The Changing Climate of Ayrshire Your Sustainable Future

1. The Changing Climate of Ayrshire Your Sustainable Future 21st March 2012

2. Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities. Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009) The climate is changing and we need to be ready... ... adaptation means we prepare for the future – to deal with threats and take advantage of opportunities.

3. What do we mean by climate? Weather is what we experience and, as anyone living in Scotland will know, this can vary by the minute, as well as day-to-day and year-to-year. Climate is the average of weather conditions over a long period of time*... while climate change is a long-term trend in climate * World Meteorological Organisation uses a 30-year standard

4. How does this winter’s weather compare? Temperature Rainfall ...with the average between 1971 and 2000 warm & wet Note: Winter = December-February

5. Year-to-Year the Weather Varies cold v. cold avg. warm dry dry dry wet ...recent winters are a good example 2009 2010 2011 2012 Temperature Rainfall

6. Longer term changes in climate... summer temperature rainfall dry wet change from 1961  2006

7. Longer term changes in climate... winter temperature rainfall dry wet change from 1961  2006

8. The global climate trend

9. What do we know about future climate? Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our understanding of climate – and how humans are changing it... ... and we continue to improve on this. Scotland has access to world leading information – the UK Climate Projections - about how our climate is likely to change over this century. http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/

10. The key climate change trends for Scotland are: • Hotter, drier summers • Milder, wetter autumn and winters • We can also expect to see: • Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought • Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events • Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall • Sea level rise

11. Clyde: change in temperature very likely range ...over the 21st century 90% trend = warming 67% 50% 33% Change in Average Annual Temperature (°C) 10% High Emissions (A1FI) River Basin: Clyde Mean Temperature - Annual 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s Southeast England was 2.3°C warmer than the Clyde (in the baseline period 1961-1990)

12. +2.4°C 2050s (+1.5 to 3.6°C) +3.8°C 2080s (+2.5 to 5.5°C) What difference do a few degrees make? Southeast England was 2.3°C warmer than Clyde (in baseline 1961-1990) So summer temperatures likely to be similar to those in south of England by the 2050s... ... and potentially more like those currently experienced in Southern Europe (>4°C) *The projected values are for annual mean temperature under high emissions scenario

13. Although with Rainfall changing as well, we don’t know exactly what the climate of the Ayrshire will be like... ?

14. Clyde: Rainfall in the 2050s Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 90% wetter 67% very likely range 50% 33% wetter 10% Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/day) High Emissions (A1FI) River Basin: Clyde Mean Precipitation - Monthly drier Baseline (1961-1990) winter spring summer autumn

15. The key climate change trends for Scotland are: • Hotter, drier summers • Milder, wetter autumn and winters • We can also expect to see: • Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought • Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events • Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall • Sea level rise

16. Are we loading the ‘climate dice’ for extreme weather events?

17. But how might climate change impact on us?

18. Buildings need to be fit for purpose in a future climate Building will need to cope with more extreme summer temperatures, intense rainfall events and potential changes in wind and storm patterns. Impact on health and wellbeing Reduction in deaths and hospital admissions during cold months – although might exacerbate respiratory diseases Increased use of outdoors in summer – although might be heat-related health concerns Damage infrastructure and disrupt transport networks The potential for disruption due to increased flooding, erosion and landslides, storms and wind, and rising sea levels Impact on insurance costs and the financial sector

19. The Natural Environment Some species might find it hard to cope with climate change – loss (or change) of biodiversity and species migration. Potential for spread of pests and disease not currently widespread. Agriculture and Forestry Crop types might change and longer growing seasons could lead to increased yields – although summer drought is a risk. Potential for spread of pests and disease not currently widespread.

20. How might a landscape change?

21. Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill) Photo-edited by Land Use Consultants

22. Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill) Photo-edited by Land Use Consultants