Theory of Development

1. Theory of Development Garry Jacobs & Robert Macfarlane Seminar on Development Theory Chennai 1997

2. Intellectual Challenge • “Thinking on development is the greatest intellectual challenge of the coming years.” Boutros Boutros-Ghali

3. Observations • Pace of development is accelerating • Malthusian projections have not materialized

4. Development Explosion • 12 fold population growth in 200 years • Urban pop. grew from 3% to 40%

5. “500 yrs Progress in 50 yrs” UNDP • Poverty eradication -- famine, life expectancy, infant mortality, literacy, disease • Since 1950, average global pci has tripled • From 1965-85, real per capita consumption rose 70% in developing countries

6. National Per Capita Output is Doubling Faster than Ever • UK 58 yrs from 1780 • US 47 yrs from 1839 • Japan 24 yrs from 1880s • After WWII • Indonesia -- 17 yrs • S. Korea -- 11 years • China -- 10 years

7. Real PCI (ppp) Growth 1960-90 • 12 times in Korea • 7 times in Japan • 6 in Egypt & Portugal • 5 in Indonesia and Thailand.

8. Regional Differences in PCI Growth (1965-90) • East Asia 5.5% • South Asia <2% • Subsahara <.25%

9. Transition Economics Disastrous Results (1990-93) • GDP declined 10% in Poland • GDP declined 45% in Russia • GDP declined 75% in Armenia

10. Capital alone does not generate development • Since 1990, Germany invested $1.1 trillion in East, • Unemployment in East Germany has risen above 25%

11. Uneven Employment Growth • US employment rate at historic peak • European unemployment still rising

12. New Economics • Best gets cheaper and cheaper • Function per $ continuously increasing • New goods & services being created more rapidly than ever • Value related to plentitude, not scarcity • Law of increasing returns • Networks grow in value exponentially • Getting more out of less material

13. Status of Development Theory • Variety of factors identified • Primary focus is economics • Specific events & periods explained • No theory universally applicable

14. Some Conclusions • Past achievements have been unconscious • We have experience of development, not knowledge effective everywhere. • The greatest achievements have not produced a generally applicable formula. • Conscious knowledge is a great power for accomplishment • Need for comprehensive theory

15. Theory Reveals Potentials • Social theory can accelerate growth as medicinal theory improves health. • Fundamental laws are known • Role of organs understood • Interaction & integration of systems • Stages of development • Preventative and curative treatments • Precise statistical measures for diagnosis

16. Purpose • To develop a comprehensive theory of social development that can be applied to increase the speed and efficacy of development efforts.

17. Scope of Project • Phase 1: Theoretical foundations & principles • Phase 2: Historical applications • Phase 3: Current & future applications

18. Purpose of this meeting • Phase 1 -- BIG PICTURE • Test rationality and consistency • Clarify our thinking • Challenge the ideas • Direct us to relevant ideas & resources

19. Agenda • Introduction • Opportunities & Barriers • Central Thesis • Emergence of New Activities • Powers of Organization • Infrastructure & Resources • Three Stages of Development • Internet • Conclusions & Next Steps

20. Issues • What questions should the theory answer?

21. Theory Must Help Us Understand • What powers have made the already great advances possible? • What more can be accomplished through the use of these powers?

22. Current Situation • There is potential to increase the speed of the social process. • Theory must be able to confirm or deny possibility of acceleration. • Theory should reveal the precise relationship between the factors required to achieve greater results.

23. Peace • Theory must evaluate impact of internal and external social stability on progress. • War is a destroyer of development. • Drains talents and resources. • End of Cold War. • Greater International Stability • Great reduction in expenses-$400 billion • Increase of pace of world development • Rapid re-allocation of resources • Rapid re-alignment of economies

24. Democracy • Provides stable & conducive basis for more rapid social progress. • Raises human aspiration • Encourages individual initiative for advancement • Release greater energy • Theory must explain the dynamics of the process by which the political and social factors impact on economic performance.

25. Social Velocity • Development is a function of the velocity of social transaction. • Theory must account for speed in the past and how it has shaped history and how the increasing speed will shape the future.

26. Technological Applications • Gap between innovation, diffusion and application. • Wide variation within and between countries. • Significant determinant of social policy. • Theory needs to explain variations and shows how they act as determinants of developments.

27. Global Growth Engines • Shift from single or a few local centers to multiple centers. • Increase overall momentum of world energy. • Theory can not be limited to national policies. • Must look at development of global society.

28. Essential factors are available for faster growth • Education • Technology • Information • Investment • Management know-how

29. Theory must explain • The process by which new potentials are created & their role in development. • How potentials combine and intersect to determine its speed and direction? • Why achievements fall significantly below the maximum potential? • What are the unseen barriers to the process?

30. Barriers to Development • Limited Perception • Outdated Attitudes • Anachronistic Behaviors

31. Perceptual Walls Limit Further Development • Most common problem is that society is unable to envision its own future. • Tendency to see potentials as unattainable obstacles. • We still have a significant number of perceptual barriers today.

32. Outdated attitudes not physical barriers are the most persistent obstacles to human development. • Distrust of new inventions • Distrust of new ideas • Today we insist on our privilege to maintain outdated attitudes

33. Anachronistic behaviors also retard development • High birth rates • Indian Gold • UNDP $40 Billion

34. The theory must reflect the role of man in both determining and overcoming self-imposed limits on social progress.

35. Development is • a process, not a program or result • the upward directional movement of society from lesser to greater levels of energy, efficiency, quality, productivity, complexity, comprehension, enjoyment and accomplishment.

36. Central Thesis • Development occurs by the creation of higher levels of organization in the society capable of accomplishing greater acts with more efficient use of social energies. • People’s energy, knowledge, aspiration, skill & attitudes drive development. • Society develops by organizing knowledge, human energies & material resources.

37. Universal Principles • Principles of development are applicable to all fields of social life. • Principles of development are the same for individuals, organizations, nations and global community.

38. Three Social Processes • Survival • Growth • Development

39. Types of Development • Subconscious learning through trial and error experience. • Conscious initiative from knowledge to action. • Natural vs. Planned development

40. Green Revolution -- Context • Subsistence agriculture • Dependence on imports • Threat of severe famine • Commitment to self-sufficiency

41. Green Revolution -- Strategy 1 • Induction of advanced production technology • Seed import and replication • National demonstration plots • Attractive price & assured market for farmers • FCI to distribute surplus production to food deficit areas

42. Green Revolution -- Strategy 2 • Increased import and domestic production of fertilizers • Expanded warehousing facilities • Reorganization of agricultural research & education under ICAR • Higher pay and status for scientists

43. Green Revolution -- Results • FAO projection foodgrain 10% growth by 1970 • Actual growth 50% by 1970 • Self-sufficiency in five years • 100% in 10 years

44. Green Revolution – Conclusions • Rare instance of conscious development. • People’s accomplishment, not just gov’t • Technology--valuable input, but not the key • Tapped farmers’ preparedness & aspiration • Created new organizations to supply missing links in society • Elevated entire social organization of agriculture in the country

45. Some Questions • Why have so many other planned development initiatives failed? • Under what circumstances can the role of government be taken over by society?

46. Emergence of New Activitiesin Society • What is the process that stimulates the emergence of new organizations? • What are the stages through which its proceeds? • What are the agents that determine its direction?

47. Steps in the Process • Social Preparedness • Initiative of the Pioneers • Social Imitation • Multiplier Effect • Social Organization • Institutionalization • Cultural assimilation through family

48. Three Conditions Determine Level of Social Preparedness • Energy • Awareness • Aspiration

49. Energy • Existence of surplus energy to support movement from one level to another. • Available when society not fully absorbed in meeting the challenges at current level. • Surplus is a measure of mastery and accomplishment at the previous level. • The generation of new ideas, scientific experimentation and technical innovation are signs of surplus energy. • Energy is the fuel for growth of individual, organization and societies.

50. Awareness • Energy creates the circumstance but requires awareness of potentials to produce results. • Awareness can grow naturally or be thrust on a community. • Speed of development increases as awareness spreads.