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Allan Rivlin, Partner Peter D. Hart Research

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P e t e r D HART RESEARCH A S S O C I A T E S Allan Rivlin, Partner Peter D. Hart Research McCain Wraps Up GOP Nomination 49% 72% 38% 36% 37% 41% 51% 55% 51% 65% 39% 67% 52% 34% 55% 51% 60% 45% 47% 90% 42% 52% 60% 61% 50% 60% 33% 61% 34% 48% 37%

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slide1

P e t e r D

HART

RESEARCH

A

S

S

O

C

I

A

T

E

S

Allan Rivlin, Partner

Peter D. Hart Research

mccain wraps up gop nomination
McCain Wraps Up GOP Nomination

49%

72%

38%

36%

37%

41%

51%

55%

51%

65%

39%

67%

52%

34%

55%

51%

60%

45%

47%

90%

42%

52%

60%

61%

50%

60%

33%

61%

34%

48%

37%

61%

33%

79%

34%

41%

McCain-1,334

43%

51%

Huckabee-278

44%

36%

democrats look toward denver
Democrats Look Toward Denver

68%

60%

59%

61%

39%

67%

80%

56%

58%

57%

58%

61%

51%

38%

54%

68%

51%

54%

53%

64%

57%

52%

67%

60%

74%

64%

49%

76%

54%

49%

55%

49%

70%

55%

67%

61%

Pledged Delegates

56%

57%

51%

Obama-1,404

75%

Clinton-1,249

Needed to win: 2,025(including super-delegates)

76%

democratic delegate allocation percentages based on the 2 candidate vote
Democratic Delegate AllocationPercentages based on the 2-candidate vote

Winner take all

0

4

50%

Fourdelegates

0

1

3

4

2

15%

37.5%

62.5%

85%

Fivedelegates

0

1

2

3

4

5

15%

30%

70%

50%

85%

remaining states in april may
Remaining States in April/May
  • April 22nd – Pennsylvania – 158 delegates
  • May 3rd – Guam – 4 delegates
  • May 6th – 187 delegates
    • Indiana (72)
    • North Carolina (115)
  • May 13th – West Virginia – 28 delegates
  • May 20th – 103 delegates
    • Kentucky (51)
    • Oregon (52)
remaining states in june
Remaining States in June
  • June 3rd - 31 delegates
    • Montana (16)
    • South Dakota (15)
  • June 7th – Puerto Rico - 55 delegates
  • Super-Delegates – 796
    • Can vote their conscience
    • Democratic members of Congress, DNC committee members, distinguished party leaders
  • Florida and Michigan issue
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