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Political Trust in The Netherlands Temporary Dip or Permanent Decline?

Political Trust in The Netherlands Temporary Dip or Permanent Decline?. Mark Bovens Co author: Anchrit Wille. A Sudden Crisis of Trust. The Netherlands used to be the odd case out Steady increase in political trust 1980-2000 Most western democracies: steady decline

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Political Trust in The Netherlands Temporary Dip or Permanent Decline?

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  1. Political Trust in The NetherlandsTemporary Dip or Permanent Decline? Mark Bovens Co author: Anchrit Wille

  2. A Sudden Crisis of Trust • The Netherlands used to be the odd case out • Steady increase in political trust 1980-2000 • Most western democracies: steady decline • Very high levels of political trust • Sudden and sharp decline from 2002 onwards

  3. Trust in cabinet & government1994-2004

  4. Main questions • What is the state of play in 2008? • Permanent decline or temporary dip? • Should we worry about political trust? • What is political trust?

  5. Trust in what? • Government (Overheid) • Cabinet (Regering) • Parliament • Parties • Politicians • Democracy

  6. What is trust? • ‘Government performs well’ (SCP) • ‘Satisfied with the cabinet’ (SCP) • ‘Are you inclined to trust x?’ (Eurobarometer) • Opinions on politicians (NKO/DES)

  7. The state of play • Media reports are invariably bleak • Most are based on non recurrent, single measurements • Biased research or selective reporting • Highly unreliable

  8. Media reports Maurice De Hond after Fitna debate (March 2008): • ‘More than a third of the population thinks the cabinet has lied’ • Lying with statistics

  9. Media reports Maurice De Hond after Fitna debate (March 2008): • ‘More than a third of the population thinks the cabinet lies’ • Lying with statistics • Politieke Barometer: only 17% believed Wilders

  10. Media reports CBS (August 2008) • ‘Sharp increase cynicism about politics’ • Politici beloven meer dan ze waarmaken (DES/NKO November 2006) • 1977: 79% agreed; 2006: 93% • But: ever since 1994 90% or more!

  11. Longitudinal measurements • Same research design, same items • Recurrent data • Long term trends • SCP • Eurobarometer • Dutch Election Studies (NKO)

  12. Longitudinal data SCP: Sociale staat van Nederland • Every two years • Data collection in the fall (Okt-Nov)

  13. Trust in cabinet & government1995-2006 Bron: SCP, De sociale staat van Nederland 2007

  14. Longitudinal data Eurobarometer (EU Commission) • All EU member states • Trust in national institutions • Satisfied with democracy • Data collection April & November

  15. Trust in cabinet, parliament & political partiesThe Netherlands 1997-2008

  16. Trust in cabinet, NL & EU countries1997-2008

  17. Satisfied with democracy1973-2006

  18. Longitudinal measurements Dutch Election Studies (NKO) • Various universities & CBS • Opinions on politicians • Data collection: national election • 1977-2006

  19. Opinions on politicians (NKO/DES 1977-2006)

  20. Temporary dip or permanent decline? • Government: back to level 1990ies • Cabinet: strong increase in 2006/7, followed by decline • Parliament: idem • Parties: back to (relatively low) levels 1990ies • Politicians: slight increase cynicism • Democracy: high trust, long term trend very positive

  21. Conclusions Political Trust • Strong dip 2002-2005 • No permanent decline • 2008: return to levels of early 1990ies • The Netherlands remains a high trust country

  22. But what about the credit crisis? • No longitudinal data available yet • Short term: rally around the flag effect?

  23. Trust economy and cabinet(April 2007 - Dec 2008) Bron: TNS NIPO/RTL Nieuws

  24. But what about the credit crisis? • No longitudinal data available yet • Short term: rally around the flag effect? • Mid term: decline very probable • Strong correlation political and economic trust

  25. Any need to worry? Trust in cabinet • Decline: worrisome for cabinet • Volatile: political barometers/popularity polls • Netherlands remains high trust country Trust in democracy • Decline: would be serious crisis of legitimacy • However: long term trend is positive • Very high levels of trust in democracy

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