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Safety Performance Measures. Numbers? Rates? Trends?. ATSIP July 2009. Thomas M. Welch, P.E. State Transportation Safety Engineer Office of Traffic and Safety Iowa Department of Transportation 515 239-1267 [email protected] Reduce the national fatality rate from 1.48 to 1.0

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Safety Performance Measures

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Safety performance measures

Safety Performance Measures

Numbers?

Rates?

Trends?

ATSIP

July 2009

Thomas M. Welch, P.E.

State Transportation Safety Engineer

Office of Traffic and Safety

Iowa Department of Transportation

515 239-1267

[email protected]


2003 shared national goal aashto fhwa nhtsa ghsa fmcsa

Reduce the national fatality rate from 1.48 to 1.0

…One state at a time

2003 Shared National GoalAASHTO, FHWA, NHTSA, GHSA, FMCSA


Safety performance measures

Fatality Rates per 100 Million VMT – 2002

US Avg. = 1.50

1.01

1.20

0.81

1.47

2.60

1.32

1.20

1.26

0.86

1.86

1.37

1.14

2.12

1.95

1.28

1.03

1.54

1.31

1.03

1.64

1.31

1.11

1.09

2.12

1.34

1.34

1.27

2.19

1.70

1.40

1.18

1.80

1.77

1.95

1.23

1.70

1.72

1.33

DC

1.61

2.18

2.13

2.23

1.97

1.41

1.80

2.43

1.69

2.02

1.78

1.76

0.00 to 1.50

1.50 to 2.61

1.34

PR

VI


Safety performance measures

Fatality Rates Can Be Misleading

2.12

SD

1.27

CA

South Dakota’s roads

are safer

than California’s


This phenomenon is known as simpson s paradox

This phenomenon is known as“Simpson’s Paradox”


2006 fatality rates

2006 Fatality Rates

National Iowa Difference

Overall 1.411.40 None

Rural

Roads 2.30 1.80 -22%

Urban

Streets 0.950.80 -16%


Safety performance measures

(1.30) to zero

zero to 0.83

Expected Fatality Rates (Weighted by Distribution of VMT)

Compared to Actual Fatality Rates

(0.76)

(0.16)

(1.26)

(0.54)

0.64

(0.65)

(0.46)

(0.39)

(0.30)

0.06

(0.39)

(0.25)

0.19

(0.08)

0.13

(0.23)

(0.07)

(0.02)

(0.52)

(0.17)

(0.17)

(0.17)

0.81

(0.57)

(0.29)

(0.02)

0.02

0.05

0.23

0.29

(0.33)

0.10

0.19

0.21

(0.15)

0.01

0.29

DC

0.17

(0.06)

0.79

0.23

0.30

0.44

(0.18)

0.12

0.46

0.23

0.34

0.19

0.41

(0.10)

Puerto Rico

Virgin Islands


Current goal

Current Goal

Reduce fatalities by 1/3 from ~ 43,000 to 29,000/ year


State of iowa fatalities and major injuries

State of IowaFatalities and Major Injuries

Which Year Was Safer???


Safety performance measures safety performance measures

Safety Performance Measures Safety Performance Measures

Numbers?

Rates?

Trends?

Thomas M. Welch, P.E.

State Transportation Safety Engineer

Office of Traffic and Safety

Iowa Department of Transportation

515 239-1267

[email protected]

ATSIP

July 2009


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