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The Poverty Challenge in Northern Ireland Mike Tomlinson Sociology and Social Policy

The Poverty Challenge in Northern Ireland Mike Tomlinson Sociology and Social Policy Queen’s University Belfast CASE Social Exclusion Seminar LSE, 10th December 2003. Why a PSE survey?. a) no publicly available income data (new earnings survey, LFS, FES, CHS)

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The Poverty Challenge in Northern Ireland Mike Tomlinson Sociology and Social Policy

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  1. The Poverty Challenge in Northern Ireland Mike Tomlinson Sociology and Social Policy Queen’s University Belfast CASE Social Exclusion Seminar LSE, 10th December 2003

  2. Why a PSE survey? a) no publicly available income data (new earnings survey, LFS, FES, CHS) b) no NI-wide poverty survey since Townsend (1968) c) Robson and Noble multiple deprivation indexes and (new) Targeting Social Need d) equality monitoring deficits e.g. social security data, religion, children

  3. Key objectives: a) to provide a baseline measurement of PSE in N. Ireland b) to provide data on the extent to which poverty impacts across the nine dimensions of equality specified in Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998; and c) to provide data which allow Northern Ireland to be compared with the results of the British PSE Survey, HBAI and poverty levels in the Republic of Ireland.

  4. Measurement of poverty – two broad approaches 1. Income based measures eg households below 50% mean or 60% median 2. Income and deprivation indicators combined ‘Consistent poverty’ measure ‘Consensual poverty’ measure

  5. Different equivalence scales PSE NI weekly household incomes Raw PSE McClOECD RoI Mean 370.1 304.8 343.9221.3 205.7 Median 290.0 236.4 270.0170.0 162.2

  6. PSE1 McClements2Modified RoI (A) OECD First Adult 0.70 0.611.0 1.00 Spouse 0.30 0.390.5 0.66 Other Second Adult 0.45 0.460.5 0.66 Third Adult 0.45 0.420.5 0.66 Subsequent Adults 0.45 0.360.5 0.66 Children aged < 14yrs 0.35 0.200.3 0.33 Children aged 14yrs + 0.30 0.300.5 0.33 Notes 1. The PSE scale weights the first child at 0.35 and each additional child at 0.3. If the head of the household is a lone parent 0.1 is added. 2. The McClements scale has more age groups than shown above: 0-1 = 0.09; 2-4 = 0.18; 5-7 = 0.21; 8-10 = 0.23; 11-12 = 0.25; 13-15 = 0.27; 16 and over = 0.36.

  7. Proportion of persons in households below relative income thresholds using different equivalence scales

  8. Steps in the consensual poverty measure • Survey 1: which items are ‘necessities’? • Survey 2: necessities which people can’t afford • Select necessities which are robust indicators of deprivation • Maximise difference between ‘poor’ and ‘non-poor’ groups and minimise the difference within those groups • Produce poverty threshold

  9. Necessities – examples (1)Omnibus HaveCan’t ‘necessary’afford FOOD Fresh fruit & veg every day 92845 HOUSING Pay heating/electricity/’phone bills on time 99918 Replace worn out furniture 796728 CLOTHES Warm, waterproof coat 93915 Good clothes for job interviews 86856 New not 2nd hand clothes 62916 INFORMATION Telephone 81953

  10. Necessities – examples (2)OmnibusHaveCan’t ‘necessary’afford DURABLE GOODS Replace/repair goods e.g. fridge, washing machine 957523 Car5371 12 PERSONAL FINANCES Access to decent pension 945724 Home contents insurance 897812 SOCIAL Family days out 86747 One weeks annual holiday away from home 605724

  11. Which necessities do poor households lack? % Replacing worn out furniture 77 Regular savings (£10 per month) 72 One week holiday 67 Replacing/repairing fridge/washing machine 66 Access to a decent pension 61 Enough to pay heating, electricity, phone bills on time 25 Enough to keep home decently decorated 37 Home contents insurance 35 Good clothes for job interviews 21 Two pairs of strong shoes 20 New not 2nd hand clothes 19 Fresh fruit and veg every day 16 Meal with meat or fish every other day 11

  12. Combining low income and deprivation Living in Ireland – ‘consistent poverty’ 1 of 8 pre-determined items plus low income (60 per cent of median) PSE – ‘consensual poverty’ 3 of 29 items defined by popular consensus plus low income

  13. Baseline poverty measure: 29.6% of households were in poverty 37.4% of children were growing up in poor households 185,000 of Northern Ireland's households were in poverty 502,000 people were living in poor households 148,900 children were growing up in poor households

  14. Poverty and Inequality – Section 75 [29.6] Poverty rates by religion of HR 25% of Protestant households 36% of Catholic households (a ratio of 1:1.44) by national identity(not a Section 75 dimension) 25% of ‘British’ households 37% of ‘Irish’ households

  15. Poverty and Inequality – Section 75… [29.6] Poverty rates by political opinion 19% Ulster Unionist Party 30% SDLP 32% DUP 43% Sinn Féin (a ratio of 2.26:1UUP)

  16. Poverty and Inequality – Section 75… [29.6] Poverty rates by ‘race’ 19% ethnic minority groups by sexual orientation 48% same sex 44% bi-sexual Not reliable or significant

  17. Poverty and Inequality – Section 75… [29.6] Poverty rates by age

  18. Poverty and Inequality – Section 75… [29.6] Poverty rates bymarital status 21% married or cohabiting 39% single 46% divorced 54% separated 67% lone parents

  19. RESULTS • Poverty and Inequality – Section 75… • [29.6] Poverty rates bygender 25% of all men were living in poor households 29% of all women (a ratio of 1: 1.16) Of all adults in poor households: 57 per cent were women

  20. Poverty and Inequality – Section 75… [29.6] Poverty rates by disability 56% households with one or more disabled people 29% households without disability (a ratio of 1.93:1) 100% of the households in which no-one was working and which contained someone sick or disabled were in poverty

  21. Poverty and Inequality – Section 75… [29.6] Poverty rates, with or without dependants 36% childless households in which one adult was caring for another adult, in their own household or elsewhere (18% of all poor households) 32% households caring for children (19% of all poor households)

  22. Poverty and Inequality – 64% of individuals have below average incomes (60% in Britain). Top 40% of households together possess 67% of the total household income Gini coefficient for Northern Ireland: 1998/99 38 2002/03 42

  23. Northern Ireland compared – east/west

  24. Northern Ireland compared – east/west Proportion of persons living in households below HBAI median income thresholds

  25. Northern Ireland compared – north/south Proportion of persons in ‘consistent’ poverty (Ireland, North and South)

  26. Northern Ireland compared – north/south • Proportion of persons in ‘overall’ poverty – (Ireland, North and South)

  27. RoI: Overall <60% Mean* GB: HBAI <60% Mean RoI: Overall <70% Median PSE GB: HBAI <70% Median RoI: Overall <50% Mean* GB: HBAI <50% Mean RoI: Overall <60% Median GB: HBAI <60% Median RoI: Consistent <60% Mean* RoI: Consistent <50% Mean* 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 N. Ireland poverty rates, using different methods of calculation – proportions of persons (*households)

  28. Labour market exclusion

  29. Poverty and conflict Poverty rate Catholics Protestants (36) (25) Close relative killed 54 30 Personally injured 40 33 Relative injured 48 26 Witnessed murder 48 39 Witnessed 3 or more ‘troubles’ 42 25 Knows people killed & injured 47 24 Severe troubles experience 52 20

  30. Download report at www.democraticdialogue.org Online necessities questionnaire is at: www.qub.ac.uk/ssp/webpages/pse.htm

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