International workshop on population projections using census data
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International Workshop on Population Projections using Census Data. 14 – 16 January 2013 Beijing, China. Session VII: Presentation of the results of projections. Guidelines and tools for the preparation of results Presentation of country projections by participants.

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International Workshop on Population Projections using Census Data

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International Workshop onPopulation Projectionsusing Census Data

14 – 16 January 2013

Beijing, China


Session VII:Presentation of the results of projections

  • Guidelines and tools for the preparation of results

  • Presentation of country projections by participants


How to present the results of population projections

  • General guidelines – how to get the message cross

  • Preparing a report

  • Visual aids

  • Presentation Media


Population Projection – Presenting Results

  • Large amounts of data

  • Published in a number of different ways

    • A press release

    • An executive summary

    • A full report, sometimes with a number of annexes.


Getting the message cross

  • Who is your target audience?

Government

???

General public

experts


Getting the Message Cross

  • Why should my audience want to know/read about this?

    • Internet age, short attention span

    • The “snack culture”


Telling a Statistical Story

  • Is there a story?

    • What have you found?

    • How does it impact daily life?

    • Stories:

      • Social security not sustainable for the long term

      • World population growth will occur in urban areas

    • Non-stories:

      X The report is published today...

      X Population projection is prepared …


Telling a Statistical Story

  • Compelling headlines

    • The highest since, the lowest since …

    • Something new

    • The first time, a record, a continuing trend

    • Examples:

      • Gasoline prices hit 10-year high

      • Crime down for a third year in a row

      • July oil prices levelled off in August


Compelling Headlines


Telling a Statistical Story

  • Write like a journalist – the ‘inverted’ pyramid

Right-side-up

Inverted


Telling a Statistical Story

  • Make the number “stick”

    • Don’t peel off the onion, get to the point

    • Avoid proportions in bracket


  • Make the number “stick” (cont.)

    • Avoid changing denominators

    • Reduce big numbers to understandable levels


Technical Report - Elements

  • Title page

  • Table of contents

  • Motivation and objectives

  • Data source and assumptions

  • Findings

  • Conclusions and recommendations


Technical Report - Canada


Technical Report - Canada


Visual Aids

  • Charts

  • Maps

  • Other?


Explaining Assumptions

Source: US Census Bureau


Projected vs Observed


Projections by scenario

Estimated and projected world population according to different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York


Showing the Contrast

Population of Europe, Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa (millions)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York


Pyramid


Pyramid - 2 in 1


Pyramid - Animated


Thematic Maps

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York 2012


Interactive Maps

Source: http://www.planning.sa.gov.au/instantatlas/ageingatlas/atlas.html


Presenting results - Media

  • Printed documents

  • Online presence

  • PowerPoint

  • Movies (YouTube, etc.)

  • Blogs

  • Social media


Presentation of country projection by participants


Thank you


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