1 / 28

The Coming Famine : risks and opportunities for global food security Julian Cribb FTSE

The Coming Famine : risks and opportunities for global food security Julian Cribb FTSE Nuffield International Conference Adelaide, September 30, 2011. Food demand doubles by 2060s. Global food demand. A ‘wicked’ problem. DEMAND: 242,000 more people every day More babies + longer lives

jeff
Download Presentation

The Coming Famine : risks and opportunities for global food security Julian Cribb FTSE

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Coming Famine: risks andopportunitiesfor global food security Julian Cribb FTSE Nuffield International Conference Adelaide, September 30, 2011

  2. Food demand doubles by 2060s Global food demand

  3. A ‘wicked’ problem.... DEMAND: • 242,000 more people every day • More babies + longer lives • Population >10-11 bn • Food demand soars in emerging economies • >600 petacalories/day • Total food demand to double by 2060s CONSTRAINTS: • ‘Peak water’ • ‘Peak land’ • ‘Peak oil’ • ‘Peak P’ • ‘Peak fish’ • ‘R&D drought’ • ‘Capital drought’ • ‘Climate extinction’

  4. Peak water “Current estimates indicate we will not have enough water to feed ourselves in 25 years time...” – Colin Chartres, IWMI Groundwater mining Disappearing rivers Vanishing lakes Shrinking glaciers

  5. Food embodies water... • Total human water use: 7450 cubic kms • We each use 1240t/yr • In a lifetime, we use: 100,000 tonnes

  6. Peak Land : 2001 24% of the world’s land is now degraded 1% of the world’s land is being lost each year. Area per person 3Peak land: FAO

  7. Megacities: mega-risks By 2050... 7.7 billion will live in cities Total urban area = China Urban water use 2800 cu kms Cities cannot feed themselves By 2030...

  8. Nutrients are finite… Peak phosphorus 5 5 Nutrient pollution 5 World P reserves

  9. The Great Waste 5 Food wasted by avg. family in a month. (USDA)

  10. Peak oil: 2006 Algae farms for biodiesel? Peak Oil Food& oil prices are in lockstep

  11. Peak fish: 2004 “The maximum wild capture fishery potential from the world’s oceans has probably been reached .” - FAO

  12. Climate instability 5 4x more drought Global soil moisture forecast 4 Scientific consensus: 15-25% less food

  13. Knowledge drought 35 R&D stagnation

  14. Capital drought • Doubling food production requires $90bn+ a year for 50 years: FAO • Declining market power of farmers due to supply chain globalisation • Displacement of > 1.5 billion small farmers • > Need to rethink the economics of agriculture • > need to change the consumer signal to encourage new investment, sustainable systems, conservation of land, water, crops etc

  15. The food challenge Double global food output with: • halfthe present fresh water • farlessland • nofossil fuels (eventually) • scarceand very costlyfertilisers • lesstechnology • insufficient investment • moredrought,heat& floods.

  16. Future conflicts UK Ministry of Defence threat assessment

  17. Government failures Food prices peak twice in three years. The ‘Coming Famine’ is a succession of shocks 6 ▲ Egypt’s regime change began with food price protests

  18. Migrant tsunami Each year: Refugees - 43m Migrants - 205m

  19. Big challenges = Hugeopportunities ‘When the going gets tough, the tough get going’

  20. Solutions1: reinvent food • Reinvent farming & food systems: sustainable, low-input eco-farming • Reinvent the global diet: kills fewer people, damages less planet • Reinvent cities:torecycle water, nutrients, energy

  21. Solutions 2 • Double food R&D to $80bn globally a year (from $1.6 Tr weapons’ spend) • Invest $80bn to share the food knowledge among farmers, cooks, consumers • Invest $90bn+ a year in new farm & grazing systems • End waste: recycle all organic waste and water into new food & resource industries • Educate people to respect and value food.

  22. Urban farming

  23. Biocultures

  24. New diet: 23,000 edible plants

  25. Rehydrate, revegetate, recarbonise

  26. Solutions: A Food Year • A Food Year in every junior school on the planet • Teach new respect for food: how to eat for health and sustainability OR ? ?

  27. Averting the Coming Famine • Developeco-farming: more food with less water, energy, soil, chemicals • Designdiets for health and sustainability • Create cities that recycle water, nutrients into novel food systems • Inspirecivilisation with a new ethos and respect for food • Reward farmers for their stewardship of the Earth’s resources.

  28. Thank you “The Coming Famine” is published by the University of California Press and CSIRO Publishing. It was supported by the Crawford Fund and Land & Water Australia. https://twitter.com/#!/ComingFamine Debate global food security on: www.sciencealert.com.au/global- Follow The WorldFood Daily on http://paper.li/ComingFamine/1307825702

More Related