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North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): How well can we monitor U.S. droughts and flooding?. Michael B. Ek 1 , Youlong Xia 1, 2 , and NLDAS team*. 1 Environmental Modeling Center (EMC ), NCEP, College Park, MD 2 IMSG at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, Maryland

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slide1

North American

Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS):

How well can we monitor

U.S. droughts and flooding?

Michael B. Ek1, Youlong Xia1,2, and NLDAS team*

1Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), NCEP, College Park, MD

2IMSG at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, Maryland

*NLDAS team: Collaboration scientists from EMC, CPC, NESDIS, NWS/OHD, NASA/GSFC, USDA, Princeton Univ., Univ. Washington

Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) , 25-26 February 2014, Washington, DC.

slide2

OUTLINE

1. NLDAS Configuration

2. NLDAS Drought/Flooding Analysis, Monitoring, and Application

3. Evaluation/Validation of NLDAS Products

4. Objective/Optimal Blends of NLDAS Drought

Indices - An Initiative

5. Summary and Future Work

slide3

1. NLDAS Configuration

Acknowledgments:

NLDAS project was supported by NOAA/OGP GAPP Program, NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program, NOAA/CPO CPPA Program (Climate Program of the Americas), and NOAA/CPO MAPP Program (Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections).

slide4

NLDAS Collaboration Partners

NLDAS Development

NCEP/EMC: Michael Ek, Youlong Xia, Jiarui Dong, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei

Princeton University: Eric Wood, Justin Sheffield, Ming Pan

NASA/GSFC: Christa Peters-Lidard, David Mocko

NWS/OHD: Victor Koren, Brian Cosgrove

University of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier, Ben Livneh

NLDAS Products Application

NCEP/CPC: Li-Chuan Chen, Kingtse Mo

USDA: Eric Luebhusen, U.S. Drought Monitor Author Group

NASA/GSFC: HualanRui, Guang-Di Lou

NCEP/EMC: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng

NLDAS Input Data Support

NCEP/CPC: Ming-Yue Chen, Wesley Ebisuzaki, NCEP/EMC: Ying Lin

slide5

•NLDAS is a multi-model land modeling and data assimilation system…

• …run in uncoupled mode driven by atmospheric forcing

(using surface meteorology data sets)…

• …with “long-term” retrospective and near real-time output of

land-surface water and energy budgets.

slide7

NLDAS

Drought Monitor

NLDAS

Drought Prediction

Anomaly and percentile for six variables and three time scales:

• Soil moisture, snow water, runoff, streamflow, evaporation, precipitation

• Current, Weekly, Monthly

NCEP/EMC NLDAS website

www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas

slide8

Distribution of NLDAS Products

NCEP/EMC NLDAS Website

EMC public sever

ldas3 and nomad6

NASA NLDAS Website

NASA GES DISC System

The user can subset NLDAS datasets by region and/or by variable using the GES DISC\'s Mirador search tool (hourly, monthly)

slide9

2. NLDAS Drought/Flooding Analysis, Monitoring, and Application

Acknowledgments:

NLDAS project was supported by NOAA/OGP GAPP Program, NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program, NOAA/CPO CPPA Program (Climate Program of the Americas), and NOAA/CPO MAPP Program (Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections).

slide10

NLDAS Drought Monitor – Default Plots

Soil Moisture

Ek et al.,

GEWEX News, 2011

Total Runoff

Routed

Streamflow

ET

slide13

Four-model ensemble mean total column soil moisture percentile

(January 2010 – February 2014)

slide14

NLDAS Flood Monitoring

Ensemble mean daily streamflow anomaly (m3/s)

Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee

20 August – 17 September 2011

slide15

NLDAS Flood Monitoring

Ensemble mean daily streamflow anomaly (m3/s)

Superstorm Sandy

29 October – 04 November 2012

slide16

NLDAS Flood Monitoring

Ensemble mean daily streamflow anomaly (m3/s)

Colorado Front Range Flooding

September 2013

slide17

Application NLDAS Products in USDM

Shading area is NLDAS product, contour

line is US drought monitor boundary

NLDAS GIS data (soil moisture and total runoff for daily, weekly, and monthly) are an integral part of the USDM process, both operationally and also as part of a weekly ppt sent to the USDM Listserv.

slide18

Application of NLDAS Products in USDA

Effect of dryness and wetness on cotton

slide19

NLDAS Support for NCEP/CPC

Drought Monitoring and Assessment Activity

NLDAS products directly fit in

Drought Briefing

slide20

3. Evaluation/Validation of NLDAS Products

Acknowledgments:

NLDAS project was supported by NOAA/OGP GAPP Program, NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program, NOAA/CPO CPPA Program (Climate Program of the Americas), and NOAA/CPO MAPP Program (Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections).

slide21

NLDAS Evaluation and Validation

Monthly streamflow anomaly correlation

over continental United States

(1979-2007 USGS measured streamflow)

Ensemble Mean

Energy flux validation from tower: net radiation, sensible heat, latent heat, ground heat (Xia et al., 2012a, NLDAS book chapter, in press)

Water flux:evaporation, total runoff/streamflow

State variables: soil moisture, soil temperature (Xia et al., 2012b, JAMC, in press), skin temperature, snow water equivalent, snow cover

JGR, Xia et al., 2012a, 2012b

Example -Simulation Skill

(Anomaly Correlation)

Xia et al., 2014a: Evaluation of Multi-Model Simulated Soil Moisture in NLDAS-2, J. Hydrology, in press.

slide22

4. Objective/Optimal Blends of NLDAS Drought Indices - An Initiative

Ensemble-mean Monthly Percentile

(NLDAS drought Indices) using:

- Top 1m soil moisture (SM1)

- Total column soil moisture (SMT)

- Evapotranspiration (ET)

- Total runoff (Q)

To support CPC Experimental Objective Blends of Drought Indicators

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/tools/edb/droughtblends.php

slide23

US Drought Monitor and its Statistics

(1)

Percentile

Percentile

Drought Classification

(2)

Drought area percentage for each state

(3)

(4)

slide24

Evaluation of Optimal Blended

NLDAS Drought Index in Texas

5 Drought Categories: D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4,D3-D4, D4-D4

JGR-Atmosphere, Xia et al, 2014b

Texas Drought

USDM

NLDAS Blend

slide25

2011-2012 Drought Variation:

Monthly Animation

Optimal Blended NLDAS Drought Index vs USDM 2011

NLDAS

- OBNDI generally captures USDM drought area percent, though sample size small for severe droughts.

- Reconstructed drought index reproducible and can be used as a reference dataset.

USDM

slide26

Land Data Information (LIS)

developed by NASA

GRACE-based

ground water storage

ESI-Evaporative Stress Index

VegDRI – Vegetation Drought Index

2012b

SPI – Standard Precipitation index

PDI – Palmer Drought Index

PDSI – Palmer Drought Severity Index

NLDAS simulation

include snowpack

(seasonal lag)

slide27

NLDAS Past, Present , and Future

Monitoring Mode

Past:

Phase 1 (2000-2005) – to establish NLDAS configuration, model evaluation framework, and collaboration partners.

Phase 2 (2006-2010) – to make long-term (30 years) retrospective NLDAS run using the improved forcing and upgraded models, to establish a quasi-operational NLDAS system to support NIDIS activities, and to assess NLDAS products using observations.

Present:

Phase 3 (2011-2014) – to maintain a quasi-operational NLDAS system, to transition all codes and scripts to NCEP central computer system, and to implement NLDAS system into NCEP operation.

slide28

NLDAS Past, Present , and Future

Monitoring Mode

Future:

EMC Land group will maintain two NLDAS systems: operational version (current ) and research version. Any upgrades from both forcing and land models from research community will be quickly implemented to the research version to make an internal test on EMC local server and/or NCEP WCOSS computer.

EMC Land group will collaborate NASA/GSFC to install their Land Information System (LIS) for NLDAS to construct a real data assimilation system to assimilate observed data from both in-situ and remote sensing.

EMC Land group will collaborate with NWS/OHD to extend a fine scale (~4 km) NLDAS system to support U.S. operational flood and drought monitoring and prediction.

slide29

NLDAS Past, Present , and Future

Monitoring Mode

Prospective:

EMC Land group will extend the NLDAS system from NLDAS domain to whole north America. The purpose is to support for North American Drought Monitor.

EMC Land group will collaborate NCEP/CPC and the other NLDAS partners to further extend NLDAS system from whole north America to the globe to support Global Drought Monitor being initiated by multi-countries as EMC is generating its LIS-GLDAS product.

EMC Land group will collaborate with its partners to improve land surface models (physics) and test the role of NLDAS initial conditions in coupled models for weather and climate predictions.

An ongoing work from Jesse Meng of EMC Land-Hydrology Group

slide30

References

Ek, M.B., Y. Xia, E.F. Wood, J. Sheffield, L. Luo, D. Lettemaier, and NLDAS team, 2011: North American Land Data Assimilation Phase 2 (NLDAS-2): Development and Applications, GEWEX news, 21, 6-7.

Xia, Y., 2007: Calibration of LaD Model in the Northeast of the United States Using Observed Annual streamflow, J. Hydrometeo., 8, 1098-1110.

Xia, Y., K.E. Mitchell, M.B. Ek, J. Sheffield, B. Cosgrove, and NLDAS team, 2012a: Continental-scale water and energy flux analysis and validation for the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2): 1. Intercomparison and application of model products, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D03109, doi:10.1029/2011JD016048.

Xia, Y., K.E. Mitchell, M.B Ek, B. Cosgrove, J. Sheffield, and NLDAS team, 2012b: Continental-scale water and energy flux analysis and validation for North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2): 2. Validation of model-simulated streamflow, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D03110, doi:10.1029/2011JD016051.

Xia, Y., M. EK, J. Sheffield, B. Livneh, M. Huang, H. Wei, S. Feng, L. Luo, J. Meng, and E. Wood, 2013a: Validation of Noah-simulated Soil temperature in the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-033.1.

Xia, Y., B. Cosgrove, M. B. Ek, J. Sheffield, L. Luo, E. F. Wood, K. Mo, and NLDAS team, 2013b: Overview of North American Land Data Assimilation System, Chapter 11 in Land Data Observation, Modeling and Assimilation, edited by Liang et al., World Scientific, 335-376.

Xia, Y., J. Sheffield, M. B. Ek, J. Dong, N. Chaney, H. Wei, J. Meng, and E. F. Wood, 2014a, Evaluation of Multi-Model Simulated Soil Moisture in NLDAS-2, J. Hydrology, in press.

Xia, Y., M.B. Ek, C. Peters-Lidard, D. Mocko, M. Svboda, J. Sheffield, and E.F. Wood, 2014b: Application of USDM Statistics in NLDAS-2: Objectively Blended NLDAS drought Index over the Continental United States, J. Geophys. Res., 119, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020994, in press.

Xia, Y., M. Ek, D. Mocko, C. Peters-Lidard, J. Sheffield, J. Dong, and E. Wood, 2014c: Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble. J. Hydrometeor., 15, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-058.1, in press.

slide31

Thank You!

Welcome to use NLDAS products

NOAA NLDAS Website

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/

NASA NLDAS Website

http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/

Comments and Suggestions to the following scientists:

LDAS (NLDAS, HRAP-NLDAS, GLDAS): [email protected]

NLDAS EMC: [email protected],NLDAS NASA:[email protected] , HRAP-NLDAS EMC: [email protected], GLDAS EMC: [email protected]

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