marine protection

Biological

diversity / Ecosystems

Health

Infrastructure,

Transport,

Urban Settlements,

Building

Tourism industry

Energy

industry

Trade and industry

Financial

services

industry

Socio-economic values of climate predictions and projections

2050 and beyond =

Climate Change

(Emission Scenarios)

Strategic thinking about

future trends and scenarios

Set a future trend

Climate change

Decadal 10 yrs

Inter-Decadal (10-20 yrs)

Multi-Decadal (> 20 yrs)

(PDO,AMO,MOC)

Look ahead&

Make plans

> 20 yrs

Long-term planning for

implementing policies

Seasonal, Inter-annual

(ENSO, TBO, Monsoon)

6 months – 5 yrs

Management of quality and quantity;

Protective and regulatory measures

Choose & decide later

6 months –

5 years

Sub-seasonal

Intra-Seasonal

MJO (30-90 days)

up to 6 months

Logistics: scheduling of activities

1 - 6 months

Act now


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

Mapping societal sectors into domain based ECVs

Surface:

Air temperature

Wind speed/direction

Water vapour,

Pressure,

Precipitation,

Surface radiation budget

Upper-air:

Temperature,

Wind speed/direction

Water vapour

Cloud properties

Earth radiation budget

Composition:

Carbon dioxide,

Methane (other GHGs)

Ozone and Aerosol

River discharge

Water use

Ground water

Lakes

Snow cover

Glaciers and ice caps

Ice sheets

Permafrost

Albedo

Land cover(inc.veg type)

FAPAR,

Leaf area index (LAI),

Above-ground biomass,

Soil carbon

Fire disturbance

Soil moisture

Surface:

Sea-surface temperature

Sea-surface salinity

Sea level

Sea state

Sea ice

Surface current

Ocean colour

Carbon dioxide part.p.

Ocean acidity

Sub-surface:

Temperature

Salinity

Current

Nutrients

Carbon dioxide part p.

Ocean acidity

Oxygen

Tracers

Phytoplankton

Agriculture

and Farming

Water regime,

coastal and

marine protection

Infrastructure,

Transport,

Urban Settlements,

Building

Soil

Fisheries

Health

Financial

services

industry

Atmospheric

Observations

Forestry

Biological

diversity /

Ecosystems

Energy

industry

Trade and industry

Tourism industry

Agriculture

and Farming

Water regime,

coastal and

marine protection

Health

Energy

industry

Infrastructure,

Transport,

Urban Settlements,

Building

Forestry

Water regime,

coastal and

marine protection

Financial

services

industry

Agriculture

and Farming

Soil

Terrestrial

Observations

Tourism industry

Trade and industry

Biological

diversity /

Ecosystems

Health

Tourism industry

Energy

industry

Trade and industry

Water regime,

coastal and

marine protection

Fisheries

Infrastructure,

Transport,

Urban Settlements,

Building

Health

Oceanic

Observations

Financial

services

industry

Biological

diversity /

Ecosystems


Up dated implementation plan in brief

Up-dated Implementation Plan:in brief:

  • new ECVs, now 50 (before 44 )

  • reflection on ecosystems (biodiversity)

  • additional focus on reference and super site networks (measurements of several ECVs at one site for a more comprehensive understanding of the ecosystem)

  • cost estimation (additional costs and costs for existing systems)


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

GCOS Progress Report 2004-2008 - Summary

  • Developed Countries:

    • improved climate observation capabilities,

    • limited progress in resolving financial issues related to long-term continuity

  • Developing Countries:

    • limited (in-situ) progress, with decline in some regions,

    • capacity building support remains small in relation to needs

  • Satellite agencies:

    • improved mission continuity and capability

    • increasingly meeting climate needs

  • Progress made, but:

    • Many gaps persist,

    • Continued engagement needed for coordinated implementation and long-term continuity

Summary of progress on all 131 Actions in 2004 GCOS IP


2 satellite supplement up date in january 2011

2. Satellite Supplement – up-date in January 2011

Update 2006 Satellite Supplement to the GCOS IP (GCOS-107)

  • Update detailed GCOS requirements for FCDRs and ECV products in terms of

    • accuracy,

    • stability,

    • temporal/spatial resolution,

    • calibration and validation needs and opportunities,

    • relevant international working groups.

      for Atmosphere, Ocean, Land and Cross-Cutting actions.

  • Expert Meeting, January 10 – 12, 2011, Geneva

    improvements on most of the ECVs, extra sections, e.g., GHGs, precursors, « pressure » emerges now also as space-based observed ECV.

  • Open for public review, March 2011

  • Finalising draft, 2nd Qrt 2011.


Ensuring quality and acceptance of ecv datasets

Ensuring Quality and Acceptance of ECV Datasets

(GCOS Guideline for generation of ECV datasets and products, May 2010)

When generating climate datasets and ECV products, particular attention to:

  • Responds to increasing demand by producers to ensure climate quality / meeting GCOS requirements

  • Ensure transparency (“Say what you do”)


Geoss support for ipcc assessments the gcos assessment cycle 1 4 february 2011 wmo geneva switzerland dr carol

Value of Observations (ECVs) for societal sectors

Agriculture

and Farming

Fisheries

Forestry

Soil

Water regime,

coastal and

marine protection

Biological

diversity / Ecosystems

Health

Infrastructure,

Transport,

Urban Settlements,

Building

Tourism industry

Energy

industry

Trade and industry

Financial

services

industry

Strategic Thinking on how to adapt the relevant policies

2050 and beyond =

Climate Change

(Emission Scenarios)

Land use

Reproductivity capacity of stocks

Compositions& conversion;use of timber

Water reserves

Coastal lines

Shipping ways

Adaption of species; migration; extinction

Construction &

Planning policies

Purchasing&stock

policies

Innovations in technology

Financial

policies

Long-term Planning

Protect&conservehabitats; Design

Landscapes

Design plants to withstand extreme weather

Decadal 10 yrs

Inter-Decadal (10-20 yrs)

Mulit-Decadal (> 20 yrs)

(PDO,AMO,MOC)

Protection of human settlement and infrastructure

Timber yields

Regional shifts

Risk assessment;

new business strategies

Crop

Industry,

breeding

Plan to restock fish,

&fishing methods

Drinking water quality, protection of coastal lines&waterways

Adapt to

of standards for buildings/infrastructure; Investigate into new routes.

Foster research; Connect to sector of infrastructure (green spaces, air corridors in cities..),

Crisis precautions;

Renewable energy;

Alternative energy sources

Sustained soil quality

Revise framework conditions; new/modify business modles

Management

Generation of energy;

New/modify regulations

Seasonal, Inter-annual

(ENSO, TBO, Monsoon)

6 months – 5 yrs

Develop vaccines;

Implement bio-monitoring systems

Crop type&sequence

Stocking rates

Herd management

Health of forest

Timber harvest

Drinking&cooling water; Possibility of shipping

Revision

of standards for buildings/infrastructure;

Make provisions to repair roads and railways.

Provision of labour&

infrastructure

Take precautions by plant safety managers; new legal regulations

Change Fishing area&method

Humus formation

Carbon sequestration

Reduce pollutants and nutrients (initiate legislation)

Logistics: scheduling of activties

Sub-seasonal

Intra-Seasonal

MJO (30-90 days)

up to 6 months

Lead of adequate personnel&material (resources)

Choose Fishing area&method

Harvesting/Planting;

Prevention of fire

Drought, Pest outbreaks

Prevention on floods, droughts, storm surges

Prevention of accidents, injuries or allergies, heat stress, circulation disorders….

Prevention of

accidents and damages

Travel management

Planting/Harvesting

Use of Pesticides/Fertiliser

Lead of adequate

energy supply

Prevention of mud slides, erosion

synoptic


From observations to information to services example of a societal sector agriculture and farming

From Observations to Information to ServicesExample of a societal sector: Agriculture and Farming

Example output parameter:

Climate Observations

(annual means, monthly means)

ECV

Air temperature

Model for

Agrometeorology

Number of days of ice,

frost, summer, heat,

tropical days, tropical nights

ECV

Precipitation

Start of vegetation period

Start of flowering of winter rape

Ripeness of maize

Vernalization (low temp. stimulus)

Model data;

phenological &

meteorological

observations

Planting date

Sowing date

Yield changes

Research


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