Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the carolinas
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 15

Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 98 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas . Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina. Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop Chapel Hill, NC 06 March 2008. Evaluating ENSO Impacts in the Carolinas.

Download Presentation

Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the carolinas

Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas

Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow

University of South Carolina

Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop

Chapel Hill, NC

06 March 2008


Evaluating enso impacts in the carolinas

Evaluating ENSO Impacts in the Carolinas

Stakeholders’ perceptions of ENSO impacts

Discerning and communicating variability of ENSO expression


Regional assessment

Regional assessment

  • North and South Carolina

  • COOP and USGS

    • 1950 – 2004

  • Monthly total precipitation and streamflow

  • Assign ENSO phase by month (CPC)

    • Cool (La Niña), neutral, warm (El Niño)

  • Assign AMO phase by year

    • Warm – 1950-1963, 1995-2004

    • Cool – 1964-1994

  • Each month assigned to a season

    • Winter = DJF, Spring = MAM, etc.

  • SAS Proc GENMOD

    • Gamma distribution

    • Significance at p ≤ .05


Enso and amo analysis

ENSO and AMO analysis


Winter amo n a

Precipitation

Winter – AMO n/a

Stream flow


Winter amo cool

Precipitation

Winter – AMO cool

Stream flow


Winter amo warm

Precipitation

Winter – AMO warm

Stream flow


Enso and amo analysis1

ENSO and AMO analysis

  • Winter – warm AMO, both precipitation and streamflow

    • El Niño > Neutral > La Niña


Enso and amo analysis2

ENSO and AMO analysis

  • Winter – warm AMO, both precipitation and streamflow

    • El Niño > Neutral > La Niña

  • Spring – similar relationships

    • Not as strong as winter

  • Summer – significant precipitation only

    • Both El Niño, La Niña > Neutral when AMO cool

    • Both El Niño, La Niña < Neutral when AMO warm

  • Autumn – both precipitation and streamflow

    • Greater regional differences – interior v coastal

    • Differences between precipitation and streamflow


Influence of tropical storms

Influence of tropical storms


Dams r us

Dams R Us

  • Analysis of only unregulated stations does not significantly alter the interpretation of the results.

  • Suggests actual inflow to reservoirs impacts their operations as much or more than weather.


Uses of these results methods

Uses of these results/methods

  • Hydrologic modeling

    • Effect of interannual and multidecadal phase

    • Both short- and long-term scenarios

  • Value of subregional analysis for water management and planning

    • Climate driven interannual weather patterns do vary over the study area

  • Provides another perspective of the impacts of land use change

  • Streamflow is more important than precipitation for some sectors

    • Analysis may provide a basis for seasonal differentiation among these sources of water


Regional drought implications

Regional drought implications

  • Prior knowledge that La Niña is associated with dry winter conditions in the southeast

  • These results show this effect is associated with the warm phase AMO

  • Providing AMO and ENSO phases with monitor reports and seasonal forecasts would make them more information rich


Drought implications example

Drought implications example

  • Telephone surveys of horticultural industry in NC/SC

  • “If drought continues residential planting will be minimal due to watering restrictions”

  • Planting decisions are made months in advance

    • Influenced by an indirect effect

  • Some do their own monitoring to stay abreast of local conditions


Additional acknowledgements

Additional acknowledgements

  • Jinyoung Rhee, PhD – USC Geography

  • Graduate students

    • Kirsten Lackstrom, Richard Murphy, Sara Yorty

  • Undergraduate students

    • Lauren Felker, Grandon Wilson


  • Login